Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于MDA机制的跨洋航空网时隙分配方法

考虑到飞机跨洋飞行的限制性条件,提出了一种改进的多单元双向拍卖机制来满足跨洋航空主干网的时隙分配的需要。该机制将VCG双向拍卖和传统的多单元双向拍卖进行结合和改进,并从激励相容、预算平衡、个人理性和机制效率等方面证明了该双向拍卖机制的性质。最后的仿真结果表明,该双向拍卖机制具有较高的效率。     

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use survey data on five bilateral exchange rates to provide empirical evidence of the fact that professional forecasters of foreign exchange rates behave irrationally, in the specific sense that they respond inaccurately to available information in the market when forming their predictions. In particular, we find systematic biases in the forecasts resulting in the overreaction of analysts to past information contained in the exchange rate dynamics: forecasters change their prediction more than it would be rational on the basis of past realized changes. In addition, forecasters are heterogeneous in their irrationality: low performers in previous periods show a more pronounced overreaction effect. This can be read as an indication of perpetration of past errors and continued inability to learn from the past. In the second part of the paper, we exploit the novel structure of our dataset, which consists of survey data extracted from the Bloomberg platform and readily available to anyone. This feature allows us to consider their own and others' past forecasts as part of the information set that analysts use in making their predictions. By using past forecasts as proxies for relevant macroeconomic variables, we find evidence that analysts fail to correctly process not only the information contained in the spot rate past dynamics but also the information in this broader set. We see this as confirmation of the existence of inefficiency and heterogeneity between low and high performers also when full information is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

能量有效的NOMA多用户-多信道匹配算法

针对非理想信道状态信息(channel state information, CSI)下面向海量用户的无线资源高效分配难题,通过引入非正交多址(non-orthogonal multiple access, NOMA)技术提出了一种能量有效的多用户-多信道匹配方案。首先,考虑用户中断概率约束,建立以最大化系统能量效率为目标的非理想CSI蜂窝下行NOMA系统信道和功率联合分配优化问题;然后,将建立的含概率约束的优化问题转化为非概率约束优化问题,并从中解耦出用户-信道匹配优化问题;最后,将面向能量效率的NOMA用户-信道匹配优化问题映射为婚姻匹配问题,进而提出一种高效低复杂度的双边匹配算法实现了多用户-多信道的动态匹配。仿真结果表明,提出的匹配算法性能优于传统匹配算法,能够提供更高的系统能效、实现更低的用户中断概率且收敛速度更快。     

基于作战环的不同节点攻击策略下的作战网络效能评估

基于作战环思想, 以作战网络抽象模型为基础, 围绕作战环的分类、定义、形式化描述、数学模型等基本问题开展了理论研究, 进一步丰富了作战环理论体系。同时, 以能否快速有效打击对方目标实体为根本依据, 建立了基于目标节点打击率和基于目标节点打击效率的作战网络效能评估指标。通过仿真实验, 将作战环相关理论运用于不同节点攻击策略下的作战网络效能评估, 为实际作战体系对抗中双方的攻击与防护提供应用指导, 也为进一步开展基于作战环的作战网络应用研究提供参考借鉴。     

利用热电导理论研究低杂波电流驱动效率

文章在典型的低杂波电流驱动实验中采用低杂波功率扫描的方法研究了低杂波电流驱动效率。利用热电导理论得到的拟合公式拟合实验数据得到了低杂波完全非感应电流驱动效率以及热电导对电流驱动的贡献,低杂波的全波驱动效率为η0=0.349×10^19Am^-2W^-1,由热电导贡献的电流驱动为η1=0.674×10^19Am^-2W^-1。实验发现热电导在等离子体环电压不为零的时候通过和电场的协同作用大大增强了电流驱动。     

基于类Matern点过程模型的异构蜂窝网建模

在研究异构蜂窝网基站部署及网络性能时,经常使用随机点过程模型,其中泊松点过程模型是一种常用模型.针对泊松点过程模型中存在多点聚合的现象,引入类Matern点过程模型,对比分析了使用类Matern点过程模型与泊松点过程模型时系统的接入概率和系统效能.结果显示,所用模型能在使用较少资源的情况下显著提升系统效能.进一步针对类Matern点过程模型与泊松点过程模型都存在用户更倾向于接入宏蜂窝的问题,引入一个偏好因子,使得选择毫微微蜂窝的用户更多,从而使网络负载得到均衡,网络性能得以提升.     

基于用于推进的功率定量分析运输效率的发展趋势(英文)

基于Nakazawa教授提供的有关20世纪70年代到2008年相关船舶数据,对船舶特定输出功率(SOP)进行定量分析,探讨船舶运输效率的发展趋势和制约因素.     

触摸屏在砌块成型机中的应用

在控制系统中,触摸屏作为PLC输入和输出设备,通过使用相关软件设计适合用户要求的控制画面,实现对控制对象的操作和显示,本文介绍了三菱F940型触摸屏运用到砌块成型机中的一般方法。     

激光显示的概念与分析

激光显示相关的技术，是一种新兴的显示领域技术，其将激光光源作为主导，具有色域覆盖区域大、饱和度高和方便实现较高分辨和大屏幕影像等特点。文章介绍了激光显示的概念、特点、现存状态与发展趋势，讨论了激光显示的优势以及现阶段所存在的主要问题，分析了激光显示的发展前景，展示了激光显示作为新生一代显示相关技术的巨大潜力。