Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

老龄产业发展战略的思考

论述新世纪发展老龄产业的意义、作用、制约因素和内容．目的在于通过老龄产业的发展来解决日趋严重的人口老龄化问题；并运用实证分析法阐明经济发展、计划生育、社会安定与人类进步的关系。     

甲烷与水分子氢键相互作用的理论研究

使用Gaussioan94程序包，在B3LYP／6—311G**基组水平上，对甲烷(CH4)与水分子(H2O)之间的所有相互作用方式进行优化．通过电子布居分析，发现在电子给予体O原子和电子接受体H原子间存在氢键，氢键的键长约为0．2574nm．振动模式分析表明，只有一种加合物是稳定的，势能面也证实了这一点．     

广义系统的某些性质

本文定义了广义系统的消失性,并给出了判别消失性的充要条件,进而给出了广义系统的闭环谱与其动态补偿器的谱不相交的充要条件.最后利用广义系统的一种特殊分解给出了广义系统脉冲可控的充要条件.     

ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMY GROWTH WITH THE THEORY OF DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS

In order to describe the interrelation forces among different regions during the economic growth, this paper introduces and analyzes the dynamical system model with the theory of differential systems dynamics. A practical example based on a simplified model is given to analyze the dynamical process of Sichuan economy growth.     

文山州人口素质现状与人才开发的几点思考

从文山州人口的受教育程度可以反映出，文山州目前的人口素质现状是令人担忧的，在此基础平台上，文山州人才资源的学历结构、地域分布、民族分布、行业分布等存在着严重的不平衡，这种状况，极大地制约着文山经济社会的发展。为此，开发文山人才资源，尤其是盘活文山现有人才资源就具有重要的战略意义。     

基于改进等分节点法的启发式布局算法

针对集成电路标准单元模式的布局问题，提出了一个全新的基于改进等分节点法的启发式标准单元布局算法(TETP)，该算法在优化布局过程中采用改进的等分节点法寻找单元目标位置，同时结合局部寻优的启发式算法，对MCNC(Microelectronics Centre of North-Carolina)标准单元测试电路进行实验。结果表明，与布局工具Timber Wolf7．0和FengShui相比，电路布局的总线长度分别平均减少了16％和17％。     

高铁混合垢化学清洗技术

作者研制了高铁混合垢的化学清洗配方及工艺,经生产应用收到了良好效果,除垢率及缓蚀率均超过劳动部标准和水利电力部标准.     

晋中水果产业发展的思考

介绍了晋中市水果产业现状，分析了晋中市水果产业的优势以及存在的问题与不足。从调整树种、扩大特种杂果的栽植、提高果品附加值等方面，提出了晋中水果产业发展的思路。     

中国咨询业的现状及发展对策

在分析我国咨询业的现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了发展我国咨询业的对策。