The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on nowcasting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). We show that all three data categories positively impact on the accuracy of GDP nowcasts, whereby the effect is largest in the case of real activity data. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain an important ingredient for the nowcasting exercise. The subsequent analysis shows that the sectoral coverage of survey data, which is broader than that of timely available real activity data, as well as their information content stemming from questions focusing on agents' expectations, are the main sources of the ‘genuine’ predictive power of survey data. When the forecast period is restricted to the 2008–09 financial crisis, the main change is an enhanced forecasting role for financial data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

闽南地区农村住宅安全性现状及防灾建议

在对厦门市海沧区近9 000栋农村住宅的安全性和耐久性现状普查基础上,分析该地区农村住宅的结构类型分布特点和不同类型房屋的安全性等级分布.针对该地区农村住宅存在的安全性和耐久性问题,提出该地区农村住宅防御自然灾害,特别是防御地震灾害的相关建议.     

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use survey data on five bilateral exchange rates to provide empirical evidence of the fact that professional forecasters of foreign exchange rates behave irrationally, in the specific sense that they respond inaccurately to available information in the market when forming their predictions. In particular, we find systematic biases in the forecasts resulting in the overreaction of analysts to past information contained in the exchange rate dynamics: forecasters change their prediction more than it would be rational on the basis of past realized changes. In addition, forecasters are heterogeneous in their irrationality: low performers in previous periods show a more pronounced overreaction effect. This can be read as an indication of perpetration of past errors and continued inability to learn from the past. In the second part of the paper, we exploit the novel structure of our dataset, which consists of survey data extracted from the Bloomberg platform and readily available to anyone. This feature allows us to consider their own and others' past forecasts as part of the information set that analysts use in making their predictions. By using past forecasts as proxies for relevant macroeconomic variables, we find evidence that analysts fail to correctly process not only the information contained in the spot rate past dynamics but also the information in this broader set. We see this as confirmation of the existence of inefficiency and heterogeneity between low and high performers also when full information is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风机振动分析与故障诊断

应用振动分析方法、数据采集技术及诊断理论对某乙烯厂Ｅ－ＧＢ１０９风机进行了现场振动测量、信号的采集与分析诊断,找出了风机振动的原因。     

邵雍诗歌研究方法概述

近年来宋代理学家的诗歌逐渐成为宋诗研究中的一个热点,邵雍的诗歌也因此得到了学者的重视,产生了一些成果。因为邵雍理学家与文学家的双重身份,导致其诗歌具有理学和文学的双重特质,进而在对其诗歌的研究中,也具有了一些不同的方法与角度。具体而言,在现有的邵雍诗歌研究成果中,就存在就诗论理、就诗论诗、就诗论人以及就诗论艺等四个方法与角度。     

关于湛江地区农家书屋的调查报告

在对湛江地区农民进行问卷调查的基础上,阐述了村民的阅读情况和农家书屋运行的真实现状,提出了农家书屋建设过程中应注意的问题及对策。     

广西民族地区中学生生活压力事件问卷编制报告

在参考相关文献的基础上,从理论上构建了中学生生活压力事件问卷的大致结构,并形成了原始的调查问卷,对广西少数民族聚集地区的中学生先后进行了两次调查,运用探索性因素分析及项目分析对问卷的题项进行筛选后,正式确定了广西民族地区中学生生活压力事件问卷的题项及其结构;在第二次的调查中,运用分层面因素分析法进行了进一步分析,并检验了该问卷的信度、效度。     

用抽样调查法确定图书的平均出版年代与平均出版价格——以洛阳市图书馆保存本书库为例

在抽样调查理论的指导下,确定了保存本书库图书的平均出版年代、平均出版价格的估值区间,给出了平均出版年代、平均出版价格的正态分布密度函数,在此基础上确定了保存本书库所有图书在特定时间区间、价格区间内的数量分布情况,提出了优化馆藏结构的建议。     

全方位获取学科信息需求的探讨与实践

全面调研学科信息需求是开展学科服务的前提和基础。以安徽医科大学重点学科为例,结合问卷调查和已发论文的统计分析,提出了一种较为全面地了解学科信息需求的方法。     

实用的接触网杆距测量仪设计

根据滚轮在轨面上所走圈数计算得出滚轮所走的行程来准确地测量接触网施工中的杆距,做到精确测量和减少施工测量的工作强度。