基于HHT方法的洪家渡水电站年平均流量多尺度演变分析

应用基于经验模态分解(EMD)的Hilbert-Huang变换(HHT)方法对洪家渡水电站1951~2005年的天然年平均流量系列进行了分析研究,并对未来洪家渡水电站年平均流量变化进行了预测.结果表明:洪家渡站年平均流量存在准3 a、准9a、准11a及准30a的波动周期;各时间尺度振荡的方差贡献以3a和9a的为最大;未来5年,洪家渡水电站年平均流量减少的趋势将逐渐扭转,年平均流量将逐年增加.     

甘肃河西地区近50年气象和水文库列变化趋势

应用累积滤波器和秩次相关法，对甘肃河西地区近50年气象和水文序列的变化趋势进行了分析，结果表明，该区年降水量，年平均气温和年平均流量变化趋势存在明显的地域分布，并受海拔高程的影响，这可能是不同的下垫面对全球变暖的不同响应，该区气候总体趋于暖温，这同GCMs模拟成本基本一致。     

基于遥感和GIS的日最高最低气温估算

气温是气象要素的重要组成部分,广泛用于全球气候变化、资源环境分析及灾害预警等多个领域.随着卫星遥感技术的发展,气温的估算趋向于遥感或遥感和GIS结合的方法.本文以浙江省为研究区域,利用了36个站点2013年逐日每10min一次的自动气象站气温观测数据和MODIS地表温度及其他参数产品,选用多元线性回归(自变量为地表温度、归一化植被指数、地表反照率、经度、纬度和高程)、温度植被指数以及多元线性回归插值方法进行气温估算,建立了研究区日最高气温最低气温估算模型,并比较了几种气温估算方法在研究区的适用性.结果表明:3种方法最高气温估算的决定系数(R~2)分别为0.96、0.91、0.97,均方根误差(R_(MSE))分别为1.84、2.75、1.49℃;多元线性回归和多元线性回归插值法最低气温估算的R~2分别为0.87、0.91,R_(MSE)分别为3.33、2.93℃,两者均为多元线性回归插值法得到的结果最好.空间分布结果显示,多元线性回归插值法能很好地反映由地形不同所带来的细节差异.     

北京地区大气污染物源区特征及与重污染过程的关系

探讨影响北京市区的大气污染潜在源区(印痕)。采用WRF气象模式, 对北京地区的气象场进行15年(2000-2014年)长期模拟分析。利用印痕模式, 计算15年的逐时印痕分布, 统计分析污染物源区的多年平均特性和季节变化。根据空气污染指数API, 筛选13年(2000-2012年)秋冬季的实际重污染事例, 统计分析其与污染物源区的关系。结果表明: 1) 逐日平均印痕的形态和分布变化极大, 说明影响北京的污染物源区是随时间而动态变化的; 2) 多年平均的污染物源区大致呈三角形分布, 偏西南的一角最强, 另外一角偏东, 一角大致偏北, 北京处于三角形中心以北的位置; 3) 源区多年的平均形态和分布随季节变化, 夏秋季(7月和10月)偏南和西南方向的源区范围扩大; 4) 根据局地风向频率来判断污染物来源方向是不可靠的, 印痕模式包含污染物累积等过程和机制, 可以获得合理的污染物源区; 5) 实际重污染过程与其平均印痕的关系显示, 西南方向从石家庄到北京, 再往东到唐山这一宽阔山前弧形地带是影响北京大气的最重要污染物源区。     

Climatic significance of n-alkanes and their compound-specific δD values from lake surface sediments on the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

The content and hydrogen isotope ratios of n-alkanes extracted from recent lake surface sediments sampled from nine lakes in three different climate zones on the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. Values were compared with n-alkanes in plants from lake drain- ages, and δD values of meteoric water, lake water, and mean annual precipitation. The results showed that n-C23 was predominantly derived from aquatic plants, and n-C27- n-C33 from terrestrial higher plants. The average carbon chain length of n-C27-n-C33 （ACL27-33） was positively correlated with the mean annual precipitation. δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes n-C29 and n-C31 of terrestrial origin （varying between -214‰ and -169 ‰, and-226 ‰ and -185 ‰, respectively） were inversely correlated with mean annual precipitation; but in accordance with the average annual variations in δD （OIPC）, δD values of n-C31 were strongly related to the δD values of growing season meteoric water （R2 = 0.74）. The large difference between δD values of n-C23 of aquatic origin and n-C31 （an average of about 27 ‰） demonstrates the enrichment of the lake water δD compared to precipitation, caused by strong evaporation in the semiarid-arid areas of the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Average value of εn-c25- 31/p （-95 ‰） is evidently higher than the value observed in European wet regions （-128 ‰）; besides, εn-C31 （about -116 ‰） is constant along the study transect （SD = 9）, which indicates that n-C31 is a useful proxy for the environment.     

How does contemporary climate versus climate change velocity affect endemic plant species richness in China？

Climate change is considered a top threat to biodiversity, but the relative roles of contemporary climate versus the rate of climate change in determining spatial patterns of biodiversity are far from clear. China has a very diverse flora and harbors a high percentage of endemic species, but the mechanisms underlying spatial patterns of plant endemism are poorly understood. This study explores the geographical patterns of a representative sample of 555 endemic seed plant species at the scale of 0.5° latitude × 0.5°longitude. Ordinary least squares and spatial autoregressive models were compared to assess the relationship between richness of endemics and the rate of climate change in the past century, as well as a group of contemporary climate variables. In China, a high level of endemism was associated with high elevation and low rate of climate change. However, contemporary climate had a stronger impact than climate change velocity in the past century on endemic species richness patterns. Specifically,mean annual precipitation and annual range of temperature were important contemporary climatic factors. The rate of change of annual mean temperature, but not that of annual precipitation, also significantly contributed to the spatial pattern of plant endemic species richness. We found no significant relationship between topographic variation and endemic species richness, while temperature variability at multiple time scales was strongly correlated with the species richness pattern. Future work should consider the direction of climate change and incorporate higher-resolution data.     

岷县高寒阴湿地区人工模拟飞播造林试验

1、试验内容及调查方法 飞播试验区位于岷县西北部湾山、背后山青年林,海拨高度为2400—2700m,坡度在0～23°之间,年平均气温3．6℃。年降水量552mm．属高寒阴湿气候区。土壤多为黄绵土,植被保存较好的地段为褐色森林土,土层厚度在100cm以上,pH值7．2～7．6,飞播作业区除少量在荒山弃耕地内．     

渭北旱塬沟壑区整地与林木生长的关系

<正>彬县位属渭北旱塬沟壑区,地处黄土高原边缘地带,位于东经107°49′-108°22′,北纬34°51′-35°17′。海拨高度715-1501米。总面积1183.2平方公里。其中残塬沟壑区面积968.6平方米,占全县总面积的81.8%,境内塬梁起伏,沟壑纵横。年平均气温9.7℃,平均湿度54%,平均降水量579.6毫米,且主要集中在7-9月份,占全年降水量的71%,而蒸发量为1288毫米,是降水量的2倍。土壤以黄蟮土和黑垆土为主。     

天童记忆

天童森林公园,是我国最早建立的森林公园之一,位于浙江宁波太白山麓,面积700多公顷,主峰海拔高度650多米,1997年被确定为国家森林公园.公园地处亚热带季风气候带,热量充足,雨量充沛,年平均气温16℃,年平均降水量1370毫米,优越的气候条件和妥善的保护孕育了丰富多样的生物物种,是一座不可多得的动植物基因宝库.