Forecasting local currency bond risk premia of emerging markets: The role of cross-country macrofinancial linkages

In this paper, we forecast local currency debt of five major emerging market countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey) over the period January 2010 to January 2019 (with an in-sample period: March 2005 to December 2009). We exploit information from a large set of economic and financial time series to assess the importance not only of “own-country” factors (derived from principal component and partial least squares approaches), but also create “global” predictors by combining the country-specific variables across the five emerging economies. We find that, while information on own-country factors can outperform the historical average model, global factors tend to produce not only greater statistical and economic gains, but also enhance market timing ability of investors, especially when we use the target variable (bond premium) approach under the partial least squares method to extract our factors. Our results have important implications not only for fund managers but also for policymakers.     

竞争视角下企业股权融资问题的模型研究

股权融资已成为助推企业快速成长的重要融资途径,企业在资本层面上的融资决策受到运营层面上市场竞争的影响.本文基于竞争视角构建了零售商的股权融资模型,分析面临良好市场机会的零售商采取股权融资进行市场开拓过程中,市场竞争对其股权融资决策的影响.核心的研究发现是:高成长性、高估值或产品替代性强的零售商在采取股权融资进行市场开拓过程中必须重视市场竞争的"双增"作用,而低成长性、低估值且产品替代性较弱时市场竞争对零售商股权融资的影响较小;市场竞争抑制了零售商的股权融资,提高了其原股东的持股比例和利润,但阻碍了高成长性零售商的快速发展.     

基于MCMC方法的两类波动模型的应用比较

采用中国股市数据，运用基于Gibbs抽样的MCMC方法对ARCH—GARCH模型族与SV模型族进行了比较分析．实证结果显示，无论是从收益率序列峰度系数的描述看，还是从平方收益率序列自相关函数的描述来看，SV模型族都优于GARCH模型族；进一步，基于t分布的模型模拟效果总是优于基于正态分布的模型，看出股市收益率序列并不服从正态分布，     

对外资入股中国银行的思考

中国银行改制成立股份公司，将引入国外战略投资者。阐述了外资入股的意图、入股比例。以及引入外资股东对改善中国银行的公司治理结构产生的影响。     

创佳彩电江西市场营销方略

在竞争异常激烈的彩电市场中，作为后起之秀的创佳彩电如何运作江西市场，从区域市场划分、营销模式、经销商选择、物流配送、品牌宣传、服务等方面进行了分析。     

纯粹型控股公司股权价值评估

以纯粹型控股公司股权价值评估为研究对象，在介绍、比较目前三种公司价值评估技术方法即相对价值评估法、贴现现金流量估价法和期权估价法及其各自特点和适用范围的基础上，提出了运用现金流贴现法中的红利贴现模型评估纯粹型控股公司股权价值的观点，并就如何具体运用红利贴现模型评估纯粹型控股公司股权价值做了详细论述。     

江苏省整县改市、整乡改镇利弊论

从８０年代中期起，江苏实施整县改市、整乡改镇的行政体制改革工作．城镇是经济发展的产物，是人类社会、经济活动的中心，但在地域上仅占世界各国的一小部分．不能模糊和混淆城市与农村功能上的差别，不宜迷信和夸大县改市对经济发展的作用．人口城市化已成为历史潮流，中国应走发展小城镇的路子，平稳地实现人口城市化．     

Addressing equity issue in multi-actor policymaking via a system-of-systems approach: Aviation emissions reduction case study

Finding equitable policy solutions is critical for developing sustainable energy use.This paper presents a system-of-systems(SoS) formalism for addressing the equity issue in multi-actor policymaking.In a SoS,the control of the overall system performance is shared among a network of actors.In contrast to a single optimal solution that aggregates objectives of actors,the solution concept of iso-performance is formulated and employed to illuminate multiple solutions and hence the ’space’ for actors to compromise.By specifically accounting for the equity issue,the level of sacrifice each actor makes for each iso-performance solution is computed.To demonstrate the approach,a case study is presented about policymaking to reduce fuel life cycle aviation emissions in the United States based on the year 2020 reduction target,involving government,airlines,jet fuel refinery companies,and aircraft and engine manufacturers.A resource allocation mixed integer programming model is employed to calculate carbon emissions resulting from airlines’ deployment of aircraft fleet to meet changing air transport demand.The paper discusses three iso-performance solutions;each of them requires a different level of sacrifice from each actor.Such an insight can inform policymaking in determining the magnitude of compensation required when a particular solution is pursued.     

On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach

Past research indicates that forecasting is important in understanding price dynamics across assets. We explore the potentiality of multiscale forecasting in the crude oil market by employing a wavelet multiscale analysis on returns and volatilities of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil indices between January 1, 2001, and May 1, 2015. The analysis is based on a shift-invariant discrete wavelet transform, augmented by an entropy-based methodology for determining the optimal timescale decomposition under different market regimes. The empirical results show that the five-step-ahead wavelet forecast that is based on volatilities outperforms the random walk forecast, relative to the wavelet forecast that is based on returns. Optimal wavelet causality forecasting for returns is suggested across all frequencies (i.e., daily–yearly), whereas for volatilities it is suggested only up to quarterly frequencies. These results may have important implications for market efficiency and predictability of prices on the crude oil markets.     

从“原初状态”的理论视角解读我国教育公平

教育公平是实现社会公平的重要基础,它关系到所有学生和家长的切身利益。现阶段,我国＂把促进公平作为国家基本教育政策＂。教育公平问题成为亟待解决的教育及社会问题。以罗尔斯无知之幕为逻辑起点,运用原初状态理论及正义两原则：自由平等的原则和差别原则,特别是其包含的最大最小值原则、补偿原则等,剖析中国教育公平的瓶颈,以期正确解读中国教育公平问题。