引入微元法思想的混合测控资源联合调度方法

针对混合测控资源联合调度中存在的资源属性繁多、偏好差异大以及可能出现的调度弧段冲突等问题,借鉴单体制测控网调度研究中的任务需求描述方法,对混合测控任务需求的特点进行分析,给出其任务需求的规范化描述。以测控调度收益值最大为目标,建立混合资源联合调度模型;引入微元法思想,提出了可用弧段扩展复用方法,以此为基础提出了基于改进遗传算法的求解策略。仿真结果表明：所建模型和相应的解冲突算法能有效提高测控需求满足率和测控收益。     

恩格斯《自然辩证法》科学方法论及其当代意蕴

恩格斯《自然辩证法》是一部马克思主义经典著作,以辩证唯物主义认识论为指导,对自然科学发展情况进行了全面考查,系统地论述了科学方法论,总结了科学方法论的理论特征,对科学方法论的运用、创立和发展作出了重大贡献。今天我们学习和研究自然辩证法,掌握科学方法论,对于推动社会进步、促进科技发展、贯彻新的发展理念和提高科学素养具有重要意义。     

Robust model rankings of forecasting performance

This paper investigates robust model rankings in out‐of‐sample, short‐horizon forecasting. We provide strong evidence that rolling window averaging consistently produces robust model rankings while improving the forecasting performance of both individual models and model averaging. The rolling window averaging outperforms the (ex post) “optimal” window forecasts in more than 50% of the times across all rolling windows.     

Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.     

Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

二次母线接有谐波源时谐波电流危害预测估算的分析

具有谐波源的变电所母线,谐波电流的危害程度.可用文中(1).(8).(9)式和表2简捷地进行分析、判断谐波的谐振次数、母线电压畸变率和谐波电流允许值,借以说明谐波电流危害。并用该三式对谐波调研资料进行了分析与对比计算,结果完全符合实际情况,故三式具有普遍意义和应用价值。     

“红军之友社”的成立及其历史贡献

根据黎平会议和扎西会议决议,党和红军决定在川贵边界建立以遵义为中心的新的革命根据地。为此,中央红军在遵义开展了一系列艰苦卓绝的赤化工作。“红军之友社”就是在党和红军的影响和领导下建立和发展起来的,它的发展壮大为中央红军在遵义的土地革命作出了重要贡献。     

火电厂机组最优组合的一种实用算法

本文在文[1] 、[2] 的基础上,根据等微增率准则,对不考虑启动耗量的火电厂机组投入、切除的经济性问题进行了研究。通过引入切换微增率,切换负荷的概念,提出了一种确定火电厂经济运行最优机组组合的实用算法。根据计算结果,调度人员可以了解在什么负荷范围内应选用哪种机组组合方式才是经济的。     

杂萘联苯聚醚砜及其磺化物溶解度参数

用基团贡献法通过拆分计算出=N-的基团贡献数据Fdi、Fpi、Ehi值,并对杂萘联苯聚醚砜及磺化杂萘联苯聚醚砜的三维溶解度参数进行计算,得出了不同磺化度磺化杂萘联苯聚醚砜三维溶解度参数各分量δd、δp和δh的计算公式.结果表明,随着磺化度的提高,磺化杂萘联苯聚醚砜的三维溶解度参数中δh分量显著提高,δp分量略有增加,而dδ分量变化不明显,磺化聚合物的溶解区域向高hδ方向移动.计算结果与实验结果吻合较好,对以后实验中溶剂的选择有重要的指导意义.