Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

MA/AA水相聚合及性能评价

合成了马来酸一丙烯酸共聚物阻垢剂,对引发剂用量、溶剂水量、催化剂用量以及反应温度等影响反应结果的主要因素,通过实验进行优选。结果表明:在马来酸酐50份、丙烯酸11份固定的条件下。采用引发剂25份、溶剂水15份、催化剂0.03份、反应温度100℃、反应时间4h,合成的共聚物阻垢效果最佳。静态阻垢性能测试结果(按照Q/SYDQ0833-2002标准进行评价),阻垢率达82.5%。其效果优于马来酸单聚物,且成本低于1:1摩尔比的马丙共聚物。     

晚清政府关于外国人内地游历政策的特点与评价

鸦片战争后,中国逐渐沦为半殖民地半封建国家。在列强的武力威胁下,清政府被迫签订《天津条约》等一系列不平等条约,开始允许外国人进入中国内地游历。为加强对内地游历外国人管理,清政府相应制定了管理外国人的内地游历政策。从政策本身来看,内地游历政策是比较严密的;但就政策的制定过程和完善措施来说,内地游历政策又具有相当大的被动性与滞后性。晚清政府关于来华外国人的内地游历政策,是中国近代外交政策的重要组成部分,是晚清时期中国走向现代化的具体反映。     

对跨学科大学高等研究院评价的几点思考

在梳理中国现有大学高等研究院的基础上,从学科类型、数量质量、评价对象、评价主体、评价方法、评价过程六个方面构建了大学高等研究院评价框架.然后结合我国高等研究院发展的特点,对如何做好大学高等研究院评价工作提出了一系列的建议.     

模糊综合评判法在城市交叉口综合质量评价中的应用

为了全面评价城市交叉口综合质量,选择了交叉口混合交通运行状态评价指标,并通过指标隶属度函数研究建立了相应的模糊综合评判模型.结合实例对其综合运行质量进行了评价分析和聚类排序,从而为评估城市交通拥堵、制定相应的交通管理和控制策略提供了一种有效的定量分析方法.     

摩托车声品质评价的神经网络方法

针对声品质评价过程中线性回归模型评价结果的不足,采用BP神经网络对人的主观评价结果进行预测.采集摩托车在不同发动机转速下驾驶员耳旁的声信号样本,采用分组成对比较法进行主观评价试验,选取了响度、尖锐度、粗糙度作为神经网络模型输入参数,结合主观评价结果对模型进行训练与检验,并与线性回归模型输出结果进行比较.结果表明,选取驾驶员双耳响度、尖锐度、粗糙度作为模型输入能够较为准确地反映人耳对摩托车噪声的主观感觉.     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

On the Modelling and Forecasting of Multivariate Realized Volatility: Generalized Heterogeneous Autoregressive (GHAR) Model

Recent multivariate extensions of the popular heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) for realized volatility leave substantial information unmodelled in residuals. We propose to employ a system of seemingly unrelated regressions to model and forecast a realized covariance matrix to capture this information. We find that the newly proposed generalized heterogeneous autoregressive (GHAR) model outperforms competing approaches in terms of economic gains, providing better mean–variance trade‐off, while, in terms of statistical precision, GHAR is not substantially dominated by any other model. Our results provide a comprehensive comparison of the performance when realized covariance, subsampled realized covariance and multivariate realized kernel estimators are used. We study the contribution of the estimators across different sampling frequencies, and show that the multivariate realized kernel and subsampled realized covariance estimators deliver further gains compared to realized covariance estimated on a 5‐minute frequency. In order to show economic and statistical gains, a portfolio of various sizes is used. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三种方法测定碱性磷酸酶对肝疾病的诊断价值

目的研究血清碱性磷酸酶检测临床肝疾病时的方法学,提高临床诊断价值。方法收集临床不同肝疾病病人的血清,分别用3种方法测定其碱性磷酸酶的活性,并与健康对照组比较作诊断性能分析。结果各肝疾病组血清碱性磷酸酶的活性与对照组相比有极显著差异（P〈0．001）;3种方法分别测定各组之闻的血清碱性磷酸酶活性无显著性差异（P〉0．05）。2．乙基氨基乙醇、2-氨基-2-甲基-1-丙醇、二乙醇胺3种缓冲液测定试剂盒方法测定的灵敏度分别为55．20％、47．96％、51．13％,特异度分别为100％、100％、93．75％。结论血清碱性磷酸酶可以作为各类肝病的临床诊断指标;对肝疾病血清碱性磷酸酶测定用2,乙基氨基乙醇缓冲液的试剂方法测定效果较好。     

元谋干热河谷区民营水土保持效益评价

民营水土保持是当今水土保持生态建设中出现的一种新模式,是水土保持走向市场的重要标志。本文以农户调查数据为基础,运用层次分析法,对元谋干热河谷区民营水土保持效益进行评价。研究显示,目前民营水土保持是以经济效益为主导,兼顾生态效益和社会效益;农户的思想开放程度、经营模式和理念、技术水平、市场等因素是影响效益的主要因素,提出政府应建立完善的制度体系,支持鼓励民营水土保持的发展。