炉温预报系统中参数滞后时间的相关性分析

采用非线性回归方法分析在炉温判断、预报及操作指导系统中参数的确定及影响炉温的滞后时间,结合实际讨论在炉温判断中各参数与炉温的相关性,并在采样周期方面进行了不同尝试,仿真结果与经验数据比较达到了较好地吻合。     

多维时序模糊关联规则在高炉炉温预报中的应用

根据目前高炉炉温预报推理规则都是由高炉专家根据经验制定的情况,提出了一种新的规则生成方法——数据挖掘获取高炉炉温预报关联规则.针对现有挖掘算法的不足,提出了一种改进的多维时间序列模糊关联规则挖掘算法,该算法基于时间子序列和子序列间隔的双重模糊化,避免了挖掘结果"时间边界锐化"的问题.该算法应用于武钢的1#高炉,挖掘效果良好.     

On the development of the GRAPES——A new generation of the national operational NWP system in China

Numerical weather prediction （NWP） has become one of the most important means for weather forecasts in the world. It also mirrors a nation＇s comprehensive strength in meteorology. In 2000, China Meteorological Administration （CMA） established the National Innovative Base for Meteorological Numerical Prediction in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences （CAMS）, to work on developing a new generation of the national operational NWP system-Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System （GRAPES）, to enhance meteorological services in China in the new century. In recent years, the GRAPES has witnessed a fast development. The GRAPES has been set up as an integration of the model framework, data assimilation, regional and global NWP system, which can be commonly used for both operation and research. In this paper, a brief review is made for illustrating the GRAPES system, including the advanced designs of the GRAPES, its diverse applications in multi-fields, and efficiencies of the regional and global GRAPES in operational applications based on hindcast results.     

Scientific design and preliminary results of three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES

The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System （GRAPES） recently developed in China Meteorological Administration （CMA） are presented in this paper. This is a three-dimensional variational （3DVar） assimilation system set up on global and regional grid meshes favorable for direct assimilation of the space-based remote sensing data and matching the frame work of the prediction model GRAPES. The state variables are assumed to decompose balanced and unbalanced components. By introducing a simple transformation from the state variables to the control variables with a recursive or spectral filter, the convergence rate of iteration for minimization of the cost function in 3DVar is greatly accelerated. The definition of dynamical balance depends on the characteristic scale of the circulation considered. The ratio of the balanced to the unbalanced parts is controlled by the prescribed statistics of background errors. Idealized trials produce the same results as the analytic solution. The results of real data case studies show the capability of the system to improve analysis compared to the traditional schemes, Finally, further development of the system is discussed.     

A new method for splice site prediction based on the sequence patterns of splicing signals and regulatory elements

It is of significance for splice site prediction to develop novel algorithms that combine the sequence patterns of regulatory elements such as enhancers and silencers with the patterns of splicing signals. In this paper, a statistical model of splicing signals was built based on the entropy density profile （EDP） method, weight array method （WAM） and K test; moreover, the model of splicing regulatory elements was developed by an unsupervised self-learning method to detect motifs associated with regulatory elements. With two models incorporated, a multi-level support vector machine （SVM） system was devised to perform ab initio prediction for splice sites originating from DNA sequence in eukaryotic genome. Results of large scale tests on human genomic splice sites show that the new method achieves a comparative high performance in splice site prediction. The method is demonstrated to be with at least the same level of performance and usually better performance than the existing SpliceScan method based on modeling regulatory elements, and shown to have higher accuracies than the traditional methods with modeling splicing signals such as the GeneSplicer. In particular, the method has evident advantage over splice site prediction for the genes with lower GC content.     

浅谈EMS高级应用软件在揭阳电网的应用

本文主要介绍了EMS高级应用软件的发展和EMS软件在揭阳电网的总体设计、软硬件配置和应用情况,指出了EMS高级应用软件的投入运行对揭阳电网的积极影响。     

遂宁机场2006年雷暴的特征及其预报

通过对2006年遂宁机场出现的雷暴天气对比《遂宁机场航空气候志》(1986-1995)进行了统计学分析,并对其具体的预报做出经验总结,结果表明:2006年遂宁机场出现的雷暴具有较普遍的气候特征,也有一些不同以往的特点,年雷暴日数为近年来较多的一年,雷暴强度较弱,干雷暴较多。     

巴州地区一次大风强降温天气分析

2006年4月9至12日,新疆出现了一次全疆性的大风强降温天气过程。巴州地区8县1市普遍出现了强风暴、强降温。巴州气象局提前72小时成功地报出了这次天气,收到了良好的社会效益。     

多要素遥感信息的V-3θ图绘制与分析

本文较详细地分析和叙述了V-3θ结构图的物理量计算和软件制作,并基于此方法对2007年12月南京地区的一次大雾天气进行了预测分析。     

中等长度双线隧道快速施工关键技术

通过施工实践中的技术体会,简要介绍了中长隧道快速施工关键技术,对类似工程的施工具有一定借鉴意义。