试论中国男篮在26届亚锦赛中的实力体现与分析评价

以第26届男篮亚锦赛前七名中与中国队交战过的五场比赛作为研究对象,对中国队进攻、防守等各项能力指标进行量化分析。结论是:1.中国队的进攻效率等6个指标处于领先水平,其居前的数据与内线进攻实力较强有关,但进攻中的优势正日渐减弱;2.中国队防守中的攻防转换得分等3项主要数据高于对手,重视防守是本届中国队比赛取胜的关键;3.中国男篮在亚洲仍占排头兵地位。同时提出几点建议,期望有益于我国篮球技术水平的进一步提高。     

图书馆服务质量评价模式新探

介绍了现有的图书馆评价模式,分析并指出了现有图书馆评价模式存在的问题,探讨了改进图书馆评价工作的思路,尝试提出了一个新的图书馆服务质量评价模式。     

雪野水库洪水风险管理研究

随着经济的发展和社会的进步,城市水资源缺乏的问题日益严重.运用漫坝风险分析理论,综合考虑影响漫坝的洪水、风浪、库容、泄水能力四方面的不确定性,建立了雪野水库大坝对抗洪水系列与风浪系列联合作用下的漫坝风险模型,对雪野水库漫坝安全做出评价.结合下游河道的泄洪能力、淹没范围等具体情况,通过风险计算及分析比较,提出了相应的水库优化调度方案,使水库在不增加工程投资的情况下,调蓄能力增加了1988万m3,提高了水库的经济效益和社会效益.     

教学过程的变量分析（一）

本文利用微分方程理论和线性化方法探讨了如何分析教学过程中的有关变量，并在此基础上提出了相应的数学模型，最后，给出了教学设计中应注意的几个问题。     

Advances in SVM-Based System Using GMM Super Vectors for Text-Independent Speaker Verification

For text-independent speaker verification, the Gaussian mixture model （GMM） using a universal background model strategy and the GMM using support vector machines are the two most commonly used methodologies. Recently, a new SVM-based speaker verification method using GMM super vectors has been proposed. This paper describes the construction of a new speaker verification system and investigates the use of nuisance attribute projection and test normalization to further enhance performance. Experiments were conducted on the core test of the 2006 NIST speaker recognition evaluation corpus. The experimental results indicate that an SVM-based speaker verification system using GMM super vectors can achieve appealing performance. With the use of nuisance attribute projection and test normalization, the system performance can be significantly improved, with improvements in the equal error rate from 7.78% to 4.92% and detection cost function from 0.0376 to 0.0251.     

量化科技绩效考核办法创新人才资源激励机制

量化考核科技人员绩效办法是一个客观、公正、公平的考核和评价体系,采用定性与定量相结合的方式综合考核,用"一面镜子照全院,一把尺子量全员",融进了国内外诸多的先进管理理念.一是规范了管理者的管理行为准则,考核评定科技人员,避免了"见仁见智"的人为因素,真正做到公开、公正、公平;二是完善了分配机制,谁干得多就得分多,谁做得出色谁就加分,谁贡献最大谁就获得最大回报;三是摈弃了"论资排辈",推进了"能上能下"的竞争机制和人员流动机制,从制度上将激励每一位科技人员,尤其是年轻科技人员的岗位成才、岗位争做贡献的积极性和能动性并取得了显著的经济效益.     

福费廷业务发展新趋势研究

在介绍福费廷情况的基础上，着重阐述了国际福费廷业务的发展新趋势，以期对我国出口企业在选择贸易融资工具上有所启发和助益。     

Forecasting value‐at‐risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS‐GARCH) model

Accurate modelling of volatility (or risk) is important in finance, particularly as it relates to the modelling and forecasting of value‐at‐risk (VaR) thresholds. As financial applications typically deal with a portfolio of assets and risk, there are several multivariate GARCH models which specify the risk of one asset as depending on its own past as well as the past behaviour of other assets. Multivariate effects, whereby the risk of a given asset depends on the previous risk of any other asset, are termed spillover effects. In this paper we analyse the importance of considering spillover effects when forecasting financial volatility. The forecasting performance of the VARMA‐GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), which includes spillover effects from all assets, the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), which includes no spillovers, and a new Portfolio Spillover GARCH (PS‐GARCH) model, which accommodates aggregate spillovers parsimoniously and hence avoids the so‐called curse of dimensionality, are compared using a VaR example for a portfolio containing four international stock market indices. The empirical results suggest that spillover effects are statistically significant. However, the VaR threshold forecasts are generally found to be insensitive to the inclusion of spillover effects in any of the multivariate models considered. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

民营企业财务风险的成因及防范对策

通过对民营企业财务风险现状、表现形式、形成原因的分析．论述了民营企业财务风险的防范，     

概率型活动网络的计算机模拟

尝试将网络计划技术与风险分析结合起来，突破了传统的ＰＥＲＴ网络计划只考虑单一关键线路的限制以及每项活动持续时间均服从β分布的假定。在ＰＥＲＴ中真正引入随机因素，利用计算机模拟技术，对实际复杂系统进行大量的动态模拟，从而获得描述系统特征的数值，为决策提供了科学的依据。