汽轮机汽封改造

文章通过对迷宫梳齿密封与王常春接触式蜂窝汽封的优缺点和工作原理进行了比较说明,介绍了王常春接触式蜂窝汽封在汽轮机组上的应用情况,以及进行汽封改造后所取得的效果。     

基于可靠性的低压配电系统微网群划分研究

随着国家鼓励分布式发电政策的颁布和实施,越来越多的分布式电源以户用型微电网的形式接入到配电网中。户用微电网的建设实现了分布式电源的就地消纳,显著提供了低压配电系统的供电可靠性。然而,在故障状态下,户用微电网孤岛运行模式却未充分利用相应的分布式资源。为解决这一问题,首先提出了含分布式电源的户用微网群划分指标——可孤岛概率;然后,基于该指标构建了户用微网群的最优划分模型,分析了其目标函数和约束条件,并进一步提出了相应的求解方法。最后,算例仿真结果表明:提出的户用微网群的划分模型,可以显著提高低压配电系统的供电可靠性,在配置较少的划分开关下也可达到较为理想的效果。     

卫星半物理仿真系统实时接口研究与实现

本文介绍了卫星半物理仿真系统的组成及实时接口方案设计，给出了其硬件设计技术及软件设计技术，提出了采用以太网将各种数据采集计算机及数据处理计算机联在一起的设计方案，并进行了可靠性分析。     

1553B总线系统的可靠性机制

1553B多路复用数据总线系统已广泛地应用于现代军用飞机中,成为其综合航电系统的核心部分,因此,1553B总线系统的可靠性直接影响着飞机的战斗力及其自身的飞行安全。本文将从总线标准、系统设计及从部件到系统的测试方面,讨论1553D总线系统的可靠性问题。     

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

This paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non-probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical-statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting systems.     

Markov可修系统的蒙特卡罗方法

假设各部件的寿命分布和修理时间分布都为指数分布,且分布参数已知,本文用蒙特卡罗方法计算了单部件、双部件和三单件构成的串联、并联和串并联系统的可靠度、瞬时可用度、稳态可用度和故障频度等特征数量指标。为了检验蒙特卡罗模拟结果的准确程度,同时给出解析结果与之对比,表明该方法应用的正确性。     

系统冗余优化设计的启发式算法

可靠性设计是系统设计的重要环节,系统冗余设计是可靠性设计的重要方法,也是提高系统可靠性的有效手段。在Sharma算法思路的基础上,考虑了新的试探方式,试图给“最有可靠度效益的级”增加冗余,并采用级替换因子判断给系统中的哪一级增加冗余对系统最有效益。在替换因子的考虑上,提出两种算法,并举例说明算法如何在部件可靠度确定的情况下,考虑系统设计代价(费用,重量,体积等),优化配置部件的冗余数。     

Residual Strength Study for Damaged Hull and Risk Analysis and Formal Safety Assessment

Residual strength assessment and prediction has been introduced in the project studies, including the determination of risk failure scenario, the change law of structural capacity and load effects in the damage of ship structure, the models for structural response and ultimate strength analysis, and dynamical model of reliability assessment. In addition, the project has improved the calculation method of ship ultimate load -bearing capacity, and studied the change law, assessment criteria of residual strength, and the method of predicting lifetime for aging ships. The valuable conclusions have been obtained by a large number of engineering calculations. The project and its extended results can provide theoretical foundation and background condition to make risk rule and modem design system, and can implement risk analysis and formal safety assessment for the marine world. The results will improve design quality and shipping safety of ship and offshore and enhanced their society and economic benefits.     

Poisson过程的可靠性增长模型(Ⅲ)——评定与预测

本文提出了两个新模型。基于定数和定时截尾试验数据,用最小二乘方法和极大似然方法,研究了在第i阶段失效时间遵从强度(或均值率)为λ_i的Poisson过程的可修系统的可靠性评定与预测问题。这些结果能用于单参数指数分布的无替换(或有替换)定数(或定时)截尾试验的情况。     

复杂电子设备研制阶段数据的可靠性综合评估

利用复杂电子设备研制阶段故障数据 ,综合评估其可靠性水平 ,可以为复杂电子设备的定型及可靠性鉴定提供依据。为了对复杂电子设备研制阶段各试验数据进行可靠性综合评估 ,在可靠性增长的杜安模型基础上 ,引入不同试验条件下的环境折合系数 ,建立了复杂电子设备的可靠性综合评估模型 ,并提出了相应的综合评估方法 ,最后给出了所述方法与模型的一个工程应用实例。