生油理论研究新进展

无机生油理论研究取得的新成果及无机成因油气田的不断发现．使我们不得不重新审视生油理论,以更好地指导油气勘探工作。深大断裂与油气资源分布的联系,不但促进了无机成因理论的产生,也为其提供了无可辩驳的事实依据。全球八个成矿时期与煤、油页岩等的匹配,为有机成因理论提供了有力的证据：但是二者都没能在实验室条件下生成与原油成分完全一致的产物,并且实验室并不能真实地模拟天然地质条件,从时间尺度上也是不可能的。两者争论的焦点仍集中于油气成因的判别指标上,油气成因理论仍然停留在假说阶段。笔者坚持二元论,认为在地球不同深度,存在不同的生烃机制。从生物气、低熟油到干酪根热降解生烃,再到深层生烃,而在上地幔超高压环境下,温度促进了无机合成烃类。关注中地壳低速高导层以及岩石圈级深大断裂不失为石油勘探工作的有益补充。     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A general perspective on time observables

I propose a general geometric framework in which to discuss the existence of time observables. This framework allows one to describe a local sense in which time observables always exist, and a global sense in which they can sometimes exist subject to a restriction on the vector fields that they generate. Pauli׳s prohibition on quantum time observables is derived as a corollary to this result. I will then discuss how time observables can be regained in modest extensions of quantum theory beyond its standard formulation.     

基于粗糙集和证据理论的决策规则提取

提出一种基于粗糙集和证据理论的两阶段决策规则提取算法, 该算法首先利用粗糙集中属性缩减的思想, 找出每条规则中的重要条件属性集合, 然后再基于证据理论中证据结合的思想进一步去掉重要条件属性集中的冗余条件属性, 从而得到最终的决策规则. 所给算法简化了属性集的约简, 对高维数据也是可行的. 实验结果表明, 利用该算法能够挖掘出高质量的决策规则.     

期望效用最优意义的最优保险研究

最优保险的研究具有重要的应用价值.针对停止损失保险,应用零效用原理,得到了对于风险厌恶型投保人的最优保费免赔额应满足的方程,为保险定价提供了理论依据.     

Retinex理论在航空影像增强中的应用

在航空影像的成像过程中,由于大气衰减、云层、烟雾、向阳、背阳等影响,使获取的影像质量下降,出现对比度降低、亮度不均、色彩失真等问题。针对这些问题,提出结合人眼颜色恒常性的典型计算理论Retinex理论,来模拟人眼视觉的感知模型,通过一个像素和其周围像素的明亮度比较运算,获得对象表面的反射率影像,并基于"灰度世界"假设,对图像进行了后处理。给出了Retinex算法在航空影像增强中的具体实现流程,并进行了计算机仿真实验。结合方差、平均梯度、清晰度等参数,验证了算法在图像对比度、细节增强和色彩保真等方面的效果。     

基于图论的平面机械系统仿真

在简要介绍了图论的基本思想和方法之后,具体阐述了如何运用图论结合矢量力学的方法来建立机械系统的数学模型,并举例说明了普通三维系统数学模型的建立过程。运用该方法编写了仿真软件VECDYNA,并用其对双杆复摆系统和曲柄滑块系统分别进行了仿真分析。并将其结果与ADAMS的仿真结果进行了对比,对仿真结果进行了验证。结果表明基于图论的多体动力学研究是研究机械系统仿真的一种有效、节省资源的方法。     

满足圆形极点、方差指标与H∞性能约束的满意容错控制

对一类具有范数有界不确定性的线性连续系统,研究了当执行器发生故障时的静态输出反馈满意容错控制问题。在更实际、更一般的执行器连续增益故障模型下,所设计的控制器确保闭环系统同时满足期望的区域极点指标、稳态方差指标和H∞范数指标约束。同时分析了容错控制中三类期望指标的相容性,并给出了静态输出反馈满意容错控制器存在的充分条件和设计方法。仿真算例验证了方法的有效性,并且通过与不考虑故障的系统比较,进一步说明对系统进行满意容错控制的必要性。     

基于状态信息的条件剩余寿命建模研究

根据监测到的设备状态信息预测其条件剩余寿命一直是基于状态维修中的关键问题。利用滤波理论,建立了基于状态信息的剩余寿命预测通用模型,并推导出采用极大似然估计法下参数估计的通式,使得在已知寿命服从其他任何分布形式时直接代入通式便可快速地得出其模型,从而预测其剩余寿命,省去了复杂繁琐的迭代过程。通过案例发现模型能够根据状态信息很好地预测其剩余寿命,并在不断更新状态信息的条件下越来越精确地预测其剩余寿命。     

Rough function model and rough membership function

Two pairs of approximation operators, which are the scale lower and upper approximations as well as the real line lower and upper approximations, are defined. Their properties and antithesis characteristics are analyzed. The rough function model is generalized based on rough set theory, and the scheme of rough function theory is made more distinct and complete. Therefore, the transformation of the real function analysis from real line to scale is achieved. A series of basic concepts in rough function model including rough numbers, rough intervals, and rough membership functions are defined in the new scheme of the rough function model. Operating properties of rough intervals similar to rough sets are obtained. The relationship of rough inclusion and rough equality of rough intervals is defined by two kinds of tools, known as the lower （upper） approximation operator in real numbers domain and rough membership functions. Their relative properties are analyzed and proved strictly, which provides necessary theoretical foundation and technical support for the further discussion of properties and practical application of the rough function model.