信息不完全与资产组合理论的文献综述

介绍了信息不完全与资产组合理论的基本理论成果,指出作为信息情报科学与经济学的交叉学科,现代资产组合理论是这一领域最为成功和最活跃的理论.     

次贷危机下中国中小外贸企业面临的问题及对策

中国中小外贸企业在解决就业和拉动经济增长方面具有不可低估的作用，但是它的自身发展还存在问题。且在融资渠道、法律支持、政府直接支持以及信用担保等方面与国外发达国家相比尚有较大差距。基于此，中小外贸企业应加强自我完善，且政府应完善进出口政策性金融机构。     

Business failure prediction using decision trees

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models is emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high‐profile companies in the recent past. Consequently, a significant interest has been generated in business failure prediction within academia as well as in the finance industry. Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses have traditionally been the most popular approaches, but there are also a range of promising non‐parametric techniques that can alternatively be applied. In this paper, the relatively new technique of decision trees is applied to business failure prediction. The numerical results suggest that decision trees could be superior predictors of business failure as compared to discriminant analysis. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

加强高校财务风险防范的探讨

分析高校财务风险的成因及其表现形式,从建立和谐的高校财务公共关系、建立权责清晰的财务管理关系、完善高校财务内控管理和强化财务人员职业教育提升履职素质等四个方面阐述了高校财务风险的防范措施。     

系统集成项目中的风险管理

以上海轨道交通7号线电源监控系统为背景，叙述了在系统集成项目中常见的风险类型，重点介绍了进行风险管理的四个步骤，即风险识别、风险分析、制定对策和风险监控．并在此基础上提出确保风险管理有效实施的改进策略．     

金融机具销售子系统的研究

根据金融机具企业产品的特征,采用C/S结构和B/S结构相结合的方案,研制开发了金融机具产品销售管理系统中的销售预测子系统,并以"JL302微型纸币清分机"为例,给出了销售预测子系统的几个实际运行界面以及功能流程图.结果表明此系统适合金融机具行业,具有用户操作简便、易于扩展,系统实用、可靠性较高等特点.     

真实可靠的会计信息是企业发展的基石

分析了造成会计信息质量不高的原因,提出了提高会计信息质量的有效措施,并进一步说明真实可靠的会计信息是企业发展的基石.     

过程论视野下的产业技术风险

从技术过程论来看,产业技术既是技术过程中的一个环节,其本身也可以视为一个动态变化的过程,产业技术风险具有区别于其他技术的风险特征。以技术过程论为工具,生产技术的次优性、产业技术的利益化以及产业技术的推广与应用不规范分别构成了产业技术风险的过程性成因。产业技术系统内各组分的不协同和来自社会、文化以及其他技术风险的外部影响而共同导致了风险的产生。     

呼吸道传染病空气传播的感染概率的预测模型

为了加强对空气传染病风险的理解和预测,综述了呼吸道传染病的空气传染特点、传染途径以及预测空气传染病感染风险的模型.基于病人呼出飞沫蒸发后剩余飞沫核(通常小于5μm)在空间均匀分布的假设,介绍了预测呼吸道传染病空气传播风险模型,其中重点介绍Wells-Riley方程的推导、验证及发展,并汇总了已有报道中呼吸道传染病的病毒量(quanta产生率).根据Wells-Riley方程研究了通风和通风量、病人呼出病毒量等对感染概率的影响.结果表明,通风可以显著降低感染概率,但对于某些极端的超级传播事件,还需要其他保护措施.     

Retail default prediction by using sequential minimal optimization technique

This paper employed sequential minimal optimization (SMO) to develop default prediction model in the US retail market. Principal components analysis is used for variable reduction purposes. Four standard credit scoring techniques—naïve Bayes, logistic regression, recursive partitioning and artificial neural network—are compared to SMO, using a sample of 195 healthy firms and 51 distressed firms over five time periods between 1994 and 2002. The five techniques perform well in predicting default particularly one year before financial distress. Furthermore, the prediction still remains sound even 5 years before default. No single methodology has the absolute best classification ability, as the model performance varies in terms of different time periods and variable groups. External influences have greater impacts on the naïve Bayes than other techniques. In terms of similarity with Moody's ranking, SMO excelled over other techniques in most of the time periods. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.