基于GSPN方法的柔性制造系统过程模型和性能分析

应用广义随机Petri网方法,对柔性制造系统进行建模和分析,提出了控制策略和优化方法.针对柔性制造系统的离散性,对整个系统的过程模型进行分析.利用广义随机Petri网结合马尔可夫链的方法,确立了系统的配置参数,得出了系统的平均运行时间,机床的平均使用率,系统的生产率,故障概率,对系统的优化和生产效率的提高以及柔性的提高提供了理论支持.最后,通过柔性制造系统实例,对该方法进行了检验.     

面向农产品安全的关键质量链分析

针对农产品质量安全控制问题,在传统过程能力分析的基础上,将农产品食品链视为一个过程网络,应用PERT/CPM的基本思想,提出了基于质量损失的关键质量链分析评价方法。最后以菠菜产品的种植加工进行了实例分析。     

死亡强度服从Ornstein-Uhlenbeck跳过程的长寿债券定价模型

长寿风险不仅使寿险公司和社会保障部门不堪重负,而且对经济和社会的发展产生严重威胁.以对冲长寿风险为目的,根据我国国情设计一种长寿债券,与债券相关联的生存指数是通过Ornstein-Uhlenbeck跳(OUj)过程刻画的死亡强度得到的.考虑到我国利率市场和保险市场的特点,利用正双曲利率模型对债券进行贴现,并通过王氏变换给出不完全市场中的长寿债券定价模型.最后,依据我国生命表数据进行实证研究.     

Research on consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of hybrid uncertain comparison matrix

The consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of the hybrid uncertain comparison matrix in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） are studied. First, the decision-making satisfaction membership function is defined based on the decision making＇s allowable error. Then, the weight model based on the maximal satisfactory consistency idea is suggested, and the consistency index is put forward. Moreover, the weight distributing value model is developed to solve the decision making misleading problem since the multioptimization solutions in the former model. Finally, the weights are ranked based on the possibility degree approach to obtain the ultimate order.     

如何恰当激励零售商的过程创新行为

回购契约可以协调单供应商单零售商组成的供应链系统的订货行为,然而本文研究发现这一契约将过份地激励零售商的过程创新行为,从而损害供应商及整个供应链的利益．在零售商的过程创新行为不可被供应商观察和测量的条件下,利用数量折扣契约机制修正了原有回购契约,并利用这种综合契约机制恰当地激励了零售商的过程创新行为,使得供应链在创新行为下达到协调．     

Interval Time Series Analysis with an Application to the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate

Traditional econometrics has long employed ＂points＂ to measure time series data. In real life situations, however, it suffers the loss of volatility information, since many variables are bounded by intervals in a given period. To address this issue, this paper provides a new methodology for interval time series analysis. The concept of ＂interval stochastic process＂ is formally defined as a counterpart of ＂stochastic process＂ in point-based econometrics. The authors introduce the concepts of interval stationarity, interval statistics （including interval mean, interval variance, etc.） and propose an interval linear model to investigate the dynamic relationships between interval processes. A new interval-based optimization approach for estimation is proposed, and corresponding evaluation criteria are derived. To demonstrate that the new interval method provides valid results, an empirical example on the sterling-dollar exchange rate is presented.     

Process capability analysis and estimation scheme for autocorrelated data

<正>Autocorrelation is prevalent in continuous production processes,such as the processes in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries.With the development of measurement technology and data acquisition technology,sampling frequency is getting higher and the existence of autocorrelation cannot be ignored.This paper analyzes five estimation schemes of process capability for autocorrelated data.Comparisons among these schemes are discussed for small sample and large sample.In conclusion,this paper gives a procedure of process capability analysis for autocorrelated data.     

基于TS模糊模型的热工过程建模方法

热工过程对象通常具有复杂的动态特性和非线性、强耦合、不确定性等特征,从而使得常规建模方法难以取得满意的效果,因此提出一种改进型TS模糊模型在线建模方法。此建模方法基于以下思想,首先提出基于中心粒群算法的截集模糊C-均值聚类算法并对TS模糊模型进行模型结构离线辨识,确定模型的结构和前件部分参数的初始值;然后应用解耦扩展卡尔曼滤波算法进行后件参数在线辨识,同时对前件辨识结果进行精确修正。最后,对煤气炉、500MW机组及气化炉等热工过程进行仿真计算表明本方法具有精度高、计算量小等优点。     

Optimizing Concurrent Product Development Process Using Genetic Algorithm

0　IntroductionTimesaving,timetomarketandcycletimereductionarethenewgoalsandaimsforenterprisesinordertosuccessfullycompeteintothemodernglobalmarket[1].Thereisnodoubtthatconcurrentconsiderationofproductandprocessdesignimprovesproductqualityandreducesthere-designwork,whichleadstoshorterproductlead-time.Buttheconcurrentdevelopmentfashionbringsaboutmoreobstaclessuchascomplextimeorder,informationandresourceconstrainednatureofrelationshipsbetweenactivitiestothedesignprocess,whichleadtothefactthatiti…     

个人资产合理化的灰色层次关联评判模型及其应用

本文以层次分析法和灰色关联分析理论为基础 ,提出灰色层次关联分析法 .用来研究人在各个不同的生命周期 ,在进行个人资产组合时 ,对安全性、流动性和收益性的要求程度及其优先次序的安排 .分析了人在不同的生命周期 ,其投资方式的选择和组合以及如何实现个人资产结构的合理化 .本文还建立了个人资产合理化的灰色层次关联评判模型 ,该模型实用性强 ,操作简便 ,可程序化 .