通货膨胀与股票收益:需求冲击与供给冲击效应分解

将影响宏观经济波动的冲击分解为两类:供给冲击和需求冲击,并考察它们对通货膨胀和股票收益关系的影响.一个简化的理论模型表明,供给冲击导致通货膨胀与股票收益负相关,而需求冲击则导致通货膨胀与股票收益正相关;供给冲击下通货膨胀和价格水平都是逆经济周期的,而需求冲击下通货膨胀和价格水平则是顺经济周期的.以上结果也得到中国经验数据的支持.中国的经验还表明,短期股票收益动态更大程度上由供给冲击决定,而短期通货膨胀动态则主要由需求冲击决定.在总体或长期上,实际股票收益和通货膨胀呈现负相关关系,归因于两类冲击中供给冲击的效应占相对主导地位.     

Runge-Kutta方法求解结构动力学方程

将几种具有不同稳定性的Runge-Kutta方法应用到结构动力学方程的数值求解中。针对增量形式的动力学方程,使用改进的Newton-Raphson迭代,研究了减少计算量的两种方法：（1）使用单对角隐式Runge-Kutta方法,（2）应用转化矩阵。采用逼近算子的谱半径分析了稳定性与数值阻尼特性,解释了L-稳定方法抑制高频振荡的原因。数值算例表明在精确解上较小的物理阻尼能有效的抑制高频振荡,但对各种直接积分方法的影响很小,高精度的L-稳定Runge-Kutta方法能在有效抑制高频振荡的同时高精度的求解低频振动。

Abstract：

Several Runge-Kutta methods with the different stability were applied to solve the equations of motion in structural dynamics. For incremental dynamical equations,using the modified Newton-Raphson iteration,two methods to reduce the amount of work were proposed. The first one is the singly diagonally implicit Runge-Kutta methods,and the second one is to apply the transform matrix. Using the spectral radii of approximation operators,the stability analysis and the numerical damping property were studied,and the reason why the L-stability methods could wipe out the high oscillations was explained. Numerical example was solved by several direct integration methods,the result show that the small physical damping can wipe out high oscillations effectively on exact solution,but it has little effect on numerical solution,and the high order L-stability Runge-Kutta methods can wipe out the high oscillation effectively,at the same time,solve the vibration of low frequencies with high accuracy.     

基于主模型CAD/CAE集成的卷绕锭轴结构参数优化

高速卷绕头是化纤长丝纺丝机的重要单元机,国内之前研究相对较少。采用虚拟产品开发技术进行高速卷绕头新产品开发的技术创新,提高卷绕头产品开发效率。与同类研究类似,在高速卷绕头产品的虚拟开发过程中,集成CAD/CAE系统存在若干技术瓶颈。基于CAD/CAE系统集成方法的对比分析,建立了主模型CAD/CAE集成框架,并在该框架下进行了高速卷绕头锭轴结构参数优化设计,其优化设计的动力性能分析结果验证了基于主模型CAD/CAE集成框架进行高速卷绕锭轴部件虚拟开发的有效性。

Abstract：

Researches based on the high speed winder, which is a key unit machine for filaments treatment, are relatively rare in China. The techniques of virtual product development （VPD） were applied to improve the new product development of the high speed winder, which would raise the product development efficiency of the high speed winder. Similarly to the research of this kind, in the procedure of developing the virtual product for the high speed winder, there were several key technical problems in the CAD/CAE integrated system. The contrast analysis of the CAD/CAE integrated methods was given; furthermore, the CAD/CAE integrated framework based on master model was built, in which the structural parameters of the high-speed winder chuck was optimized for design. The dynamic characteristics analysis for the optimization design was done; consequently, the result indicates that in the CAD/CAE integrated framework based on master model, the structural parameter optimization of high-speed winder chuck is available.     

最大速度恒定的连续Petri网(CCPN)的性质及判定方法

最大速度恒定的连续Ｐｅｔｒｉ网是由Ｄａｖｉｄ等最早提出的一类时延连续Ｐｅｔｒｉ网模型,但并未对其性质给出确切的定义及相应的判定方法。文「１」中给出了ＣＣＰＮ的演变图及其构造算法,本文在给出ＣＣＰＮ以对扬系统进行性能分析。     

SERVICE VALUE NETWORKS： INTO PRACTICE

Modeling a business to match its customer perceived （and customer desired） outcomes, remains an on-going task. This paper considers shows how a service value networks （SVNs） approach may be engaged to model, and deliver, understanding of the front-end business and its direct engagement with its immediate （or front-end） customers. These front-end customers may be either： （1） its off-line, in-store customers - engaging directly with the business sales staff （or representative）, or-（2） its on-line, virtual customers - engaging with the business via internet or remote access. In this situation, both the business, and the customer draw upon their respective viewpoints, and both sides influence the interaction. External to these business and customer influences are additional factors that capture the immediate and broader global effects - termed environmental effects. These three business-customer engagement areas of influence are captured by a SVN SEM approach.
Without a business-customer encounter of some kind the likelihood of a services business, and a prospecting customer, successfully engaging in an exchange process is reduced. This exchange may be a physical, and/or services exchange, and/or an information and/or ideas exchange. To the business, this encounter is, in effect, a trade, and as a result, the business targets acquiring an economic exchange that will ultimately deliver a net positive economic outcome. To the customer, external and internal information feeds, servicing, perceived value, and satisfaction, are key encounter drivers. SVNs offers a new way to understand the business-customer encounter, and to then utilize this acquired knowledge to either： （1） build a strategic management model, or （2） reengineer its business networks, and to then create a re-positioned, more customer-aligned business operation - one that is capable of delivering win - win, competitive business-customer solutions.     

结构方程模型迭代算法研究

对结构方程模型——偏最小二乘法分析的模型结构、迭代原理进行了具体研究.首先,详细介绍了结构方程模型的结构关系组成,并针对2个结构2个潜变量的结构方程模型进行了推导,研究了相应迭代算法并开发了实现程序.最后,通过算例验证了迭代算法的有效性.     

Petri网模型参数化可达图研究

Petri网是一种对并发系统进行描述和建模的重要数学工具,可达图是Petri网模型的主要分析方法。为了解决由于系统参数化造成的Petri模型可达图难以构造并且无法进行模型性质检验的问题,在分析现有参数化可达图方法的基础上,利用参数化标识提出一种新的Petri网模型完全参数化可达图构造方法。同时给出了这种可达图的有关特性及其证明,并举例说明了如何利用这种参数化可达图对系统进行模型性质检测。     

中国煤矿重大事故中故意违章行为影响因素结构方程模型研究

研究了中国煤矿重大事故中的煤矿工人故意违章行为的影响因素,以煤矿工人个体层面和煤矿组织层面的各类因素作为外源变量,行为效价和行为成本感知为中介变量,以煤矿工人高成本-高效价和高成本-低效价两类特征性故意违章行为作为内生变量,构建故意违章行为影响因素的结构方程模型,研究发现煤矿工人的传记特征对两类特征性故意违章行为具有直接的正向影响;煤矿生产条件对两类特征性故意违章行为没有显著影响;煤矿生产任务性质通过感知效价间接正向影响两类特征性故意违章行为;煤矿组织特征和关系特征变量均对两类特征性故意违章行为具有间接的负向影响.     

XML模式的结构规范化研究

关于可扩展标识语言XML的模式规范化研究主要是针对其语义方面,但在实际应用中存在另一类问题:结构规范化。在分析了XML模式设计中结构上存在的两类问题后,提出了XML模式规范化在结构层面上的结构有效性和结构良好性规范。模式的结构有效性确保了XML模式能够被实例化,模式的结构良好性确保了模式定义中的所有元素定义是有意义的,即元素定义都能被实例化。最后,利用元素关系图探讨了结构有效性和结构良好性的判定定理和方法。XML模式的结构规范化是对现有XML模式规范化问题一个有益的补充。     

热-力-电耦合下天线罩电性能仿真及分析

在实际飞行工况下,热力载荷会改变高速飞行器天线罩原有的电磁特性,从而影响制导性能。提出了一种基于六面体网格划分的热-力-电耦合模型及仿真方法,可准确表征高速飞行工况下天线罩介电温漂和结构变形对电性能的影响。基于天线罩热-力-电共享网格模型,首先通过瞬态热仿真得到天线罩响应温度场,通过静力分析得到天线罩结构变形场。然后,将天线罩介电温漂和结构变形准确传递到其电磁仿真模型中,并采用三维射线跟踪法计算其电性能。最后通过一个典型算例对高速飞行工况下天线罩电性能的变化进行仿真和分析,结果表明电性能变化非常明显,也进一步说明了所提方法的可行性和研究的必要性。