A unified view of statistical forecasting procedures

A large number of statistical forecasting procedures for univariate time series have been proposed in the literature. These range from simple methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average, to more complex procedures such as Box–Jenkins ARIMA modelling and Harrison–Stevens Bayesian forecasting. This paper sets out to show the relationship between these various procedures by adopting a framework in which a time series model is viewed in terms of trend, seasonal and irregular components. The framework is then extended to cover models with explanatory variables. From the technical point of view the Kalman filter plays an important role in allowing an integrated treatment of these topics.     

Electrochromic effect in domain-inversion process in LiNbO3： Ru： Fe crystals

A reversible electrochromic effect accompanying domain-inversion during the electrical poling process in LiNbO3： Ru： Fe crystals at room temperature has been observed. In electrode area, both electrochromism and domain-inversion occur alternately, and electrochromism is also reversible during back-switch poling, which is experimentally verified and whose mechanism is briefly explained using a microstrncture ferroelectric model. In addition, because of the enhancing elcctrochromic effect, different from the undoped LiNbO3 crystals, the coercive filed （21.0 kV/mm or so） measured in LiNbO3： Ru： Fe is lower than its breakdown field, thus providing a possible new technique for realizing the domain-inversion by constant electric field rather than a pulsed one.     

基于连接的频繁集聚类算法

针对大型事务数据库中频繁集的多属性聚类问题,提出一种高效的频繁集聚类算法.以往聚类算法采用基于距离的计算方法,由于受到属性数据的制约,在频繁集挖掘中具有一定的限制.在属性聚类基础上,基于连接对频繁集进行聚类.在算法中先找出数据点的邻居和计算相似度,构造邻居矩阵;然后计算连接数目,确定邻居数目矩阵;最后通过设置判定函数和阈值确定聚类数.通过实验证明,算法能够不仅能有效地完成频繁集的多属性聚类问题,而且还可以进一步发现频繁集在某一层次的相关性.     

东风_7型内燃机车振动的分析

为解决东风_７型内燃机车存在的振动问题，对该机车振动的原因进行了分析，并对振动测试系统作了叙述。     

罚函数法在处理钻柱边界约束问题中的应用

将罚函数法应用于钻柱有限元分析中.并将罚函数法与降阶法和对角线叠加法进行了计算对比.结果表明.罚函数法(尤其在非线性变形或工况复杂情况下)计算较为精确。收敛性也较好.对惩罚因子的选取进行了探讨,结果表明,惩罚因子取10~5～10~8时,计算效果较好;钻柱的不同方向适当采用不同程度的惩罚,可提高收敛速度而不影响计算结果.     

Efficient algorithms for agglomerative hierarchical clustering methods

Whenevern objects are characterized by a matrix of pairwise dissimilarities, they may be clustered by any of a number of sequential, agglomerative, hierarchical, nonoverlapping (SAHN) clustering methods. These SAHN clustering methods are defined by a paradigmatic algorithm that usually requires 0(n ³) time, in the worst case, to cluster the objects. An improved algorithm (Anderberg 1973), while still requiring 0(n ³) worst-case time, can reasonably be expected to exhibit 0(n ²) expected behavior. By contrast, we describe a SAHN clustering algorithm that requires 0(n ² logn) time in the worst case. When SAHN clustering methods exhibit reasonable space distortion properties, further improvements are possible. We adapt a SAHN clustering algorithm, based on the efficient construction of nearest neighbor chains, to obtain a reasonably general SAHN clustering algorithm that requires in the worst case 0(n ²) time and space.Whenevern objects are characterized byk-tuples of real numbers, they may be clustered by any of a family of centroid SAHN clustering methods. These methods are based on a geometric model in which clusters are represented by points ink-dimensional real space and points being agglomerated are replaced by a single (centroid) point. For this model, we have solved a class of special packing problems involving point-symmetric convex objects and have exploited it to design an efficient centroid clustering algorithm. Specifically, we describe a centroid SAHN clustering algorithm that requires 0(n ²) time, in the worst case, for fixedk and for a family of dissimilarity measures including the Manhattan, Euclidean, Chebychev and all other Minkowski metrics.This work was partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and by the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung.     

Cs_2NaPrCl_6:Pr~(3+)离子谱的晶场分析

本文对 C s_2NaPrCl_6类型的含 Pr~(3+)的稀土络合物,在较接近实际对称 C(4h)近似下,用配位场方法研究了它们的能谱,所得结果与光谱实验值符合较好.     

孤东油田上第三系馆陶组上段生物标志层的沉积特征

对孤东油田馆上段四、五砂层组之间发育的生物标志层的特征进行了研究.这种生物组合形成于河湖相中,由于水介质条件突变,生物死亡并堆积成层.它不仅可以作为地层对比的标志,也可为解释沉积环境提供依据。     

重载列车装车地货流集中与装运方式问题探讨

针对铁路重载列车运输组织的装运作业环节，从产运总体角度出发，研究适应和配合干线的重载运输。为提高重载列车装运作业效率运用系统观点及技术经济分析等理论，并通过计算模拟分析，对有关重载列车装车地货物集运及其装车方式的选择等问题进行一些初步分析和探讨，提出有关结论和建议。     

采用k-均值聚类算法的资源搜索模型研究

针对当前海量信息存储对等网络系统中资源搜索技术效率较低的问题,提出了一种采用k-均值聚类分析的高效搜索模型.该模型利用资源描述框架(RDF)描述的元数据进行聚类分析,使得资源的搜索由全局变为局部,从而有效地提高了资源搜索效率;采用动态优化排序技术显著提高了查询的速度.通过子网分裂算法和节点备用算法增强了模型的可扩展性、安全性和可靠性.仿真结果表明,所提模型在查找时延和平均路径方面均比传统搜索模型更加高效、便捷.