我国天然气消费影响因素研究——基于协整分析和误差修正模型

通过对我国天然气消费和GDP、能源效率、能源消费结构之间的协整关系以及Granger因果关系检验,得出我国天然气消费与GDP之间存在长期协整关系,而天然气消费与能源效率、能源消费结构两者之间不存在长期协整性。从误差修正模型的动态分析来看,GDP对天然气的短期波动影响与长期影响效应作用相当,能源效率对天然气的短期消费波动呈负向影响,能源消费结构对天然气的短期消费波动有巨大正向影响。     

Estimation of earthquake losses by using macroeconomic approach

Most earthquake loss studies use an inventory approach by which the predicted damages in various categories of structures and facilities in a concerned region are estimated and added together to obtain the total estimated. Such an approach requires a detailed inventory database of the structures and facilities in the region, which is not always readily available in many regions of the world. Therefore, an alternative means of estimating earthquake losses is used based on several macroeconomic indices such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and population. Based on the published earthquake loss data during 1980–1995, the relations between GDP and earthquake losses have been formulated empirically for several intensity ranges. The world’s land surface was divided into unit cells with 0.5° × 0.5° in size, the GDP of each cell was apportioned based on its population and the GDP and population of the region to which it belongs. The predicted seismic loss of the cell was then estimated from the seismic hazard probability function, its GDP and the empirical relation between GDP and seismic loss. Accordingly, a global seismic loss map is compiled. Employing readily available social economic data as the basis for the vulnerability analysis, the method enables us to obtain seismic loss estimates for regions without a detailed inventory of exposed structures or the required collateral geological information. Seismic loss estimates can also be upgraded easily with social economic data collection for the fast developing areas of the world.     

山西的循环经济

介绍了循环经济在国内外的实践情况,论述了在山西发展循环经济的必要性,提出了在山西发展循环经济的几点看法和建议。     

基于进离场容量转换的协同决策系统

针对机场在突发情况下造成交通流拥挤的问题,引入了CDM理论及算法,并对CDM GDP实施过程及其中的RBS/Compression算法进行研究.研究发现,CDM GDP单纯考虑了进场时隙的分配,未涉及离场容量以及离场时隙的分配问题.因此,基于CDM思想,协同、实时地考虑机场进、离场容量转换问题,在增加机场吞吐率的基础上协同决策进离场序列,给出了进、离场容量优化模型及算法,采用动态规划法进行求解,并结合实际机场航班时刻表数据进行了仿真.结果表明,在特殊外因条件下,进、离场容量相互转换时,协同决策系统能提供最优的解决方案,使机场的进、离场达到最大的吞吐量,并将延误减到最小.     

The Euro‐Sting Revisited: The Usefulness of Financial Indicators to Obtain Euro Area GDP Forecasts

This paper uses an extension of the Euro‐Sting single‐index dynamic factor model to construct short‐term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area by accounting for financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real‐time exercise, the model is used to investigate the forecasting accuracy across the different phases of the business cycle. Our extension is also used to evaluate the relative forecasting ability of the two most reliable business cycle surveys for the euro area: the PMI and the ESI. We show that the latter produces more accurate GDP forecasts than the former. Finally, the proposed model is also characterized by its great ability to capture the European business cycle, as well as the probabilities of expansion and/or contraction periods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展动态评价

动态评价广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展水平,为系统优化提供针对性的建议,为广西海洋生态文明建设和海洋强区建设提供决策参考。本研究运用能值分析理论和方法,构建包括能值密度、能值货币比率、人均能值用量、能值产出率、环境负载率、能值生态承载力、可持续发展指数、海洋绿色GDP、海洋绿色GDP占比的评价指标体系,深入研究2006-2020年广西海洋生态经济系统的运行状况和可持续发展水平,并对广西海洋绿色GDP及海洋绿色GDP占比进行核算。研究发现,广西海洋生态经济系统对自然资源依赖程度大,可更新资源能值占比90%以上。2006-2020年系统总能值增加22.65%,其中可更新资源能值增加20.07%,不可更新资源能值增加3.45倍,废弃物能值增加5.13倍;随着海洋资源不断开发,能值密度提高22.45%,能值货币比率减少77.67%,能值产出率在0.45-0.60波动,海洋经济得到较快发展,涉海人员生活水平有所提高,但海洋资源利用效率不高;系统所承受的环境压力较小,但由于海洋经济粗放发展的负面影响,环境负载率增加2.70倍,能值生态承载力降低1.87%;可持续发展指数的平均值为39.99,总体上...     

物流总成本及其构成与GDP关系的分析

从物流管理的基本目标出发,采用物流成本作为评价指标,把宏观物流总成本的基本构成分为3部分:库存费用、运输费用、管理费用。通过对美国、日本、中国等国家与地区宏观物流成本及其构成与GDP的关系分析,解析出一国物流总成本及其构成与该国GDP关系的一般性规律。     

我国原油进口量与国际原油价格及GDP的实证关系研究

近年来,我国原油进口量稳步提升,原油进口已经成为我国经济可持续发展的重要影响因素。对我国原油进口量与国际原油价格、我国GDP以及三大产业之间的关系进行了深入分析。结果表明,我国原油进口量与我国GDP及三大产业之间存在长期协整关系,而国际原油价格对我国原油进口量影响甚微。通过建立原油进口量以及三大产业之间的VAR模型发现,我国原油进口量对三大产业的影响程度依次为第三产业、第一产业、第二产业。最后根据研究结果,对我国原油战略提出了建议。     

GDP指标核算缺陷及可能的修正方法

国民经济核算体系(SNA)以及体系中的核心指标GDP,是衡量一个国家经济水平和经济发展的重要指标。但该指标在实际使用中存在许多局限性,原因有GDP自身构造上的缺陷,也有人为的扭曲。如何更好地反映一个国家经济发展状况,文章对GDP指标核算提出修正思考。     

基于改进遗传BP算法的产业产值中单位GDP碳排放量的预测研究

针对产业产值中单位GDP碳排放量的预测问题,系统分析了产业产值与能源消耗碳排放量的关系,在传统遗传算法的基础上,根据动态神经网络模型优化算法过程,克服了传统遗传算法的无动态性,提出了改进遗传BP算法.根据2005—2014年北京等10个省市第三产业的单位GDP碳排放量相关数据资料,利用改进遗传BP算法预测各省市在2015年的单位GDP碳排放量,其预测值与真实值的平均误差值为-0.03,其平均相对误差仅为1.06%,说明该算法在数值预测方面的有效性.