Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.     

尾矿坝振动实验数据样本容量的优化研究

针对铀尾矿坝振动实验逸出氡累积浓度数据样本容量设计的主观性,本文基于偏向角绝对值均值递减还原逸出氡累积浓度曲线,采用随机起点等距抽样方法,得到不同样本容量的数据子集;通过曲线拟合和样本决定系数度量不同子集对还原实验数据集的代表能力。在保障实验研究精度条件下,得到使实验成本较优的最小样本容量,实验结果表明在样本决定系数大于0.98时,优化后样本容量为实验数据样本容量的10%以下。     

基于非等量采样的伪码同步技术研究

针对数字通信系统中伪随机噪声(pseudo-random noise, PN)码同步技术的同步精度受限于采样间隔的问题,结合可变群时延的高精度同步思想,利用采样点位置偏移量的变化,推导出了非等量采样(non-commensurate sampling, NCS)下的PN码相关函数解析表达式,提出了基于精度因子的NCS率选取准则,通过精度因子可快速判断出NCS后PN码的同步精度下限。在此基础上,分析了码序列周期、接收机前端滤波器等附加因素对PN码同步精度的影响。对NCS率选取准则的研究,为优化数字通信系统设计提供了理论指导,达到以低硬件消耗实现高精度同步的目的。     

用抽样调查法确定图书的平均出版年代与平均出版价格——以洛阳市图书馆保存本书库为例

在抽样调查理论的指导下,确定了保存本书库图书的平均出版年代、平均出版价格的估值区间,给出了平均出版年代、平均出版价格的正态分布密度函数,在此基础上确定了保存本书库所有图书在特定时间区间、价格区间内的数量分布情况,提出了优化馆藏结构的建议。     

Testing for the usefulness of forecasts

Ashley (Journal of Forecasting 1983; 2 (3): 211–223) proposes a criterion (known as Ashley's index) to judge whether the external macroeconomic variables are well forecast to serve as explanatory variables in forecasting models, which is crucial for policy makers. In this article, we try to extend Ashley's work by providing three testing procedures, including a ratio‐based test, a difference‐based test, and the Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach has the advantage of allowing the flexibility of adapting all possible information content within a decision‐making environment such as the change of variable's definition due to the evolving system of national accounts. We demonstrate the proposed methods by applying six macroeconomic forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Researchers or practitioners can thus formally test whether the external information is helpful. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气溶胶取样测试技术研究与实验验证

气溶胶过滤效率是衡量安全壳过滤排放系统性能的重要指标。以安全壳过滤排放系统的研制为背景，针对高温空气和水蒸汽混合介质条件下的固体粒子气溶胶取样及测试技术进行研究，解决了水蒸汽存在条件下气溶胶的取样测量中存在的问题，设计完成了一套可用于安全壳过滤排放系统气溶胶过滤效率检测的取样测试系统。通过多角度对比和实验分析，最终确定了采用疏水性聚四氟乙烯滤膜能够满足混合气体的采样需求。此外实验中发现滤膜的吸湿性和静电效应对测量的准确性影响较大，而采用滤膜恒重和使用铝箔纸的方法能有效解决该问题，提高测量的准确度。在此基础上，完成了取样测试回路的实验验证，并对结果进行了不确定度分析，证明了本套系统能够满足实验需求。     

一类正交基插值尺度函数的构造

给出了一类正交基插值尺度函数的构造方法.这类尺度函数具有指数衰减性.并给出它们具有一阶和二阶光滑性的条件.最后举了一个构造算例.     

超低频时域谱仪及其应用

根据因果律及线性响应理论研制超低频时域谱仪。采用国际优先数或等时间间隔取样,并在傅里叶变换前进行时域拟合。用纸介电容证明了唯象理论所预言的同一介质样品在不同的条件下应出现自由和随机两种不同的弛豫规律;对铁氧体蕊电感的研究,分出了线性和非线性项。     

生物洁净室浮游微生物的检测容量

本文根据洁净室微生物(细菌)采样服从 Poisson 分布这一特点,从理论上探讨了不同级别洁净室浮游菌最小采样量。推荐了洁净室和医院手术室合适的采样量,提出了评价洁净室级别的细菌学指标,为今后生物洁净室细菌检测和级别评价提供了一些参考数据。