灰色马尔柯夫模型在交通量预测中的应用

交通量预测是道路交通规划与路面设计的基础,由于影响交通量生成和增长的因素具有层次复杂性、关系模糊性、动态变化随机性和指标数据不确定性等,从而导致交通量的预测结果与路面实际运营数量之间有较大差异.本文利用改进的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔柯夫随机过程理论,建立了交通量的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型.实例计算分析表明,该模型具有较强的适用性,预测得到的交通量数据具有较高的精度和可靠度.     

交通事故预测模型的研究

通过分析道路交通事故发生的特点,从不同的角度,建立了模糊图模型、非线性回归模型及基于灰色理论的灰色预测模型.重点针对道路交通事故灰色和随机不确定性,研究了一阶单变量灰色预测模型,即GM（1,1）模型.经对其进行实例检验,其结果可信,且较传统的预测算法更科学、更合理.     

试论道路交通安全管理的实施

我国道路交通安全水平令人堪忧,已成为世界上道路交通事故最频发的国家之一。为提高道路安全水平,文章试从分析诱发交通事故的各项因素出发,科学性地提出道路交通安全管理实施的建议与措施。     

Multi-Path Routing and Resource Allocation in Active Network

An algorithm of traffic distribution called active multl-path routing (AMR) in active network is proposed. AMR adopts multi path routing and applies nonlinear optimize approximate method to distribute network traffic among muhiple paths. It is combined to bandwidtb resource allocation and the congestion restraint mechanism to avoid congestion happening and worsen. So network performance can be improved greatly. The frame of AMR includes adaptive traffic allocation model, the conception of supply bandwidth and its‘ allocation model, the principle of congcstion restraint and its‘ model, and the implement of AMR based on multi-agents system in active network. Through simulations. AMR has distinct effects on network performance. The results show AMR is a valid traffic regulation algorithm.     

Dynamic Routing and Wavelength Assignment for Multi-Lightpath Demands

In wavelength division muhiplcxing (WDM) networks without wavelength conversion functionality, we convert the dynamic routing and wavelength assignment problem for multi-lightpath demands to the cdge-disjoint paths problem, and propose a new algorithm. The computer simulations show that the proposed algorithm has better blocking probability performance them a sequential algorithm, which first separates a multi-lightpath demand into mutilple single-lightpath demands, then uses the fixed alternate routing first fit wavelength assignment (AP- FF) algorithm for each single-light path demand.     

A Routing Algorithm in WDM Mesh Metworks with Grooming Capacities

Most of the work in traffic grooming has been in the area of providing efficient network designs in Wavelength division multiplexing （WDM）. The objective of these traffic grooming algorithms is to reduce the cost of overall networks. In this paper, a routing algorithm based on transiently chaotic neural network is proposed to solve the problem in WDM logical topology. The objectives of the routing algorithm are ac commodating all traffic requirements and using less network resource. The simulation shows that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the routing selection, meanwhile the algorithm can use less network resource.     

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of MPEG-4 Video Traffic

The main research motive is to analysis and to veiny the inherent nonlinear character of MPEG-4 video. The power spectral density estimation of the video trafiic describes its 1/f^β and periodic characteristics.The priraeipal compohems analysis of the reconstructed space dimension shows only several principal components can be the representation of all dimensions. The correlation dimension analysis proves its fractal characteristic. To accurately compute the largest Lyapunov exponent, the video traffic is divided into many parts.So the largest Lyapunov exponent spectrum is separately calculated using the small data sets method. The largest Lyapunov exponent spectrum shows there exists abundant nonlinear chaos in MPEG-4 video traffic. The conclusion can be made that MPEG-4 video traffic have complex nonlinear be havior and can be characterized by its power spectral density,principal components, correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent besides its common statistics.     

太阳黑子活动对近地空间的电磁辐射影响

太阳活动特别是黑子、耀斑的爆发所产生的电磁辐射和高能带电粒子流会影响和破坏近地空间环境,给空间技术造成重大影响,危害人造卫星的正常运行,X射线爆发会导致地球电离层受到突然骚扰,因而使短波通信衰减,甚至中断.统计和研究结果还表明,地球上的自然灾害、交通事故、人类的健康和某些流行疾病也受太阳活动的影响.根据美国的交通事故数据与太阳黑子数目的变化周期作对比,对其中的关系作了讨论,最后提出关于太阳黑子对交通事故影响的结论和看法.     

长沙市城区道路单向交通系统研究

单向交通是一种投资少、见效快、操作简单的交通管理措施,在改善城市交通组织、提高道路网运行效率、充分利用现有道路资源、挖掘道路的交通潜力等方面具有明显的优势.研究探讨单向交通的原理、实施条件和原则等问题,分析长沙市单向交通系统的应用情况,具有重要的现实意义.     

多传感器管理的目标分配问题蚁群算法研究

多传感器管理的目标分配问题中如何使探测和跟踪效益最佳，是非常重要又十分困难的问题。分析了传感器管理的目标分配问题各种解算方法的特点及存在的问题，结合蚁群算法思想，提出了一种新型的目标分配算法模型，并进行了算法仿真。仿真结果表明，基于蚁群算法思想的目标分配算法是有效的，特别是问题规模较大时更显示出其较快的收敛速度和较高的精度。