The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on nowcasting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). We show that all three data categories positively impact on the accuracy of GDP nowcasts, whereby the effect is largest in the case of real activity data. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain an important ingredient for the nowcasting exercise. The subsequent analysis shows that the sectoral coverage of survey data, which is broader than that of timely available real activity data, as well as their information content stemming from questions focusing on agents' expectations, are the main sources of the ‘genuine’ predictive power of survey data. When the forecast period is restricted to the 2008–09 financial crisis, the main change is an enhanced forecasting role for financial data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

建立支持宏观经济决策研讨厅的预测模型系统

为了提高对宏观经济问题的研讨效率,研讨厅应为参加研讨的专家提供进行宏观经济预测的各种预测模型。然而,传统模型库结构框架建立的预测模型系统,已不能很好地满足支持宏观经济决策研讨厅的要求,本文从分析研讨厅的具体需要出发,提出了利用Agent理论和技术设计和实现适合支持宏观经济决策研讨厅的Agent预测模型系统。     

意见综合——怎样达成共识

复杂系统问题的解决单靠数据、信息和模型是不够的,钱学森等提出综合集成方法要把专家、决策者的意见综合进去,然而,这些意见未必相同,因此要达成共识就有很多工作要做。本文从系统的角度探讨共识的定义、基本概念以及取得共识的过程、方法和工具。     

Predatory behaviour in Deltochilum: convergent evolution or a primitive character within a clade?

We present data on predatory behaviour in Deltochilum cupreicolle viridescens, which belongs to the subgenus Aganhyboma, and we contrast it with the behaviour of a species from the subgenus Deltohyboma. By this comparison we can investigate whether the predatory behaviour in Deltochilum could have appeared independently in these two subgenera, or if the behaviour is so similar that it suggests a single origin in a possible ancestor exclusive to those two groups. These laboratory studies on the behaviour of Deltochilum c. viridescens individuals on diplopods are described and divided into the following stages: (1) approach and recognition of the diplopod; (2) attack and death of the prey; (3) on-site feeding; (4) transport of the diplopod. The results found here strengthen the hypothesis of a primitive and highly specialized behaviour within a possible clade formed by the predatory species of Diplopoda.     

球形GaAs-Ga1-xAlxAs量子点中激子束缚能的变分法计算

用无限深势阱和有限深势阱2种模型,计算了激子束缚能与球形量子点半径的关系.计算结果表明：对于无限深势阱模型,量子点中激子束缚能随着量子点的半径增加而减小;对于有限深势阱模型,当量子点半径较小时,束缚能随着量子点的半径增加而增加;当量子点半径增加到一定值时,它的束缚能达到最大值,继续增加量子点半径,束缚能反而减少.这些计算结果对深入理解半导体量子点中激子的物理本质具有一定学术意义.     

电子商务环境下的会计报告

分析了电子商务时会计报告内容和时效性的影响,介绍了电子商务环境下的会计报告模式,阐述了事项法实时报告系统的会计处理流程以及实时报告系统的实现方式.     

基于"工作过程系统化"情境教学法在《数控综合实训》中的应用

在<数控综合实训>课程教学中,运用"工作过程系统化"的情境教学法来设计教学环境,模拟企业生产模式,让学生充分感受企业实际生产环境,并扮演不同角色,以突出职业教育的职业性,实现跨界教育,实现了学习与工作的对接.     

“过程法”模式在大学英语写作教学中的运用

如何改进大学英语写作教学的现状，提高学生的写作水平一直是广大高校英语教育工作者关注和研究的难题。本文探讨了一种新兴的教学方法一过程法的内涵和意义，并提出了在教学中实施过程写作法的具体步骤及取得的效果。     

高职GPS定位测量课程实训教学探讨

本文结合高职教育对《GPS定位测量》实训课程教学的要求，从多个方面探讨了实训课程教学过程应该注意的事项，对提高实训课教学水平起到一定的借鉴作用。