F#-Time, Functions and Processes: Towards Sustainable Investment Risk Benchmarks

‘I made a mistake’: Alan Greenspan (Financial Times: Alan Beattie and James Politi: Washington, 23rd October 2008). Such are the words of great men, for even in troubled times their self-effacing manner provides useful guidance. Whilst Mr Greenspan may feel this way, he is a product of his environment, one that has seen the cumulative development of financial instruments and strategies that have not been thought through as to their impact on a complex economy. Mainly this is because risk is thought to be discrete and the methods used to price it are flawed. To an engineer the control of a machine is built-in. Although the economy is not a machine, but an intensely connected complex of ever emerging businesses, the process of control needs to be structured in a similar manner. Pricing investment risk in this environment should never have been left to opaque institutions, or processes that do not recognise the co-dependencies of business and systemic functionality. To do so is to ignore the correlation of events in a highly connected world. These events are dynamic and conditional, whose outturns are unknowable. This does not mean unmanageable, but that the control process be built-in to businesses and government in a consistent manner, transparent yet using different parameters. Transparent means that data, assumptions and processes need to be monitored and published in timely manner. As far as accounting for results is concerned it should be recognised that budgeting and reporting to investors is founded on dynamic processes that are therefore changeable; usually out of date; and co-dependent upon others within a complex dynamic network that is both internal and external to the business. The works of Stafford Beer (Brain of the Firm, Heart of the Enterprise, Diagnosing the System) Fredrick Vestor (The Art of Interconnected Thinking) and others are examples of how to manage the internal dynamics of a business and point to a methodology that synthesises the approaches of investors such as Warren Buffett so that extreme outcomes such as the Credit-Crunch 2008 can be reduced in frequency but investors are free to ‘take their risks’. This research aims to compare two extreme events in the financial arena, the ‘Reinsurance Spiral of the late 1980s’ and the ‘2008 Credit-Crunch’, show their commonalities and propose methods that supply liquidity in all but gross systemic failure and allow investment risk to be more ably assessed and priced. It is not meant to be an exhaustive analysis but one focused on how ignoring the proper relationship of time, functions and processes brought about the current problem in both insurance and the capital markets and how a solution may be found. This research note offers an overview on the ongoing PhD research on the topic.

露天煤矿基本建设过程中投资控制的探讨

通过对项目建设过程中常常发生的结算超预算、预算超概算产生的原因分析及造成的危害,从可行性研究阶段、初步设计阶段、勘察设计阶段、招投标阶段及施工阶段等过程中提出了控制投资的方法与措施。     

基于综合能源优化配置的增量配电网工程投资效益测算方法

在增量配电改革进一步放开的环境下,增量配电网工程的投资方向不仅是供电服务的基本建设投资,而且是终端服务模式的创新,为用户提供全面的综合能源增值服务。为实现综合能源与增量配电网协同优化规划,本文结合增量配电网发展新特点,基于全寿命周期法研究并建立了基于综合能源优化配置的增量配电网工程成本与收益测算数学模型,对具体增量配电网工程进行投资效益测算,并选取综合能源增值服务等关键因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明：合理优化配置多种能源,实现综合能源与增量配电协同规划,能够降低增量配电网运行投资成本。可见所建立投资效益模型可用于指导增量配电网工程投资,有利于多能源协同规划,促进综合能源增值服务的发展。     

泉州与香港产业经济合作的思考

对泉州与香港两地产业经济合作的情况及其原因做了剖析，分析了入世后给两地产业经济的合作带来的新机遇，并就两地合作的对策做了粗浅的探讨。     

金融发展、外商直接投资与城乡收入差距——基于我国省级面板数据的门槛模型分析

采用Hansen提出的门槛回归方法,以我国29个省级单位1993~2009年的面板数据构建面板门槛模型,以金融发展水平为门槛变量,实证外商直接投资(FDI)对城乡收入差距的影响。研究发现,FDI对城乡收入差距的影响显著地存在基于金融发展的双门槛效应,东部沿海省份金融发展水平高,吸收FD I数量大,城乡收入差距相对较小,西部省份则正好相反,而中部介于东部和西部之间。同时发现,在控制教育发展水平、城乡就业结构和政府财政支出政策的情况下,金融发展水平的提高在一定程度上会扩大城乡收入差距。最后就缩小城乡收入差距提出简要的对策建议。     

管理者—投资者意见分歧与我国上市公司投资行为

引入管理者—投资者意见分歧理论,考察管理者与外部投资者对同一信息做出不同解读造成的双方估值差异如何影响上市公司投资行为。基于公司实际业绩与分析师预测业绩之差构造两个意见分歧替代变量,利用我国A股上市公司2004～2008年的面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示:管理者—投资者意见分歧与上市公司实际投资负相关;且意见分歧程度越高,公司过度投资越少,投资不足不受影响。这表明我国上市公司外部投资者反对意见对公司管理者形成一定约束,双方意见分歧有助于提升公司价值。     

投资连结产品的再保险策略

对趸缴保费和分期缴纳保费两种情况，在投资基金服从对数正态分布的假定下，研究投资连结产品在经营期内每年的最优比例再保险和超额损失再保险策略，所得结论对保险人做此决策具有直接的指导作用。     

住宅开发项目财务评价体系研究

住宅开发项目投资区别于一般建设项目投资的众多特征，在进行住宅开发投资项目财务评价时，不能照搬一般建设项目的评价方法与评价指标。针对我国住宅项目投资经营活动的实际情况，在深入剖析住宅项目与一般工业建设项目的区别的基础上，建立一套完整的并具有可操作性的以销售为主的住宅开发项目财务评价体系。     

液态空气储能与液态CO2储能技术对比

为了解决压缩空气储能储气室容积大、成本高的问题,液态空气储能和液态CO₂储能得到了国内外广泛关注及研究。针对这两大储能系统,借助ASPEN PLUS软件搭建了热力学物理模型,并借助?分析对两大储能系统进行热力学和关键参数敏感性研究分析。研究表明：液态空气储能系统?损失主要发生在压缩机及蓄热蓄冷装置上,分别占比45.02%、37.61%。液态CO₂储能系统?损失主要发生在低温膨胀机、压缩机及蓄冷蓄热装置上,分别占比26.99%、23.88%、30.41%。从电-电转化效率方面：在绝热条件下,两大储能系统由于在充放电过程能量消耗大,电-电转化效率都低于55%,相比液态空气储能,液态CO₂储能效率高。从系统成熟度方面：液态空气储能已得到工程应用,而液态CO₂储能还处于研究阶段,未得到工程化应用。从投资成本方面;液态CO₂储能单位千瓦投资成本高于液态空气储能约40%。     

论投资体制改革

本文分析了我国现行投资体制中所存在的问题,为加速体制改革,控制投资膨胀,提出了若干建议。