D-S理论在不确定性多属性决策中的应用

针对一类具有不确定性主观判断信息的多人多属性决策问题,给出了一种基于Ｄｅｍ ｐｓｔｅｒＳｈａｆｅｒ证据组合理论的分析方法,通过对不确定性信息进行二次融合,可以将该问题转化为普通的确定性多属性决策问题。最后,针对一个实际投资决策问题,给出了计算结果。     

Science,politics and regulation: The trust-based approach to the demarcation problem

Drawing on literature on values in science and a case-study of UK cancer policy, this paper argues for a novel account of the demarcation project in terms of trustworthiness. The first part of the paper addresses the relationship between science, politics and demarcation. In 2010, the UK government decided to pay more for cancer drugs than for drugs for other diseases; in 2016, this Cancer Drugs Fund was reformed so as to lower the evidential standards for approving cancer drugs, rather than paying more for them. Are these two ways of treating cancer as “special” importantly different? This paper argues that, if we the argument from inductive risk seriously, they seem equivalent. This result provides further reason to doubt the notion of demarcating science from non-science. However, the second part of the paper complicates this story, arguing that considerations of epistemic trust might give us reasons to prefer epistemic communities centred around “broadly acceptable” standards, and which are “sociologically well-ordered”, regardless of inductive risk concerns. After developing these claims through the cancer case-study, the final section suggests how these concerns might motivate novel versions of the demarcation project.     

Rip it up and start again: The rejection of a characterization of a phenomenon

In this paper, I investigate the nature of empirical findings that provide evidence for the characterization of a scientific phenomenon, and the defeasible nature of this evidence. To do so, I explore an exemplary instance of the rejection of a characterization of a scientific phenomenon: memory transfer. I examine the reason why the characterization of memory transfer was rejected, and analyze how this rejection tied to researchers’ failures to resolve experimental issues relating to replication and confounds. I criticize the presentation of the case by Harry Collins and Trevor Pinch, who claim that no sufficient reason was provided to abandon research on memory transfer. I argue that skeptics about memory transfer adopted what I call a defeater strategy, in which researchers exploit the defeasibility of the evidence for a characterization of a phenomenon.     

基于组合赋权-证据理论-模糊综合评价法的EPC模式下装配式建筑工程成本风险评价

在国家推动"智能建造和建筑工业化协同发展"的社会背景下,装配式建筑具有省时、省材、节能、利于环保等优点,因此被国家广泛推广.然而,装配式建筑项目成本较高,已严重阻碍其发展.基于工程总承包(engineering procurement con-struction,EPC)视角,运用博弈论组合赋权-证据理论-模糊综合评价...     

Computer simulation and the features of novel empirical data

In an attempt to determine the epistemic status of computer simulation results, philosophers of science have recently explored the similarities and differences between computer simulations and experiments. One question that arises is whether and, if so, when, simulation results constitute novel empirical data. It is often supposed that computer simulation results could never be empirical or novel because simulations never interact with their targets, and cannot go beyond their programming. This paper argues against this position by examining whether, and under what conditions, the features of empiricality and novelty could be displayed by computer simulation data. I show that, to the extent that certain familiar measurement results have these features, so can some computer simulation results.     

基于证据理论的大型工程投融资群体决策模型

目前,在大型工程项目中,对前期的投融资方案进行决策已经成为了几乎所有大型工程建设前期准备的重要组成部分。一个大型工程项目融资决策的成败将直接影响到项目的实施及最后的运营。本文基于证据理论的基本思想,研究了在大型工程环境下,投融资方案选择的群体决策问题。通过对mass函数构造方法的改进,引入了相对权重矩阵的概念,从而解决了投融资决策时各决策专家权重设置的问题,并进一步通过大型工程建设项目中具体的算例验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。     

项目组合管理能力评价

针对当前对项目组合管理能力进行评价需要解决能力体系构建和评价方法实现的问题,通过对相关理论及研究成果进行分析归纳,初步构建出适用于项目组合管理的能力指标体系;针对项目组合管理过程中不确定性,结合证据理论的优势将其运用到项目组合管理能力评价中,通过构建识别框架、确定可信度函数以及信息合成详述了评价的方法与步骤,最后以实例证明该能力体系与评价方法的有效性和实用性.     

一种基于证据表达的缺省推理继承网络算法

缺省推理的继承网络算法在解决常识性推理问题时遇到了新的困难,即不确定性,本文提出了证据表达,最大熵原理和证据继承的三种技术,实现了一种基于证据表达的缺省推理继承网络算法。     

计算机取证系统的研究

计算机技术的迅速发展改变了人们的生活方式、生产方式与管理方式。同时,也为违法犯罪分子提供了新的犯罪空间和手段。以计算机信息系统为犯罪对象和工具的各类新型犯罪活动越来越多,造成的危害也越来越大。如何获取与计算机犯罪相关的电子证据,将犯罪分子绳之以法。已成为司法和计算机科学领域中亟待解决的新课题。作为计算机领域和法学领域的一门交叉科学——计算机取证学成为人们研究与关注的焦点。     

人权保护视角下的无罪推定——由李怀亮案引发的思考

无罪推定以人权保护为起点,又以人性尊严为皈依。“无罪推定原则”在新《刑事诉讼法》（2012年3月修正）中表现为“不得强迫自证其罪规则”和“非法证据排除规则”,新《刑事诉讼法》将“人权保护”和“无罪推定”纳入其中,是我国立法的一大进步,但仍然存在一定的问题。要将“无罪推定原则”落到实处,必须明确“人权保护”是刑事诉讼法的首要目的,提高公民的法律意识,缓解公检法机关办案压力,真正实现司法公正。