Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高校图书馆工作人员素质提高策略初探

现代社会的发展，给高校图书馆带来巨大的压力与挑战。图书馆员的整体素质如何，将关系到图书馆事业的未来发展。高校图书馆应从提高其馆员整体学历水平、建立和完善岗位培训制度、使全体馆员牢固树立终身学习的观念三方面来提高工作人员的整体素质，推动图书事业的持续发展。     

一种测试圆度的新算法

轴承的外圆环、内圆环是否圆以及圆的程度如何,都会对使用轴承的机械设备产生很大的影响,但是它们是否圆,靠肉眼是很难观察出来的,我们只能用仪器进行测量,假设仪器测量的结果是准确的或者误差是确定的,由于算法不合理,可能本来是圆的但得到的结果却是不圆的,这样就把本来是合格的产品当作废品处理了,这是不应该出现的问题,本文提供了一种新的算法来解决此问题.     

关于双语课程《数字电子技术》学习状况的调查与思考

以问卷调查的形式,通过描述性统计和定量分析,对我校双语课程《数字电子技术》学习状况进行了调查和分析,在此基础上,对双语教学提出了一些建议.     

研究性学习中的心理学思想探析

研究性学习视学生为一个完整的人，注重学生个性的培养，重视学生潜能的开发以及整体素质的协调，这其中渗透着激发学生学习动机、使学生达到自我实现等心理学思想．该文对研究性学习的几个特点的心理学思想进行了分析。     

大学生学习焦虑心理研究

通过分析大学生学习焦虑心理的成因以及学习焦虑控制问题。论述了大学生学习焦虑心理与学习成绩的关系。     

磁粉制动器的滑差功率研究

首先用理论方法对经过结构优化的磁粉制动器的滑差功率进行了计算，然后在自行设计、安装的实验台上对其进行了温升实验，所得理论计算值和实测值的一致性较好，在此基础上确定了它的额定滑差功率线图。     

Using genetically-defined rodent strains for the identification of hippocampal traits relevant for two-way avoidance behavior: a non-invasive approach

Summary Genetically-defined rodent strains permit the identification of hippocampal traits which are of functional relevance for the performance of two-way avoidance behavior. This is exemplified here by analyzing the relationship between infrapyramidal mossy fibers (a tiny projection terminating upon the basal dendrites of hippocampal pyramidal neurons) and two-way avoidance learning in about 800 animals. The necessary steps include 1) identification of structural traits sensitive to selective breeding for extremes in two-way avoidance, 2) testing the robustness of the associations found by studying individual and genetical correlations between hippocampal traits and behavior, 3) establishing causal relationships by Mendelian crossing of strains with extreme structural traits and studying the behavioral consequences of such structural randomization, 4) confirming causal relationships by manipulating the structural variable in inbred (isogenic) strains, thereby eliminating the possibility of genetic linkage, and 5) ruling out the possibility of spurious associations by studying the correlations between the hippocampal trait and other behaviors known to depend on hippocampal functioning.In comparison with the classical lesion approach for identifying relationships between brain and behavior, the present procedure appears to be superior in two aspects: it is non-invasive, and it focuses automatically on those brain traits which are used by natural selection to shape behaviorally-defined animal populations, i.e., it reveals the natural regulators of behavior.     

自然伽玛曲线上的“海侵针”及其地质意义

自然伽玛曲线上的尖锥状～针状特高异常—“海侵针”,常可指示海侵作用与海相层的存在:“阵发式”海退与“振荡式”海退则是含煤岩系形成过程中两类常见的利于聚煤的海退类型.     

Internal interactions within the human circadian system: the masking effect

Summary In the realm of human circadian rhythms, the masking effect is defined as the change in the course of deep body temperature induced by changes in the degree of physical activity, or by the alteration between sleep and wake. This effect is particularly obvious during internal desynchronization where the rhythms of deep body temperature, and the sleep-wake sleep-wake sleep cycle — i.e. one of the masking factors — run with different periods.Every sleep onset is accompanied by a rapid drop, and wake onset by a rapid rise in deep body temperature, each one with an overshoot of about 50% of the steady state variations. When rhythms are calculated, with the dominant temperature period as the screening period, exclusively from data obtained during sleep episodes, on the one hand, and from those obtained exclusively during wake, on the other, two average cycles emerge: the sleep temperature curve and the wake temperature curve. Both run in parallel but are separated by the masking effcct. As derived from many experiments, the mean masking effect amounts to 0.28±0.06°C. The masking effect also depends to some extent on the phase of the temperature rhtthm; it is larger than average around the temperature maximum and during the descending phase of the temperature cycle, where the alertness commonly is highest and the probability to sleep, in general, and the REM sleep propensity, in particular, are smaller than average. This also can be interpreted to indicate that the sleep temperature curve is phase advanced relative to the wake temperature curve; this, on the average, by 0.9±0.3 h.If the individually determined amount of masking is added to the temperature data obtained during sleep, or substracted from the temperature data obtained during wake, a temperature curve emerges that can be though of as being purified of the masking effect. Analyses of this artificial curve allow estimation of that part of the internal interactions uninfluenced by the masking effect. On the average, about half of the amount of interaction between the rhythm of sleep-wake and that of deep body temperature is explained by the masking effect, whereas the other half is oscillatory interaction. Both types of interaction are inherent and inseparable parts of the circadian clock mechanism, as can be deduced from model considerations.