试析破产犯罪之罪过形式

破产犯罪在我国属新兴形态犯罪,有关刑事立法极不完善。因此,颇有从立法论的角度予以探讨的必要。就罪过形式来讲,各国(地区)为增强破产犯罪构成要件的堵截功能,或采用过错推定或降低证明标准,或采用设立过失犯方法。而于我国,则宜采用后一种方法。这不仅仅是满足实践操作的需要,也是破产过失行为该当刑罚性的体现。     

主体性德育观与职校德育创新

确立主体性德育观是以就业为导向创新职校德育工作的必要前提。本文在阐述主体性德育观的基本内涵及特点基础上,就职校确立主体性德育观的必要性及如何运用主体性德育观开展职校德育创新的现实策略进行了积极思考。     

The effectiveness of imprecise probability forecasts

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of algorithmically deriving precise probability forecasts from imprecise forecasts. We provide an empirical evaluation of precise probabilities that have been derived from two types of imprecise probability forecasts: probability intervals and probability intervals with second-order probability distributions. The minimum cross-entropy (MCE) principle is applied to the former to derive precise (i.e. additive) probabilities; expectation (EX) is used to derive precise probabilities in the latter case. Probability intervals that were constructed without second-order probabilities tended to be narrower than and contained in those that were amplified by second-order probabilities. Evidence that this narrowness is due to motivational bias is presented. Analysis of forecasters' mean Probability Scores for the derived precise probabilities indicates that it is possible to derive precise forecasts whose external correspondence is as good as directly assessed precise probability forecasts. The forecasts of the EX method, however, are more like the directly assessed precise forecasts than those of the MCE method.     

A model of calibration for subjective probability distributions and its application to aggregation of judgements

A simple model is proposed of the statistical structure underlying the calibration of auditors' subjective probability distributions for account balances, and potentially for other unknown quantities. The model relates calibration curve shape to two parameters which represent over- or underconfidence and over- or underestimation. It is fitted to data from expert auditors. Different types of account appear to have different calibration characteristics. The model helps predict approximately the effects on calibration of aggregating individual subject distributions. Aggregation improves accuracy, but produces a strong tendency towards underconfidence. One aggregation method, predicting the best judgement in the group and using it as the group judgement, is found to be quite effective, much better than averaging the fractiles of individual distributions.     

Effects of difficulty on judgemental probability forecasting of control response efficacy

A judgemental control task was framed as a problem of medical decision making. The control parameter of a recursive system (i.e. a patient) was initially set so that output (i.e. a diagnostic index) fell outside a designated criterion range (corresponding to health). Subjects were told to bring the system's output into the designated range by resetting this control parameter (by specifying the dose of a drug). After each of these control responses, they made a probabilistic forecast that it would have the desired effect. It was found that these forecasts were more overconfident when the control task was more difficult but that the reason for this varied. When difficulty was manipulated across subjects, there was little evidence that lower control performance was associated with any lowering of the probabilistic forecasts. When difficulty was manipulated within subjects, they did lower their forecasts for more difficult task variants but did so insufficiently. In fact, relations between probabilistic forecasts of control response efficacy and proportion of those responses that were actually effective was linear with a slope of 0.44.     

论判决书的潜在功能--从刘涌案谈起

判决书在现代社会承载着重要的功能：确保判决的正当性与权威性，缓解社会矛盾；遏制司法腐败，促进司法公正；提高法官素质，造就优秀法官；推动民众参与司法，促进司法民主化。要使判决书在我国发挥上述潜在功能，还需现实的努力。     

Subjective confidence in forecasts

Forecasts have little value to decision makers unless it is known how much confidence to place in them. Those expressions of confidence have, in turn, little value unless forecasters are able to assess the limits of their own knowledge accurately Previous research has shown very robust patterns in the judgements of individuals who have not received special training in confidence assessment: Knowledge generally increases as confidence increases. However, it increases too swiftly, with a doubling of confidence being associated with perhaps a 50 per cent increase in knowledge. With all but the easiest of tasks, people tend to be overconfident regarding how much they know These results have typically been derived from studies of judgements of general knowledge. The present study found that they also pertained to confidence in forecasts. Indeed, the confidence-knowledge curves observed here were strikingly similar to those observed previously. The only deviation was the discovery that a substantial minority of judges never expressed complete confidence in any of their forecasts. These individuals also proved to be better assessors of the extent of their own knowledge Apparently confidence in forecasts is determined by processes similar to those that determine confidence in general knowledge. Decision makers can use forecasters assessments in a relative sense, in order to predict when they are more and less likely to be correct. However, they should be hesitant to take confidence assessments literally. Someone is more likely to be right when he or she is ‘certain’than when he or she is ‘fairly confident’; but there is no guarantee that the certain forecast will come true.     

How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions

The reported experiment took place in a professional forecasting organization accustomed to giving verbal probability assessments (‘likely’, ‘probable’, etc.). It attempts to highlight the communication problems caused by verbal probability expressions and to offer possible solutions that are compatible with the forecasters overall perspective on their jobs Experts in the organization were first asked to give a numerical translation to 30 different verbal probability expressions most of which were taken from the organization's own published political forecasts. In a second part of the experiment the experts were given 15 paragraphs selected from the organization's political publications each of which contained at least one verbal expression of probability. Subjects were again asked to give a numerical translation to each verbal probability expression The results indicate that (a) there is a high variability in the interpretation of verbal probability expressions and (b) the variability is even higher in context. Possible reasons for the context effect are discussed and practical implications are suggested.     

Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor

Here we evaluate the generalizability of calibration studies which have used general knowledge questions, and argue that on conceptual, methodological and empirical grounds the results have limited applicability to judgemental forecasting. We also review evidence which suggests that judgemental forecast probabilities are influenced by variables such as the desirability, imminence, time period and perceived controllability of the event to be forecast. As these variables do not apply to judgement in the domain of general knowledge, a need for research recognizing and exploring the psychological processes underlying uncertainty about the future is apparent.     

凉山彝区彝汉教师主观幸福感对比调查研究

本文采用总体幸福感量表与工作满意度量表相匹配抽样调查,探讨凉山彝区彝、汉教师主观幸福感现状,为有效了解该地区教师心理现状与生活质量提供参考。结果表明凉山彝区教师主观幸福感总体水平偏低,但彝族教师高于汉族教师;该地区教师工作满意度中等偏上,且与主观幸福感显著相关。说明凉山彝区彝、汉教师间主观幸福感具有显著差异,研究发现传统文化信仰、民族归属感、工作成就感等是这种差异产生的主要因素。