模拟结果为什么比实际更暖:简化气候模型结果（英文）

设计了一个非专业人士能够使用、最简化的气候敏感模型,用来研究人类活动所导致的全球变暖的幅度问题.在1990年的第一次IPCC评估报告中,IPCC对其报告中预测的未来全球变暖幅度很有信心,但是随后的观测结果显示全球的变暖幅度只有预测的一半.而自2001年起,全球变暖出现停滞,但是仅仅考虑到二氧化碳浓度的增加,很少有模型能够模拟出这一变化.在已出版的IPCC第五次评估报告的草稿中,IPCC大幅度削减了近期变暖的幅度,并以专家评估代替了模型预测.但是报告中关于未来气候长期变化的预测仍被保留.如果把IPCC模型的总反馈从1.9 W m–2 K–1调整到1.5 W m–2 K–1,气候敏感模型中模拟的温度将从3.2 K降至2.2 K.同时由于反馈很可能是净负反馈,更合适的估计应该是1.0 K.1.0 K是一个能够实现的增幅,21世纪的实际变暖将会小于1 K.即使燃烧所有可开采的化石燃料也不会使全球变暖的幅度超过2.2 K,这一增加幅度也将趋于平稳.本文认为解决IPCC第四、五次报告中评估方法的差异非常关键.一旦这些差异得到解决,人类活动导致的全球变暖在22世纪以及几个世纪以后的平稳态将有可能不会超过IPCC当前模型预测的1/3~1/2.     

Predatory bird populations in the east Mojave Desert, California

We surveyed 7 species of predatory birds weekly during a 12-month period (December 1992 through November 1993) in the east Mojave Desert, California. The Common Raven ( Corvus corax ) was the most frequently observed species with an average of 6.9 sightings per 100 km. Turkey Vultures ( Cathartes aura ), Red-tailed Hawks ( Buteo jamaicensis ), Loggerhead Shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ), American Kestrels ( Falco sparverius ), Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ), and Prairie Falcons ( Falco mexicanus ) were seen in decreasing order of frequency of observation through the study period. Ravens, Red-tailed Hawks, Loggerhead Shrikes, American Kestrels, and Prairie Falcons were seen throughout the year. Turkey Vultures were not present during winter months, while Golden Eagles were seen only during November and December. Turkey Vultures, Red-tailed Hawks, and ravens were most numerous on agricultural lands, while Loggerhead Shrikes were most common at urban areas. Raven numbers increased with increasing number of linear rights-of-way parallel to the survey route. Perching was the most common behavior type, although Turkey Vultures and ravens were often observed soaring, flying, or standing on the ground near highways. Transmission powerline towers and telephone poles were used as perch sites disproportionately to availability.     

Effects of rangefire on soil algal crusts in semiarid shrub-steppe of the Lower Columbia Basin and their subsequent recovery

Effects of rangefire on soil algae in sagebrush steppe in the Lower Columbia Basin were studied. Dynamics of recovery of the soil algal community in the first two years following the fire were also documented. The study site was on the Arid Lands Ecology Reserve managed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Fire decreased the numbers of algae by more than an order of magnitude. Species composition in burned plots was similar to that in unburned plots, although some cyanophyte algae, particularly Nostoc commune , were decimated by the fire. Algal recovery took place in the winter months of the second year. Ninety taxa of algae were identified during the course of the study, over half of which were chlorophytes. Seasonal changes in the algal flora were also noted.     

Range extension of the long-nosed snake, Rhinocheilus l. lecontei, into east-central Utah

A review of the distribution of Rhinocheilus l. lecontei, in Utah, with a northward extension of its range in the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

Emergence as Non-Aggregativity and the Biases of Reductionisms

Most philosophical accounts of emergence are incompatible with reduction. Most scientists regard a system property as emergent relative to properties of its parts if it depends upon their mode of organization-a view consistent with reduction. Emergence is a failure of aggregativity, in which ``the whole is nothing more than the sum of its parts'. Aggregativity requires four conditions, giving powerful tools for analyzing modes of organization. Differently met for different decompositions of the system, and in different degrees, the structural conditions can provide evaluation criteria for choosing decompositions, ``natural kinds', and detecting functional localization fallacies, approximations, and various biases of vulgar reductionisms. This analysis of emergence and use of these conditions as heuristics is consistent with a broader reductionistic methodology.     

A revision of the Nearctic species of Clinohelea Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

The seven species of Clinohelea known to inhabit North America are described and illustrated, and a key is provided for identification. Two species groups are recognized: the unimaculata group and the bimaculata group. Clinohelea longitheca and C. pseudonubifera are new. Clino - helea nebulosa (Malloch) is a synonym of C. curriei (Coquillett) NEW SYNONOMY.     

Living systems analysis and neoclassical economics: Towards a new economics paradigm

This paper points out the flaws in the neoclassical economics paradigm which invalidate it as an economic policy tool and place it in the realm of illusion. An evolutionary paradigm would be more appropriate. The paper outlines how the primary regulatory processes in living systems analysis (LSA) can be applied to both the design of configurations of resources in the secondary regulatory processes and the creation of new resources so as to optimize the output of the economic system as a whole. It is the degree of government intervention which is important, and how it is integrated, not whether there will or will not be intervention.