一种基于模糊规则的非线性系统快速模糊辨识方法

针对以往模糊建模方法中算法中算法过于复杂的问题，提出了一种简单而有交的复杂系统模糊建模新方法。该方法是基于输入空间的模糊划分，计算给定样本在各模糊子空间的隶属度，并列用卡尔曼滤波算法辨识模糊模型的结论参数。整个辨识过程与模糊聚类方法和误差反馈学习方法相比所需的CPU时间最短。最后通过著名的Box-Jenkins煤气炉数据仿真结果证明了该方法的有效性与实用性。     

双参数随机Sierpinski垫的相位曲线

引入双参数随机置换，考虑了具有参数ｐ，ｑ的随机Ｓｉｅｒｐｉｎｓｋｉ垫的各种形态的相位，讨论了ｐ，ｑ跨跃某些相位曲线时，其构成形态的变化情形，它包括了ｑ＝０的Ｓｉｅｒｐｉｎｓｋｉ垫和ｑ＝ｐ的Ｍａｎｄｅｌｂｒｏｔ渗流模型。     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种测试圆度的新算法

轴承的外圆环、内圆环是否圆以及圆的程度如何,都会对使用轴承的机械设备产生很大的影响,但是它们是否圆,靠肉眼是很难观察出来的,我们只能用仪器进行测量,假设仪器测量的结果是准确的或者误差是确定的,由于算法不合理,可能本来是圆的但得到的结果却是不圆的,这样就把本来是合格的产品当作废品处理了,这是不应该出现的问题,本文提供了一种新的算法来解决此问题.     

两个数学建模问题的探讨

探讨了两个在教科书中作为例题的数学建模问题，一个是关于渔业生产的，另一个关于体育训练，对于前者，提出一个更为合理的解法；对于后者，则提出其中数学推导上的错漏并得出新的结论。     

磁粉制动器的滑差功率研究

首先用理论方法对经过结构优化的磁粉制动器的滑差功率进行了计算，然后在自行设计、安装的实验台上对其进行了温升实验，所得理论计算值和实测值的一致性较好，在此基础上确定了它的额定滑差功率线图。     

自然伽玛曲线上的“海侵针”及其地质意义

自然伽玛曲线上的尖锥状～针状特高异常—“海侵针”,常可指示海侵作用与海相层的存在:“阵发式”海退与“振荡式”海退则是含煤岩系形成过程中两类常见的利于聚煤的海退类型.     

Internal interactions within the human circadian system: the masking effect

Summary In the realm of human circadian rhythms, the masking effect is defined as the change in the course of deep body temperature induced by changes in the degree of physical activity, or by the alteration between sleep and wake. This effect is particularly obvious during internal desynchronization where the rhythms of deep body temperature, and the sleep-wake sleep-wake sleep cycle — i.e. one of the masking factors — run with different periods.Every sleep onset is accompanied by a rapid drop, and wake onset by a rapid rise in deep body temperature, each one with an overshoot of about 50% of the steady state variations. When rhythms are calculated, with the dominant temperature period as the screening period, exclusively from data obtained during sleep episodes, on the one hand, and from those obtained exclusively during wake, on the other, two average cycles emerge: the sleep temperature curve and the wake temperature curve. Both run in parallel but are separated by the masking effcct. As derived from many experiments, the mean masking effect amounts to 0.28±0.06°C. The masking effect also depends to some extent on the phase of the temperature rhtthm; it is larger than average around the temperature maximum and during the descending phase of the temperature cycle, where the alertness commonly is highest and the probability to sleep, in general, and the REM sleep propensity, in particular, are smaller than average. This also can be interpreted to indicate that the sleep temperature curve is phase advanced relative to the wake temperature curve; this, on the average, by 0.9±0.3 h.If the individually determined amount of masking is added to the temperature data obtained during sleep, or substracted from the temperature data obtained during wake, a temperature curve emerges that can be though of as being purified of the masking effect. Analyses of this artificial curve allow estimation of that part of the internal interactions uninfluenced by the masking effect. On the average, about half of the amount of interaction between the rhythm of sleep-wake and that of deep body temperature is explained by the masking effect, whereas the other half is oscillatory interaction. Both types of interaction are inherent and inseparable parts of the circadian clock mechanism, as can be deduced from model considerations.     

预应力混凝土箱梁爆炸损伤评估及公式拟合

对预应力混凝土箱梁进行爆炸损伤评估研究。首先,对矩形梁进行爆炸数值分析,结合现场试验结果验证了爆炸数值模型的准确性、可靠性。其次,基于箱梁剩余承载力,建立了箱梁爆后损伤评估准则。通过对预应力混凝土箱梁在不同爆炸工况下的爆后剩余承载力计算,建立箱梁各损伤程度下P?I（超压?冲量）曲线。研究发现,混凝土强度对箱梁超压和冲量临界值影响较大,钢筋屈服强度对超压和冲量临界值影响较小。随着结构损伤等级的增大,各参数对箱梁P?I曲线的影响幅度各不相同。最后,对不同混凝土强度箱梁中各损伤等级P?I曲线进行公式拟合,并对拟合参数β进行分析。     

考虑应力集中的吊车梁多轴疲劳寿命预测

钢结构吊车梁在工业建筑中被广泛应用,应力集中的存在导致几何不连续位置在复杂应力下服役.借助有限元法分析吊车梁应力-应变状态,确定危险点位置,并提取应力、应变分量;以应变能密度作为损伤参量并以最大平面为临界面,基于能量准则建立临界面位置数值计算方法,结合有限元结果给出吊车梁临界面位置;考虑吊车梁在非对称载荷下服役,借助Goodman方程进行平均应力修正,并结合Q355D钢近似S-N曲线计算疲劳寿命.该方法考虑了应力集中处多轴应力对疲劳损伤的影响,可以为复杂应力下几何不连续钢构件的疲劳寿命评估提供新方法.