基于气候灾害影响下的韧性社区评价及建设研究进展

社区作为城市系统中的主要组成单元,在提高城市韧性表现方面,扮演着十分重要的角色。从韧性概念在社区维度的特殊性和表达机制、韧性评价相关政策与方法、社区韧性建设实践等角度,梳理了国内外社区韧性研究进展,总结了社区气候灾害韧性的关键科学问题,提出了中国建设韧性社区的政策建议。     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系,认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境,特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手,相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外,气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用,可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制,有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

心理赋能视角下新生代员工工作投入行为研究——一个跨层中介模型

以我国新生代员工为研究对象,遵循"情境-认知-行为"分析框架,从心理赋能视角打开组织投入氛围对新生代员工行为影响的"黑箱",为有效提升新生代员工工作投入水平提供决策参考。通过对408名员工及其直接领导的配对取样,提出了一个跨层中介模型。研究发现:组织投入氛围越高,员工的个体工作投入水平越高;心理赋能作为一个整体构念,能够跨层部分中介组织投入氛围对员工个体工作投入的正向影响;心理赋能在跨层中介过程中起到显著中介作用的是自主性、效能感、工作意义维度,影响力维度没有起到中介作用。     

疑源类的早期辐射及其意义

通过对元古宙至寒武纪早期疑源类的分析研究表明：新元古代早期和晚期疑源类的辐射分别与全球范围内超级大陆（rodinia)形成及海洋中锶同位素^87Sr/^86Sr值显著上升，陆源物质增加，δ^13C值由负值转为正值的时期相吻合；早寒武世疑源类的辐射与超级大陆（pannotia)的形成、裂解对全球环境的影响有关。认为疑源类在早寒武世的适应辐射，改变了全球生物的营养结构，“中型浮游动物”对小个体棘刺疑源类的有效利用，可能是引发“寒武爆发”的原因之一。     

塔里木河流域中下游典型地物光谱变化规律

由于塔里木河流域中下游距离河道在垂直向的差别,以及气候与人为因素的影响,使植被的空间分布具有异构性.典型地物光谱变化的研究为中下游生态环境的遥感监测提供了基础,实验研究表明:绿色全荣植物中,棉花由于其具有明显绿峰、水分吸收谷和近红外的高反射峰而更加容易识别,其他植物主要差别则集中在550,680,1420 nm附近的反射峰、吸收谷和1920～2500 nm之间的反射率;与绿色植被相比,枯枝的光谱在可见光部分的绿峰和红光吸收谷不明显,但在可见光部分波形有所差别,而与流沙土壤光谱相比,各波段反射率变化较大;对比不同荣枯比例的植物光谱发现,同一种植物随着荣枯配比的变化,除可见光绿峰、近红外反射峰和各水分吸收谷变化外,最明显的是在近红外1420～1820 nm之间和短波红外1920～2500 nm之间反射率随着枯枝的比例增加而明显升高;关于土壤光谱,中下游各断面占主要类型的流沙土光谱相差不大,但是盐碱土和含有一定水分的盐碱土则变化较大,而且反射率基本低于流沙土,结壳土则除在近红外和短波红外部分变化更加平缓而有所差别外,其余波段接近流沙土;同样的土壤背景下,近红外和短波红外部分反射率的差别能够在一定程度上反映覆盖度的变化.     

Sea surface temperature records of core ZY2 from the central mud area in the South Yellow Sea during last 6200 years and related effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

Sea surface temperature (SST) records in the South Yellow Sea during the last 6200 years are reconstructed by the unsaturation index of long-chain alkenones (K 37 U ’) in sediment core ZY2 from the central mud area.The SST records varied between 14.1 and 16.5°C (15.6°C on average),with 3 phases:(1) A high SST phase at 6.2-5.9 cal ka BP;(2) A low and intensely fluctuating SST phase at 5.9-2.3 cal ka BP;and (3) A high and stable SST phase since 2.3 cal ka BP.Variation of the SST records is similar to intensity of the Kuroshio Current (KC),and corresponds well in time to global cold climate events.However,the amplitude of the SST response to cooling events was significantly different in different phases.The SST response to global cooling event was weak while the KC was strong;and the SST response was strong while the KC was weak.The difference in amplitude of the SST response is possibly caused by the modulation effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current which acts as a shelf branch of the KC and a compensating current induced by the East Asia winter monsoon.The warm waters brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current cushion the SST decrease induced by climate cooling,and both the Kuroshio and East Asian winter monsoon play important roles in the modulation mechanism.The SST records display a periodicity of 1482 years.The same period was found in the KC records,indicating that variation of the SST records in the central South Yellow Sea is strongly affected by KC intensity.The same period was also found in Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic and Arabian Sea sediment cores,showing a regional response of marine environmental variability in the East China Seas to that in the global oceans.     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the ...     

The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy. The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data, and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model. A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000. The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.     

温室气体稳定目标下部门减排责任分解方法

为了探讨气候变化背景下温室气体排放权分摊机制这一研究难点,综述了温室气体减排责任分解方法的研究现状,遵循"共同但有区别的责任"思想并利用WRE稳定性廓线和IEA/SMP交通模型,开发了SMP-WRE模型。应用该模型建立了一种产业部门具体减排责任的分解方法,并以中国轻型车部门为例,展示了该方法的实现过程。结果表明:全球轻型车的基准排放是目标排放的2~4倍,说明轻型车部门实现450×10-6和550×10-6的CO2稳定水平难度很大。目标分解后的地区排放变化率欧美国家较小、中国较大,原因是欧美汽车市场规模饱和,而中国汽车正爆发式增加,排放增加不可避免。     

多层次降尺度方法对安徽省月降水量预测的研究

 利用1961～2004年多层次的NCEP环流资料初选出与台站月降水量的显著相关区,通过最优子集回归模型对各初选因子进行筛选和组合,形成了安徽省35个台站的月降水量回归模型,并分别利用NCEP资料和月动力延伸模式环流预报作为输入场对2005～2009年安徽省月降水量进行了回报.结果表明,该降尺度模型包含高低层的多种资料,各因子组合起来可以从统计上反映出一些影响降水的环流配置型,较传统的仅用500hPa资料的降尺度模型内容更为丰富.从回报的效果来看,预测值与实况值平均距平符号一致率为63%,PS评分为75分,其中对涝月的预测效果要好于旱月.