能源供求予测模型

本文论述了三种予测能源需求的方法,并对其作了评价;提出了一种能源供应予测模型;最后对我省能源、经济、予测研究提出了建议。     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国居民消费水平的中长期预测

根据全国1992－1999年居民消费水平的统计数据，采用灰色系统理论的数据预测及缓冲算子公理，结合定性分析，建立了GM（1，1）模型，预测了我国2000－2005年居民消费水平的发展前景。     

Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

钢筋混凝土框架抗震模型分析

介绍了分离式、组合式、整体式3种钢筋混凝土有限元模型，通过对整体式模型的详细分析，推导出适舍该模型的线性单元矩阵，并得出一些工程中有用的结论。     

GAL器件的编程和复制系统的研制

本文在原有破译仪的基础上,研制了GAL器件的编程系统,扩充了原系统的编程和复制功能,使用户能对任何GAL16V8或GAL20V8编程的GAL芯片进行破译、编程和复制,在用户自己的开发环境中设计所需的逻辑系统。     

模数转换(A/D)集成电路设计原理及其应用技术

随着数字信号处理技术的不断发展和人们对电子产品质量要求的不断提高,模数转换(A/D)集成电路芯片已成为电子产品设计中最关键的芯片器件之一,它的性能优劣直接决定着电子产品的质量.介绍了几种主要的A/D集成电路的基本原理,分析了各类A/D芯片的性能特点及其应用范围,指出了提高不同应用领域A/D芯片质量的关键技术及其发展趋势.     

集成化质量管理在新产品开发中的应用

随着全球化经济和科学技术的发展，质量概念以及质量管理的内涵正在发生巨大变化，质量管理业己成为企业生产经营活动的关键环节。讨论了传统质量观念的不足、现代经济技术环境对质量管理工作所提出的新的要求，分析了集成化质量管理系统的信息模型，提出了企业在新产品开发中应用集成化质量管理的方法，以增强企业整体质量管理能力，提高其提供的产品质量水平。     

Detecting myocardial ischemia with 2-D CVIB imaging method--an in vivo animal experiment study

A 2-D cyclic variation of integrated backscatter (CVIB) imaging method was established for detecting myocardial ischemia. To demonstrate the feasibility and validity of this method, animal experiments were conducted. Acute myocardial ischemia was induced by occluding left anterior descending coronary artery in 10 anesthetized open-chest dogs. While scanning the normal hearts and the ischemic hearts with a B scanner, digital radiofrequency data were acquired by a real-time acquisition system in synchronism. The offline analysis to the radio-frequency signal with the 2-D CVIB imaging method was performed to verify the consistency between the imaging result and the design of the experiment. In addition, 4 dogs in experiment were treated with the heart pacemaker in order to investigate the influence of changing in heart rate on the detection of ischemic myocardium with the proposed method. The experimental result showed that the 2-D CVIB imaging method succeeded in detecting the ischemic myocardium and is a new non-invasive way for the cardiologists to both quantitatively and visually evaluate the contractile performance of the myocardium.     

小窑采空区在地震勘探时间剖面上的解释

从山西晋城小窑采掘现状入手，结合钻探制作煤全采、未采、半采三种模型的合成地震记录换层分析，分析其波形特征，标定了时间剖面上的采空区段与矿方实际采空区基本吻合。