论科技传播的流程、障碍及效果评估

随着科技信息在“数量”和“复杂度”两个方面的迅速增长,科技信息的有效传播遇到了难题,科技传播者和普通受众之间以及科学家之间的信息交流也变得越来越困难,结果是现代科学似乎越来越成为知识阶层的特权,普通受众与科学的距离变得更遥远。这对科技的广泛运用带来了较大影响,也直接影响到社会的进步。因此,有关科技传播的问题已成为一个需要深入研究的课题。本文主要就科技传播的流程、障碍及效果评估进行探讨。一、科技传播的流程由哈罗德·D·拉斯韦尔(Lasswell,HarlodD.)提出的5W模式至今仍是引导人们研究传播过程的一种方便的综合性…     

空防对抗中战场态势综合评估的一种新方法

以防空作战实际需要为出发点,从作战指挥的角度对战场态势评估问题进行了深入研究。首先给出了战场态势的一种全新定义,提出了空袭态势和防空态势的概念,将影响态势的因素分为两类,一类为静态因素,一类为动态因素。详细给出了影响空袭态势和防空态势的静态因素、动态因素指标体系,并提出了确定因子表征值的一种新方法,它将因子表征值与因子属性值相区分,定义表征值是属性值对模糊概念的隶属度。在此基础上建立了基于模糊概念层次分解的战场态势综合评估模型。该成果已被用于指挥自动化系统中,为指挥员掌握战场全局以及战役进程提供很好的支持。     

态势评估中的作战群体类型识别

针对类型识别所处理的情报和使用的知识的不确定性,尤其是情报与知识在观点上的不明确性,提出了基于证据理论的情报表示及组合方法,并给出了群体类型的模板表示方法,进而提出了基于组合情报与模板模糊匹配的作战群体类型识别方法。该方法可应用于各个层次的兵力聚合过程,以辅助各个指挥层次的军事决策,提高决策的速度及效率。     

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.     

维修保障系统效能的分形评估算法研究

建模与仿真技术的应用为解决复杂大系统的效能评估提供了一种有效的技术手段。在介绍空军通信装备战时维修保障仿真系统总体结构的基础上,主要侧重于对系统仿真结果的评估,提出了以分形理论为基础的维修保障系统效能评估算法,并与层次分析法和突变评价法的结果进行比较,结论一致。其评估结果可为决策提供定量依据,为解决军事领域的类似效能评估问题提供一种新思路。     

江西省雷电灾害易损性分析及其区划

详细分析江西省自然环境、经济状况和雷灾损失情况,根据该省近9年的雷电灾害统计资料和1951年以来的年平均雷暴日统计资料,选取雷击密度、雷电灾害频数、经济易损指标、生命易损指标作为雷灾易损性评价指标。对江西省各设区市的雷灾易损性进行了综合评估,初步形成了江西省雷灾易损性区划,为防御和减低雷电损失的规划提供了科学依据。     

民工子女义务教育问题及对策分析

随着改革开放的深入和中国城市化进程的加快,与民工一起进城的民工子女的义务教育问题自2003年以来,得到了各级政府和相关学者的高度重视.笔者认为民工子女义务教育存在两大问题,即教育不公和自身问题,究其原因,有政治、经济、社会三方面,可行的对策是构建民工子女义务教育保障模式.     

网箱养殖区野生许氏平的种群数量

利用非线性回归法,评估得到爱莲湾野生许氏平的丰度为0.01 ind/m2,种群数量大体和5.6个大型抗风浪网箱或135个筏式网箱放养的鱼类数量相当.野生鱼类将产生正或负的生态效应,和养殖鱼类竞争DO,因排泄而支持爱莲湾初级生产所需氮的0.8%~1.3%,同时消耗残饵和排出粪便.     

Approach to Weighted Geometric Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit

Weighted geometric evaluation approach based on Projection pursuit （PP） model is presented in this paper to optimize the choice of schemes. By using PP model, the multi-dimension evaluation index values of schemes can be synthesized into projection value with one dimension. The scheme with a bigger projection value is much better, so the schemes sample can be an optimized choice according to the projection value of each scheme. The modeling of PP based on accelerating genetic algorithm can predigest the realized process of projection pursuit technique, can overcome the shortcomings of large computation amount and the difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection pursuit methods, and can give a new method for application of projection pursuit technique to optimize choice of schemes by using weighted geometric evaluation. The analysis of an applied sample shows that applying PP model driven directly by samples data to optimize choice of schemes is both simple and feasible, that its projection values are relatively decentralized and profit decision-making, that its applicability and maneuverability are high. It can avoid the shortcoming of subjective weighing method, and its results are scientific and objective.     

工程保障工作中的粗心因素研究

通过分析导致工程保障人员粗心的主要因素，首次提出了粗心指数的概念及计算方法，并讨论了粗心指数在工程保障工作中的应用，最后给出了几种避免粗心的方法和建议。