论民事诉讼收费的不合理性与改革

权威教科书认为诉讼收费制度有多重“意义”,这只是一种假想。我国诉讼收费存在制度上的不合理,如:按争议金额收取诉讼费不合理,诉讼退费不合理,缓、减、交诉讼费不合理,等等。福利国家形态的出现、公力救济取代私力救济,以及诉讼模式的转变等是诉讼不收费的理论基点。基于我国实际情况,完全实现免费诉讼是不现实的,可以实行有限的有偿主义。     

论技术理性研究的哲学路径

实践哲学突破了传统哲学对哲学基本问题的狭隘理解,提出理性思维有"认知型"和"筹划型"两种思维方式.人的"筹划型"思维方式所形成的实践理性在技术哲学领域恰恰是技术理性.技术哲学必须以理性思维的"筹划型"思维方式为切入点,才能找到技术理性研究正确的哲学路径.只有这样才能使技术哲学研究真正地从"边缘"走向"内核".     

农业面源污染管理中补偿机制设计

首先建立了完全信息下政府的管理模型,然后利用激励理论,在不完全信息下设计1组契约来揭露农户真实的产出类型,建立了政府带审核手段的激励模型,给出了改进的补偿机制,并对模型的结果进行了讨论,得到了一个面源污染补偿的形成机制.新机制通过农户的"自我申报"实现了环境管理者的管理目标.最后通过算例说明了机制的有效性,并解释了效率损失的原因.     

科学预设的合理性及其法律应用

科学预设是作为科学活动的不证自明的前提的观念。其合理性问题的认识大致经历了从逻辑经验主义到历史主义,再到自然主义的变化过程。科学预设是科学理论建构的主导因素,也是科学合理性的普遍性原则和标准建构的前提或指南,科学哲学应提供一套高层的科学预设来指引科学活动,而不能因为预设的可误、可变化而否定其合理性。科学预设不仅能从不同的角度服务于侦查讯问,也是法庭审判中常见的语言现象。     

基于定性模拟的分组多属性逆向拍卖评标行为分析

网络逆向拍卖已经成为政府和大型企业集团集中采购的重要途径,分组多属性评标是当今普遍采用的评标机制.针对采购招投标现状,提出了分组多属性逆向拍卖概念,在评标专家有限理性的前提下,分析了评标机制中可能存在的问题,提炼出了专家评标工作行为变化各因素及相互作用关系图,建立了影响评标专家决策的定性模型.利用定性模拟技术对评标专家对立情绪等行为进行仿真研究,进而调整不同时刻的决策变量,仿真结果表明评标专家组之间对立情绪的累积现象是明显存在的,适时采取合适的管理措施对情绪的累积有一定的减缓作用,并给出了三点改进建议,以提高评标公平性.     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

考虑公平偏好和产品纵向差异化的产品定价

针对双寡头市场中两竞争性的企业考虑有限理性的公平偏好时的最优定价策略问题进行了研究。这两个竞争性的企业分别销售高质量产品和低质量产品。与传统完全理性的企业决策不同的是，两企业在决策时考虑了经典的公平偏好因素。结论表明：当单个企业考虑公平偏好时，两个企业均会采取降价策略来吸引更多的消费者；此外，处于不利不公平时企业的降价幅度大于处于有利不公平时企业的降价幅度。当两个企业考虑公平偏好时，双方都会降价，且它们降价的幅度比单个企业考虑公平偏好情形时的要大。在这种情况下，高质量企业的反应降价程度比低质量企业强烈，且总的降价额度与各感知参数和心理预期市场比例有关。     

The ecological rationality of explanatory reasoning

There is growing evidence that explanatory considerations influence how people change their degrees of belief in light of new information. Recent studies indicate that this influence is systematic and may result from people’s following a probabilistic update rule. While formally very similar to Bayes’ rule, the rule or rules people appear to follow are different from, and inconsistent with, that better-known update rule. This raises the question of the normative status of those updating procedures. Is the role explanation plays in people’s updating their degrees of belief a bias? Or are people right to update on the basis of explanatory considerations, in that this offers benefits that could not be had otherwise? Various philosophers have argued that any reasoning at deviance with Bayesian principles is to be rejected, and so explanatory reasoning, insofar as it deviates from Bayes’ rule, can only be fallacious. We challenge this claim by showing how the kind of explanation-based update rules to which people seem to adhere make it easier to strike the best balance between being fast learners and being accurate learners. Borrowing from the literature on ecological rationality, we argue that what counts as the best balance is intrinsically context-sensitive, and that a main advantage of explanatory update rules is that, unlike Bayes’ rule, they have an adjustable parameter which can be fine-tuned per context. The main methodology to be used is agent-based optimization, which also allows us to take an evolutionary perspective on explanatory reasoning.     

理性群体决策的概率集结研究

探讨如何集结多个专家的不确定性信息,以获得群体一致判断．首先分析群体理性存在的可能性;在此基础上,给出了几种集结个体概率的模型及算式,讨论了这些模型的特点,实际应用的可能性;最后,评述了Ｄａｌｋｅｙ个体概率集结不可能性定理中潜在的问题。得出几个研究的结论,并且提出了需要进一步研究的问题。     

证券市场中大股东“掏空”策略的演化博弈分析及调控

随着所有权从分散走向集中,大股东的行为在公司治理问题中的地位日益重要。针对此种情况,笔者从公司治理角度对大股东行为问题的现实背景进行分析,在此基础上通过建立演化博弈模型从有限理性的角度分析大、小股东博弈双方的演化稳定策略（ESS）,并且在博弈矩阵中引入监管力度因子,说明各参数变化对均衡结果的影响,从而为规范证券市场中大股东的行为提供决策参考。