Indirect and direct acoustic aggression in cicadas: first observations in the Palaearctic genus Tibicina Amyot (Hemiptera: Cicadomorpha: Cicadidae)

Tibicina Amyot is a cicada genus of the Palaearctic biogeographical region with seven taxa (species and subspecies) distributed in France. As in other cicadas, the sound production by tymbal vibration is restricted to males. In Tibicina, males are attracted by conspecific calling songs and tend to form groups of several individuals which maintain a minimal distance between each other. Observations based upon male–male interactions in such aggregations and on some preliminary experiments conducted with males kept in captivity revealed for the first time both indirect and direct aggression. Spacing and chorusing are interpreted as a by-product of indirect aggression mediated through the calling song. Direct aggression occurred when spacing is not respected. It is achieved through a ritualistic sequence that involves mainly the production of the rivalry song, an acoustic signal previously reported in the literature for two cicada species only. In addition, satellite males and male–male courting are reported. These preliminary results suggest that the sound social organization in the genus Tibicina is more elaborate than first suspected and should be reconsidered in terms of lek behaviour and sexual selection.     

Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model‐averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57 : 247–262) with a hold‐out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

澳大利亚的科技管理体系初探

自2007年澳大利亚联邦政府设置了“创新、工业和科研部(DIISR)”,较传统科技管理体系,现今澳大利亚的科技管理体系发生了重大变革.本文重点介绍了新时期澳大利亚的“单核心多元科技管理体系”——绝对核心,各决策咨询机构和政府科研机构.     

韩国科技管理体制发展与演变探析

自20世纪60年代以来,韩国的科技发展取得了巨大的成就,其科技管理体制发挥了重要的作用.针对韩国科技管理体制形成与发展演变过程中经历的科技管理体系初步形成,以科技部为宏观管理决策部门的集中协调型管理体制,以及李明博政府对科技管理体制的重大调整等三个重要阶段进行了系统的分析研究,并对韩国科技管理体制的特点进行了总结和讨论.     

复杂性管理对企业核心竞争力的提升

在分析企业系统复杂性影响因素的基础上,指出企业可以通过合理配置复杂性、组织设计、文化建设等方面降低不合理的复杂性;提高个体认知和处理复杂性的能力;为增加有效复杂性提供空间;形成企业核心竞争力。     

食物分类与血压的关系研究

目的通过对人群不同食物分类的摄入天数的调查,分析食物分类与血压之间的关系。方法随机从某单位选取101名职工为调查对象,年龄在31～57岁,男性34人,女性67人。所有调查对象均进行膳食问卷调查和血压的测量,通过logistics回归分析食物分类与血压之间的关系。结果血压偏高组人群平均每周摄入各类食物的比例均较血压正常少,其中蛋类及其制品、豆类及豆制品、谷类（大米,面食,杂粮）、牛奶及奶制品、肉类（猪,牛,羊,家禽）、新鲜蔬菜和水果的天数明显少于血压正常纽（P〈0．05）;通过logistics回归分析发现,谷类、牛奶及奶制品摄入的天数的增多对血压有一定的保护作用（P〈0．05）,其logistics回归分析OR值分别为0．61、0．41。结论食用谷类及奶制品对于预防高血压发生有重要的意义。     

东坪基岩气藏气水相对渗透率的确定方法

东坪基岩气藏储层岩性差异大,非均质性强.孔缝发育区岩石松散,无法钻取完整的岩芯,而致密带几乎不渗透,无法通过驱替实验获取相对渗透率曲线,这成为困扰气藏动态分析和开发指标计算的难题.基于水驱气藏物质平衡原理,建立了不依赖水侵量的储层含水饱和度计算方法,避免了水侵量计算方法中的不确定因素,提高了含水饱和度计算的准确性.建立...     

A356.2铝合金生产过程中的设备管理效益

介绍了在当前铝加工行业较为困难的情况下,A356.2铝合金生产线的设备选型,提出了几种创造效益的新思路,论证了设备管理不再是狭义上的设备技术管理,而是更广义的生产力管理.设备管理需根据市场经济要求,不仅为生产服务,更要为提高企业的经济效益服务,为提高产品质量、降低能耗、控制污染、减少成本和占领市场服务.     

高校档案工作现代化的再思考

从历史和现实的角度,对我国高等学校档案工作实现现代化的基础、目的和措施,提出了切实可行的系统办法.     

市盈率变动与盈余管理的关系

分析盈余管理的涵义,从契约论与信息经济学2个角度诠释盈余管理产生的理论基础;借助Edwards-Bell-Ohlson（EBO）模型阐述市盈率P/E的涵义及其与公司业绩的关系;从市盈率变动、公司成长性以及公司价值可能被错误评价角度,分析市盈率变动与盈余管理的关系,提出防范盈余管理的建议.