全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3004篇 |
免费 | 91篇 |
国内免费 | 256篇 |
专业分类
系统科学 | 390篇 |
丛书文集 | 87篇 |
教育与普及 | 26篇 |
理论与方法论 | 31篇 |
现状及发展 | 54篇 |
综合类 | 2760篇 |
自然研究 | 3篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 9篇 |
2023年 | 13篇 |
2022年 | 24篇 |
2021年 | 28篇 |
2020年 | 44篇 |
2019年 | 33篇 |
2018年 | 35篇 |
2017年 | 48篇 |
2016年 | 70篇 |
2015年 | 70篇 |
2014年 | 160篇 |
2013年 | 120篇 |
2012年 | 164篇 |
2011年 | 199篇 |
2010年 | 165篇 |
2009年 | 207篇 |
2008年 | 189篇 |
2007年 | 289篇 |
2006年 | 256篇 |
2005年 | 193篇 |
2004年 | 156篇 |
2003年 | 120篇 |
2002年 | 112篇 |
2001年 | 108篇 |
2000年 | 78篇 |
1999年 | 75篇 |
1998年 | 54篇 |
1997年 | 54篇 |
1996年 | 40篇 |
1995年 | 39篇 |
1994年 | 31篇 |
1993年 | 27篇 |
1992年 | 30篇 |
1991年 | 19篇 |
1990年 | 18篇 |
1989年 | 26篇 |
1988年 | 28篇 |
1987年 | 4篇 |
1986年 | 8篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 4篇 |
1981年 | 1篇 |
1955年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有3351条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
11.
A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
A latent class probit model is developed in which it is assumed that the binary data of a particular subject follow a finite
mixture of multivariate Bermoulli distributions. An EM algorithm for fitting the model is described and a Monte Carlo procedure
for testing the number of latent classes that is required for adequately describing the data is discussed. In the final section,
an application of the latent class probit model to some intended purchase data for residential telecommunication devices is
reported.
Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.” 相似文献
12.
We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
在用人体模型计算内照射比吸收分数的Monte Carlo模拟中,对小尺寸、远距离器官的计算结果通常精度不够,可信度差,这就要求采用减方差技巧。该文采用一个简单模型比较了直接模拟和区域粒子分裂-轮盘赌、强迫碰撞与DXTRAN球、指向概率强迫碰撞3种减方差技巧的效果。结果表明指向概率强迫碰撞方法能更有效解决此类问题。利用中国人体数学模型,选择一组典型的源靶器官对,计算了一个实例,得到了可信度高的吸收分数值并体现了指向概率强迫碰撞方法的优越性。 相似文献
14.
《货币银行学》课程教学方法初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
黄艳艳 《科技情报开发与经济》2007,17(32):218-220
结合《货币银行学》课程的特点,指出了该课程应采用的教学方法。 相似文献
15.
The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
17.
情境教学法在高职高专酒店英语教学中的应用 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文结合情境教学法和酒店英语的特点,阐述了在酒店英语教学中,如何运用情境教学法创设情境,开展课堂教学,提高教学质量。 相似文献
18.
一种直线逼近渐开线齿廓曲线的自适应算法 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
从渐开线弧长公式出发,引入一种能根据加工精度要求来确定逼近线段的段数,并使节点在渐开线齿廓曲线上分布均匀的自适应计算方法。给出计算实例及用AutoCAD来绘制齿轮的方法.以及用VLisp语言编制计算程序和绘图程序的框图。 相似文献
19.
Glauber和Kawasaki动力学下正方格子上伊辛模型居里温度的蒙特卡罗计算 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
利用蒙特卡罗方法研究正方格子上的伊辛模型的相变问题.讨论了不同翻转方式(随机翻转和顺序翻转)以及不同动力学规则(Glauber动力学和Kawasaki动力学)对正方格子上的伊辛模型的居里温度Tc的影响.结果表明,当Glauber动力学占主要地位时,在两种翻转方式下都可以计算出居里温度Tc的值,当Kawasaki动力学占主要地位时,只能用随机翻转的方法获得居里温度Tc. 相似文献
20.
In multivariate discrimination of several normal populations, the optimal classification procedure is based on quadratic discriminant functions. We compare expected error rates of the quadratic classification procedure if the covariance matrices are estimated under the following four models: (i) arbitrary covariance matrices, (ii) common principal components, (iii) proportional covariance matrices, and (iv) identical covariance matrices. Using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate expected error rates, we study the performance of the four discrimination procedures for five different parameter setups corresponding to standard situations that have been used in the literature. The procedures are examined for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 60, and for two to four groups. Our results quantify the extent to which a parsimonious method reduces error rates, and demonstrate that choosing a simple method of discrimination is often beneficial even if the underlying model assumptions are wrong.The authors wish to thank the editor and three referees for their helpful comments on the first draft of this article. M. J. Schmid supported by grants no. 2.724-0.85 and 2.038-0.86 of the Swiss National Science Foundation. 相似文献