A STAGE-STRUCTURED SI ECO-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL WITH TIME DELAY AND IMPULSIVE CONTROLLING*

This paper formulates a robust stage-structured SI eco-epidemiological model with periodic constant pulse releasing of infectious pests with pathogens. The authors show that the conditions for global attractivity of the ＇pest-eradication＇ periodic solution and permanence of the system depend on time delay, hence, the authors call it ＂profitless＂. Further, the authors present a pest management strategy in which the pest population is kept under the economic threshold level （ETL） when the pest population is uniformly persistent. By numerical analysis, the authors also show that constant maturation time delay for the susceptible pests and pulse releasing of the infectious pests can bring obvious effects on the dynamics of system.     

用于异质用户出行管理的可交易许可证研究

针对公共交通与私家车出行方式并行的双模式交通系统,在考虑不同用户的时间价值情况下,通过引进可交易的道路许可证政策,建立了均衡出行交通模型.研究发现,许可证政策将拥挤产生的交通成本内部化,在缓解交通拥堵的同时,通过经济手段,降低了系统总成本.进一步地,本文证明如果汽车比公交快,那么时间价值较高的人会选择私家车出行;反之,如果公交比汽车快,时间价值相对较高的有车族会选择公交出行.通过与OD收费进行比较,我们得到在收费为正的情况下,许可证政策可以得到与基于OD收费相同的效果.最后,算例结果表明,许可证政策使得部分人选择公交出行的成本更低,达到鼓励公交出行的目的;甚至在许可证发放数量少于临界数量的情况下,选择公交出行的人会获得正收益.     

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

收益共享协调机制下两阶段供应链提前期压缩的博弈分析

提前期压缩可以使供应链柔性增大、库存成本减少和供应链收益增加.提前期压缩所增加收益的合理分配对供应链成员间的合作伙伴关系的维护和加强起着关键性作用.建立了基于收益共享协调机制下的Stackelberg博弈模型,在制造商投资柔性设备压缩订货提前期给零售商带来的额外效益在供应链上下游间分享的情形下,分析了提前期压缩和零售商库存管理的决策问题.研究发现:在收益共享协调方式下,零售商先行动公布收益分享比例激励制造商进行合理的订货提前期压缩,供应链整体及上下游的收益均要高于订货提前期压缩前;提前期压缩比例和收益共享比例与零售商的终端需求、订货批量等库存管理参数等有着紧密联系.     

宁夏银北灌区水资源优化配置模型及应用

以宁夏银北灌区为例,基于大系统分解协调原理建立了地表水地下水联合运用的递阶优化模型.子系统优化模型采用增量动态规划法求解,协调层利用目标协调法和关联预估法实现全局最优,获得不同约束方案下的时段最优引黄水量、井灌水量、井排水量和运行费用.所建模型及求解方法弥补了以往水资源配置模型只考虑地下水垂向运动,忽略水平运动的不足, 改善了模型的仿真性和决策的可靠性.     

自组织团队创新的机理及管理研究

本论文的目的在于探讨企业创新管理中的团队自组织创新机理及其“有控自组”的管理模式。论文提出了智能型复杂自适应系统理论（ICAS）是自组织团队创新的理论基础;使用ICAS理论分析和解释了自组织团队创新的机理;提出了自组织团队创新管理的“有控自组”模式及其实施策略;文章总结了自组织团队创新的机理及其“有控自组”管理模式的实施要点。     

战略导向预算管理的系统观

作为实施企业经营战略的有效工具,战略导向的预算管理具有重要意义,是在环境分析的基础上,联结战略与业务流程的重要工具。根据一般系统论的基本原理,探讨了企业竞争战略与预算管理之间的静态匹配和动态调适关系,战略导向的预算管理是一个包括预算编制、预算监控、预算考评与预算改进的整体集成的闭环系统,并具有战略陈述、战略执行、战略检查和战略学习的系统功能。     

A Systemic Evaluation of the State of Affairs Following the Negative Outcome of the Referendum in Cyprus Using the Structured Dialogic Design Process

This paper reports the results of the first of a series of co-laboratories organized by Cypriot peace pioneers 30 months after the negative outcome of the referendum concerning UN General Secretary’s plan for reunification of the island. The purpose of this co-laboratory was to support a diverse group of disengaged and disappointed peace pioneers and activists representing Turkish and Greek communities of Cyprus develop a shared understanding of factors contributing to the perceived widening of the gap between the two divided communities in Cyprus. The co-laboratory was organized using the structured dialogic design process (SDDP) approach within the context of a rich web-based communication environment. The root causes contributing to the widening of the gap are discussed and are also compared with those identified during a similar co-laboratory employing the Interactive Management methodology 12 years earlier.

Action Research for Sustainable Water Futures in Western Sydney: Reaching Beyond Traditional Stakeholder Engagement to Understand Community Stakeholder Language and Its Implications for Action

Action on issues of ecological significance often requires changes in personal behaviour and political consensus on technologies to support these changes. Unfortunately, many consultation processes only engage a narrow range of stakeholders, usually those professionally engaged or already active on a range of community issues. This paper illustrates how people who are ‘hard to reach’ or seen as ‘apathetic’ might be engaged using ‘action-conversations’ that explore the social climate for action and how scientific/technical messages can be framed in the language of the community.     

基于关键链和混合优化算法的舰船多项目并行建造进度管理方法

针对舰船多资源约束、多项目并行建造条件下进度优化与管理能力的不足,提出了一套进度管理方法。首先,基于关键链理论给出了多资源约束下舰船多项目并行建造进度管理步骤。其次,构建了舰船多项目并行建造进度优化模型,可实现在优化并行项目总工期的过程中通过合理分配各种资源获取最佳项目实施组合。最后,设计了适合于舰船建造等大型复杂工程项目求解的混合优化算法,并通过算例验证了方法的实用性。