Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地下含水层热储井位置选择和布置

地下含水层热储开发技术面临一系列问题,寻找适合热储用的含水层和合理布置热储井是解决问题的第一步.综合考虑含水层的地质结构特征,适合热储的含水层应该是承压含水层,热储应该采用同层方式.单个热储井的影响半径可以通过热平衡和热扩散原理求得.合理布置热储井间的相对位置,可以有效抵消原有地下水的流动以及渗流系数不一致的影响.利用井之间的渗流耦合作用,在热储井之间布置调节井,主动控制热储水的波及范围,可以实现热储井布置的相对"紧凑".     

织造过程中经纱张力计算机控制系统的研究

为了提高织机生产效率和扩大织造品种范围，提出了织造过程中经纱张力控制的目标和相适应的控制方案，研制了经纱张力计算机控制系统，达到了预期的性能指标。     

保险在西部民族地区小康建设中的方位和空间

从分析西部民族地区保险业与全国保险业发展水平的差距及背景入手，指出西部民族地区保险业所处的现实方位及在财产保险、农业保险和人寿保险等方面进一步拓展的广阔空间，发挥保险业在风险保障、资金融通和社会管理方面的作用。     

广义判断下AHP(GJAHP)的一致性检验与可接受性的进一步探讨

广义判断下的AHP(GJAHP)是在单准则下通过构造广义判断矩阵的数学模型而建立的一种广义AHP.本文提出了广义判断矩阵一致性的一种非参数统计检验方法--spearman秩相关系数法, 给出了广义辅助矩阵的构造性定义, 并进一步探讨了广义判断矩阵的可接受性。最后本文给出了GJAHP的应用实例。     

中国数学史断代研究的一项新成果：—《明清数学史论文集》简介

本文简介梅荣照主编的《明清数学史论文集》一书，对中国数学史开展断代专题研究，是我国数学史界继承并发展李俨、钱宝琮、严郭杰先生研究成果的宏大计划，持续近三十年，历来为国际科学史界所重视，文集收入论文15篇、附录2篇，其中严敦杰先生遗作7篇，本文对15篇论文逐一作了简介。     

整体优化 提高高校学报质量

本文从学报形成的全过程入手,分析了影响学报质量的诸因素,提出了人与科学技术相结合;编者与作者相结合;编者与读者需要相结合;办刊与高校教育相结合来提高学报质量的观点,使学报在信息传播的全过程中实现整体优化。     

高等学校实验室及实验教学改革模式探讨

本文分析了目前高校实验室建设中存在的主要问题,对高校实验教学和实验室管理模式的改革方式进行了探讨.     

对现行工程招标投标制度的思考

从经济学角度分析了现行招标投标制度,对我国工程招标投标制度中的一些问题进行了反思,并提出了相关的建议和措施。     

三峡工程水电站压力管道和蜗壳技术结构型式的选择及论证

The developing process of simulation technology is discussed in view of its development, maturation and further development.The applications of simulation technology in the fields of national economy are introduced. Finally, the level and status quo of simulation technology home and overseas are analyzed, and its future trend in the new century is presented.