一个可靠指标计算公式的误差分析

对美国桥梁设计规范中计算可靠指标的一个公式进行分析,认为该公式是近似的,并指出了其近似的原因。分别采用该公式和蒙特卡罗法计算可靠指标,计算结果表明该公式的误差高达30%,远远超出工程容许范围。因此在工程上应用该公式进行可靠指标计算是不合适的。     

Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

学术论文评审指标体系设计

介绍了学术论文评审表设计的原则和评审表的形式。结合多年办刊的实践。设计了一种简单实用的评审表，所设计的内容既有限定问题的选择回答，又留有审稿人自由发挥的空间。     

基于相对业绩比较的报酬契约与代理成本分析

有效的报酬契约是企业所有者激励经营者努力工作的最佳动力，该文在考虑了相对业绩比较信息条件下，运用委托代理理论探讨了将货币收入和享受闲暇作为经营者的激励物的最优报酬契约，分析了非对称信息条件下实施契约的代理成本，得出了经营者利润分享系数与影响因素之间的关系模型以及代理成本与影响因素之间的关系模型，该文还设计了经营者的股票期权激励机制，并地某些企业作了案例分析，文章阐明股票期权激励能够将经营者的长期行为和利益与企业的长期目标结合起来，是调动经营者积极性的有效手段。     

图的直积和字典积的Laplacian谱和Kirchhoff指数

由图G1、G2的Laplacian谱得到了它们的直积G1×G2和字典积G1[G2]的Laplacian谱,并计算了R(G1×G2)和R(G1[G2]).     

Environmental Issues of Geothermal Development in Yangbajing, Tibet and the Countermeasures

The pollution source and pollution state of surface water is respectively assessed with equal-standard-pollution-load index and Nemero index, and the habitans' health is assessed as well by comparison with pre-development of geothermal field. Results show that: 1 ) Three pollutive factors obviously fail to attain the required standards and their order sorted by impact degree is As＞F- ＞S2-. 2) The Nemero index of Donggua cross section of Duilongqu River is 0. 725and the water quality is at mildly-polluted level. 3) In Lhasa River, the Nemero indexes of cross sections affected by geothermal fields are much higher than that of the unaffected one, which shows the present and potential impacts of geothermal development. 4) Much more inhabitants nearby got trichomadesis sickness after geothermal development, which shows that the surface water pollution in this area has threatened the inhabitants' health. In addition, other environmental issues caused by Yangbajing geothermal development are analyzed and some countermeasures are proposed.     

脂肪腈结构与凝聚型性能之间定量关系的研究

借助于分子拓扑学探讨了脂肪腈的凝聚型性能与分子结构之间的关系，提出一个结构基础明确的定量关系式．对乙腈到二十一烷腈的计算结果表明，沸点、密度和折光指数的计算值都很接近实验值．应用这一定量关系，不仅能够合理表征脂肪睛结构与凝聚型性能的关系，而且有助于揭示物质结构与性能关系之间的奥秘。     

中国股票市场分割(1991～2000)的理论探讨

与世界其他国家的证券市场相比,中国证券市场是一个高度分割的市场,这首先表现在它被划分成为A、B和H股三个市场,这三个市场不仅计价货币、交易机制和募集方式不同,而且各自允许开放的投资者对象也严格限定、互不开放。由此,这三个市场的股票价格彼此差别较大。重点考察了中国大陆的股票市场分割,其重要体现是中国B股市场普遍存在着严重的折价问题,在B股市场向国内持有外币的投资者开放之前,大多数上市公司B股价格不仅远低于其A股价格,有的还曾跌破发行价、资产净值和面值,这使得我国B股市场已经成为世界证券市场平均市盈率最低的市场,其平均市盈率只有11倍,这不仅大大低于A股市场平均市盈率(大于50倍),也低于国际股市的平均市盈率(15～20倍)。认为,资本控制,即投资限制、B股相对于A股的信息不对称和对人民币汇率的预期是形成B股折价的主要因素。     

统计因素分析法刍议

本文主要就统计因素分析法中不变因素的固定时期问题．提出了“先变因素和后变因素”的观点，从而对统计指数理论难以解释的问题．变得较为容易处理。     

汕头市API指数年变化规律及控制对策

对汕头市全年空气主要污染物指数年变化规律进行统计、分析 ,结果显示 :其年变化规律受季节及气象要素影响 ,可吸入颗粒物浓度偏高的主要原因与人群活动有较密切关系 .并提出相应的控制对策 :加强对机动车尾气的控制、工业污染源管理和做好垃圾有效处理、主干道定期洒水降尘及绿化固土等工作