Hybrid Forecasting with Estimated Temporally Aggregated Linear Processes

We introduce a new strategy for the prediction of linear temporal aggregates; we call it ‘hybrid’ and study its performance using asymptotic theory. This scheme consists of carrying out model parameter estimation with data sampled at the highest available frequency and the subsequent prediction with data and models aggregated according to the forecasting horizon of interest. We develop explicit expressions that approximately quantify the mean square forecasting errors associated with the different prediction schemes and that take into account the estimation error component. These approximate estimates indicate that the hybrid forecasting scheme tends to outperform the so‐called ‘all‐aggregated’ approach and, in some instances, the ‘all‐disaggregated’ strategy that is known to be optimal when model selection and estimation errors are neglected. Unlike other related approximate formulas existing in the literature, those proposed in this paper are totally explicit and require neither assumptions on the second‐order stationarity of the sample nor Monte Carlo simulations for their evaluation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

创业投资辛迪加网络中控制权的演化博弈分析

创业投资的高风险性和信息不对称性使创业投资中控制权分配问题逐渐成为关系到风险投资项目成败的关键。本文运用演化博弈方法,分析控制权在辛迪加网络中两类创业投资家之间分配的博弈过程,得出在不同控制权分配比例下相应的演化稳定策略。在此结果上表明即期博弈中,创业投资家的私人收益和项目产出分配值的对比关系与控制权的分配密切相关。     

Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?

Do long‐run equilibrium relations suggested by economic theory help to improve the forecasting performance of a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM)? In this paper we try to answer this question in the context of a two‐country model developed for the Canadian and US economies. We compare the forecasting performance of the exactly identified cointegrated VECMs to the performance of the over‐identified VECMs with the long‐run theory restrictions imposed. We allow for model uncertainty and conduct this comparison for every possible combination of the cointegration ranks of the Canadian and US models. We show that the over‐identified structural cointegrated models generally outperform the exactly identified models in forecasting Canadian macroeconomic variables. We also show that the pooled forecasts generated from the over‐identified models beat most of the individual exactly identified and over‐identified models as well as the VARs in levels and in differences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于小波分析与卡尔曼滤波的网络流量估计和预测方法

将目标状态的小波变换系数向量描述为卡尔曼滤波方法的状态变量,进而建立了网络流量估计和预测模型,能够实现周期内的实时跟踪和动态多步预测.利用CERNET华中地区主干网的实测流量数据对该模型进行检验,所有检验周期网络流量预测值的相对误差均值为4.58%,表明网络流量估计和预测模型具有较强的适用性.     

煤炭海运总量的灰色预测

基于灰色数学理论,通过常规全数据GM(1,1)模型及等维新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型分别对煤炭海运总量进行建模并预测,并与传统的最小二乘曲线拟合所得结果进行比较,结果表明,运用灰色理论所建立的等维GM(1,1)进行预测是可行的,而且精度较传统方法高。     

宁夏彭阳县退耕还林还草研究

运用了生态学、经济学的办法,在彭阳县退耕还林还草的大前提下,对于彭阳县的各种状况进行了分析,探讨了以农林牧复合体系为指导的生了一条果园复合经营脱贫致富的新路子。态农业,并论证了其可行性,分析了三种模式综合所能带来的生态经济效益,开创     

浅谈电力DSM技术及其在中国的发展

主要介绍了电力需求方管理或需求侧管理(DSM)的发展、目的和技术,论述了实施DSM的效益以及DSM在我国的实施情况和前景。     

关于林业行政许可制度若干问题的法律思考

林业行政许可是环境行政许可的一种,对我国的森林生态环境建设及生态、环境、经济的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。通过对林业行政许可的概念、性质、目的、原则及范围等方面的思考,指出了林业行政许可作为环境行政许可的特有属性,并对林业行政许可的完善予以一定思考。     

施工企业索赔创效管理

分析了施工企业做好索赔工作的重要性,提出了索赔创效的一些基本原则和具体方法,并着重强调做好索赔工作的时效性和收集基础资料的重要性.