The combining of forecasts using recursive techniques with non-stationary weights

This paper evaluates six optimal and four ad hoc recursive combination methods on five actual data sets. The performance of all methods is compared to the mean and recursive least squares. A modification to one method is proposed and evaluated. The recursive methods were found to be very effective from start-up on two of the data sets. Where the optimal methods worked well so did the ad hoc ones, suggesting that often combination methods allowing ‘local bias’ adjustment may be preferable to the mean forecast and comparable to the optimal methods.     

Extracting information shocks from the Bank of England inflation density forecasts

This paper shows how to extract the density of information shocks from revisions of the Bank of England's inflation density forecasts. An information shock is defined in this paper as a random variable that contains the set of information made available between two consecutive forecasting exercises and that has been incorporated into a revised forecast for a fixed point event. Studying the moments of these information shocks can be useful in understanding how the Bank has changed its assessment of risks surrounding inflation in the light of new information, and how it has modified its forecasts accordingly. The variance of the information shock is interpreted in this paper as a new measure of ex ante inflation uncertainty that measures the uncertainty that the Bank anticipates information perceived in a particular quarter will pose on inflation. A measure of information absorption that indicates the approximate proportion of the information content in a revised forecast that is attributable to information made available since the last forecast release is also proposed.     

基于云计算的天气预报系统实现

利用云计算技术,整合网络中云资源,实现天气预报系统,特别是利用Google Map做为信息集成的载体。     

“地平线欧洲”计划设计与管理的启示

 欧盟第九框架计划—— “地平线欧洲”计划于2021年启动，是迄今为止全球资助规模最大的科技创新计划。研究了欧盟在框架计划设计阶段采用的创新举措及其应用方式，提出了对中国科技计划的建议，包括加强前期研究设计、开展预见性研究、加强计划间衔接和支撑作用、鼓励“共同设计”理念、开放信息公开获取渠道等。