Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

含铝高速钢中奥氏体非均匀长大的机制

M2AI和M2高速钢经一次和二次淬火后,奥氏体晶粒和未溶碳化物的定量研究表明,在高温r/f比值相同的条件下,由于淬火前原始组织的差别,可发生正常(均匀)和异常(非均匀)两类长大。根据异常粗晶形成初期的组织观察,提出了“连续-非连续”再结晶模式和“合并—推移”式的生长机制。提出了减轻或消除M2AI钢混晶的工艺原则。     

关于运城地区发展经济林的反思

优越的农业自然条件使运城地区成为山西省重要的粮棉生产基地。但近年来经济林的迅速发展使果树栽植面积几乎占到耕地总面积的1／4。尽管平原地区广种经济林具有一定的经济效益与环境效益,但它却违背了合理利用土地的原则,若不及早采取有力措施加以控制,我国将会潜伏粮食危机,种植业的可持续发展将会受到严重影响。     

双剪强度理论在水工压力隧洞弹塑性应力分析中的应用

水工压力隧洞的弹塑性分析,工程上一直采用Ｍｏｈｒ－Ｃｏｕｌｏｍｂ强度准则进行求解。但由于该理论和试验结果常常不符,故产生误差。本文应用俞茂宏教授提出的双剪强度理论对水工压力隧洞进行弹塑性分析,解决了上述问题。     

硒水平对食管癌发病率影响的初步研究

对比研究显示食管癌高发区磁县土壤,粮食,水和正常人发硒的质量分数「分别为０．４２＊１０＾－９,０．０８＊１０＾－９,１．２４＊１０＾－９,１．１６＊１０＾－６」最高,中发区临漳县次之「分别为０．１７４＊１０＾－９,０．０４９＊１０＾－９,０．６８＊１０＾－９,０．９７＊１０＾－６」,低发区魏县最低「分别为０．１４８＊１０＾－９,０．０２６＊１０＾－９,０．２４＊１０＾－９,０．９１＊１０＾－６」,     

给水度与饱和差关系的初步研究

通过对给水度与饱和差的理论分析,明确了给水度与饱和差在基本概念上的差别;得出了饱和差通常是大于给水度而小于孔隙度,以及只有岩土体积含水率达到持水度时饱和差与给水度才相等的结论;给出了饱和差与给水度之间的定量关系式。这些结果得到了室内试验的验证。     

吴大源金缕梅种群生殖产量的相关分析

在金缕梅种群中设置调查样方,测定样方中金缕梅的树高等各营养生长指标及生殖分配指标,分析金缕梅的年龄分布为下降型种群,生殖产量与树高等营养指标之间的相关分析表明,生殖产量与冠幅的相关性显著,而与其它指标间的相关性不显著。     

陕西省人均粮食与人均耕地变化研究

对陕西省人均粮食及人均耕地变化进行了时空差异分析,结果表明:(1)近50余年的绝大多数年份为人均粮食占有量的递增期,且不同时段的增幅不同;粮食增长率大于人口增长率的时期,对应人均粮食的增长时期;(2)1978—1998年绝大多数地、市人均粮食递增,且地域差异明显;(3)近50多年来全省耕地面积总体逐年递减,近10年来减少之势加剧;同期人口数量的持续增长,造成人均耕地面积急剧减少.相关回归分析显示:各地、市人均粮食绝对增量与其相对增量之间呈正相关,人均粮食增加量占粮食增量的份额整体偏低;提高粮食生产水平及控制人口是增加全省人均粮食占有量的重要途径.     

增液剂精确评价方法的研究

利用相对反应历程及相对液收概念，结合评价不确定区间，提出了增液剂的精确评价方法．利用特制的实验设备，在给定反应温度下，对来自同一装置的减压渣油及焦化进料液收进行了精确评价．     

Contributions of different land cover types in Otindag Sandy Land and Bashang area of Hebei Province to the material source of sand stormy weather in Beijing

Different land cover types in Otindag Sandy Land and Bashang area of Hebei Province are linked to a material source of sand stormy weather in Beijing based on results of field vegetation and soil survey and laboratory works. Results of grain size analysis show that dust release potential in per unit area of moving sandy land is small,while lowland meadow and meadow steppe in stony hills have high potential of releasing dusts in per unit area during sand stormy weather occurrence. Further considering the effects of vegetation, it is inferred that the moving sandy land served as a material source of past dust storm and the possibility of dust release in per unit area is low in current time.Typical steppe in stony hills is undergoing desertification and its dust release possibility in per unit area is high. Farmland has strong potential of release dusts when they are ploughed in spring, but a large amount of therophytes grow and thus prevent dusts from release when cultivation was terminated.Potentials of dust release in per unit area in fixed sand dunes,stony mountain meadow steppe and low land meadow are lowdue to high cover of perennials. Sand dune reactivation and desiccation of lakes and lowlands under estimated future climatic change will make them serve as a future material source of sand stormy weather.