面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统研究

依据博弈论的思路并借助于人工神经网络的机理设计并实现了一个面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统,该系统既为企业的战略制定与实施初步提供了一种无代价的实验手段,又验证了有关企业过程再造的主要理论假设,弥补了其实证研究的不足.并在一家企业得到了应用.     

瓶颈道路使用收费的理论及模型

从经典的瓶颈模型开始,论述了道路系统达到最优使用状态的可能性及措施,提出了道路使用的动态收费策略,并对进一步扩展瓶颈模型的有关问题作了探讨.     

非线性离散动态大系统的DISOPE关联预测递阶算法

提出了一种非线性离散动态大系统系统优化与参数估计集成的关联预测递阶算法 .在各子系统模型与实际存在差异的情况下 ,将动态系统系统优化与参数估计集成 ( DISOPE)方法与关联预测法相结合 ,得到一个上级协调 ,下级进行各子系统优化与参数估计集成的双环迭代算法 ,从模型出发通过迭代运算能得到实际系统在存在模型 -实际差异时的真实最优解 .仿真结果表明了算法的有效性和实用性.     

短期生产计划中产品完成期的动态决策

生产计划和决策是一个企业成功运营的关键。在研究了产品完成期的基础上提出了动态甘特图 ,用于短期生产计划中产品完成期的动态决策。该动态甘特图具有形象、直观和易于决策等特点。仿真结果表明了它的有效性。     

Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States

The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网壳结构基于性能的动力失效判定准则

基于性能的设计思想,文章提出了一种网壳结构震后是否发生动力失效的判定准则。按常规设计的网壳结构遭遇地震后,保留残余应变的状态并作为初始状态重新进行常规设计,如果此时网壳结构已不能满足初始设计时所要求的各项性能,则认为网壳结构已发生动力失效;进而将网壳结构的动力失效形式分为Ⅱ类,该文提出的准则用于判定第Ⅱ类动力失效,称为第Ⅱ类失效准则;算例分析表明,该准则判别结果明确,便于工程实践的应用。     

动态测量精度损失实验系统

在长期的使用过程中动态测量系统的测量精度不可避免会逐渐降低,将直接影响测量结果的精度和可靠性,掌握动态测量系统的精度损失规律,可以采取有效的措施来提高测量精度。该文介绍了一套动态测量精度损失实验系统,可实现对动态测量系统在长期使用过程中的精度损失规律的研究。实验结果表明用该实验系统研究动态测量系统的精度损失规律是可行的,可以为提高动态测量系统的测量精度提供理论依据。     

土钉瞬态应力动力特性对比研究

基于探索性的洞室土钉支护试验,概述了洞室土钉支护抗动载试验的基本情况,并给出了洞室拱顶土钉的测试数据。依照实验现象,考察对比了毛洞段与土钉支护构措段的瞬态应变和炸药药量的关系,及其两者的瞬态应变和加载次数的关系,构措段具有较好的降低应变的能力。依照一维粘弹性理论对拱顶土钉进行了Maxwell模型的参数拟合;并用此模型确定了土钉用建筑钢的动力粘性因数,其与前拟合公式者相近。     

城镇一体化动力机制

以江苏省阜宁县益林、东沟镇为例,在列举了城镇一体化的4种模式后,对两个城镇一体化的动力机制进行了初步的探讨,将城镇一体化的动力归结为3类,即自然生长力、经济驱动力和政府调控力,并以此为基础构建了城镇一体化的动力模型,初步揭示了城镇一体化的动力作用机制。