含趋势项时间序列持久性变点监测

针对核加权方差比率统计量不是监测从非平稳向平稳变化持久性变点一致方法的问题,通过引进一个窗宽参数,提出了一种滑动核加权方差比率统计量来监测含趋势项时间序列从非平稳向平稳变化的持久性.在非平稳原假设下给出了监测统计量的极限分布和经验临界值表,在备择假设下证明了新方法的一致性.模拟结果表明新方法具有比原方法更高的势和更短的平均运行长度,最后通过分析人民币与美元汇率数据进一步说明了该方法的有效性.     

基于系统动力学的企业转型的技术变迁路径分析仿真模型

技术变迁是企业转型的重要途径之一,本文分析了信息化环境下企业转型中技术变迁过程,采用系统动力学方法,构建了技术变迁路径的因果图和系统流图;通过案例仿真实验,获取了影响技术变迁的关键因素,即RD投入和企业信息系统上线率.动态模拟结果表明,这两个因素能够有效提高企业转型的经济转化能力,但其投入量必须控制在合理范围之内.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

基于CBERS CCD数据的鹿洼煤矿塌陷区LUCC检测

本文基于多时相中巴地球资源卫星CBERS CCD数据,以鹿洼煤矿塌陷区为例,利用混合像元分解技术开展土地利用/覆盖变化LUCC检测.分别选取研究区域的2002年、2006年和2010年3个时相的CBERSCCD图像作为遥感数据源,将粒子群优化算法引入到端元提取中,基于线性光谱混合模型提取鹿洼煤矿塌陷区水体、建筑用地、农田和土壤4类地物信息,并对结果进行统计分析.LUCC检测结果表明,2002年至2010年间,鹿洼煤矿塌陷地面积逐年增加,造成大面积农田积水,导致无法进行作物耕种.最后,结合当地政府采取的塌陷地治理措施分析了土地利用变化情况.     

含砾岩样中切削齿冲击载荷变化规律试验

通过直径为19 mm的单齿切削含砾岩样试验,研究砾石直径、胶结强度、切削深度、切削齿后倾角等对切削齿所受冲击载荷的影响规律,分析PDC钻头钻进砾石层的损坏机制。结果表明:切削齿受到的冲击力随着砾石层胶结强度、砾石直径的增加而增大,随切削齿切削深度的增加呈指数增加;相同切削面积下,切削齿受到的冲击力随着后倾角的增大而增大;当冲击载荷大于切削齿的极限冲击强度时,切削齿将直接产生碎裂;即使冲击载荷不能达到切削齿的极限冲击强度,周而复始的冲击载荷达到切削齿的冲击韧性时,切削齿将发生冲击疲劳损坏。     

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years①

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R~2= 0.47,P 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R~2= 0.54,P 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R~2= 0.78,P 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R~2= 0.28,P 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R~2= 0.24,P 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.     

汉语词汇隐喻的英译策略

隐喻作为一种思维方式,体现人类的认知和文化。汉语词汇丰富的隐喻在英译时需要灵活处理,可以根据不同语境、文化内涵和隐喻的凸显程度,对其进行直译、意译、转换目标域或直译加释义。     

大学新生的心理断乳与角色置换

大学新生在从高中生向准大学生过渡过程中,具有特殊时期的群体规定性,思想、学习、生活和心理上常常出现一些问题,应从理论和现实的双重视角,采取一系列措施帮助新生正确面对问题、解决问题,帮助他们顺利完成角色置换,为大学生的健康成长奠定良好的基础,为以后学生工作的顺利开展创造良好的条件.     

民国时期青海湟源县商品贸易变化及原因分析

湟源县旧称丹噶尔,在清代是茶马互市及民族贸易的重要市场。它的地理位置特殊,处于农牧交错带,为多民族聚居区。民国时期丹噶尔的商贸情况：清末民初有比较良好的基础、以及由于马仲英事变和二重税的实行所导致的两次重大商贸转折。     

ADC14铝合金变速轮组合肋条早期断裂失效分析

采用化学成分分析、扫描电镜断口观察、金相检验等方法对某公司ADC14铝合金变速轮组合肋条的早期断裂原因进行了分析。结果表明，大量不均匀分布的粗大块状初晶硅、沿晶分布的块状脆性相、针状的脆性铁相以及较多的疏松铸造缺陷，严重割裂基体，使肋条的塑性降低、脆性增大，导致肋条产生早期脆性断裂。在此分析的基础上提出了铸造工艺的改进措施。