Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem

Overfishing of large-bodied benthic fishes and their subsequent population collapses on the Scotian Shelf of Canada's east coast and elsewhere resulted in restructuring of entire food webs now dominated by planktivorous, forage fish species and macroinvertebrates. Despite the imposition of strict management measures in force since the early 1990s, the Scotian Shelf ecosystem has not reverted back to its former structure. Here we provide evidence of the transient nature of this ecosystem and its current return path towards benthic fish species domination. The prolonged duration of the altered food web, and its current recovery, was and is being governed by the oscillatory, runaway consumption dynamics of the forage fish complex. These erupting forage species, which reached biomass levels 900% greater than those prevalent during the pre-collapse years of large benthic predators, are now in decline, having outstripped their zooplankton food supply. This dampening, and the associated reduction in the intensity of predation, was accompanied by lagged increases in species abundances at both lower and higher trophic levels, first witnessed in zooplankton and then in large-bodied predators, all consistent with a return towards the earlier ecosystem structure. We conclude that the reversibility of perturbed ecosystems can occur and that this bodes well for other collapsed fisheries.     

An outlier robust hierarchical Bayes model for forecasting: the case of Hong Kong

This paper introduces a Bayesian forecasting model that accommodates innovative outliers. The hierarchical specification of prior distributions allows an identification of observations contaminated by these outliers and endogenously determines the hyperparameters of the Minnesota prior. Estimation and prediction are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The model forecasts the Hong Kong economy more accurately than the standard V AR and performs in line with other complicated BV AR models. It is also shown that the model is capable of finding most of the outliers in various simulation experiments. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From the editors

Political forecasting provides the contextuality needed for decision-making and for forecasting ‘non-political’ trends. To gear political forecasting to these needs, rather than mimicking approaches in other areas, requires recognition of the distinctive nature of political trends, and realism regarding forecast uses, which generally do not benefit from ‘precise’ probabilities, predictions of only major events, or ‘sophisticated’ methodology that sacrifices comprehensiveness for explicitness. Approaches borrowed from other forecasting disciplines have been counterproductive, although contextual approaches, including cross-impact analyses and developmental constructs that integrate political and non-political trends, are promising. Explorations of the consistency of scenario dynamics, taking into account policy responses and non-formalizable complexity, are also useful. Thus the separation of political forecasting from political analysis should be minimized, calling for a redirection of effort away from developing methodology uniquely geared to forecasting, and towards organizing more comprehensive and systematic analytical efforts.     

Atlantic overturning responses to Late Pleistocene climate forcings

The factors driving glacial changes in ocean overturning circulation are not well understood. On the basis of a comparison of 20 climate variables over the past four glacial cycles, the SPECMAP project proposed that summer insolation at high northern latitudes (that is, Milankovitch forcing) drives the same sequence of ocean circulation and other climate responses over 100-kyr eccentricity cycles, 41-kyr obliquity cycles and 23-kyr precession cycles. SPECMAP analysed the circulation response at only a few sites in the Atlantic Ocean, however, and the phase of circulation response has been shown to vary by site and orbital band. Here we test the SPECMAP hypothesis by measuring the phase of orbital responses in benthic delta(13)C (a proxy indicator of ocean nutrient content) at 24 sites throughout the Atlantic over the past 425 kyr. On the basis of delta(13)C responses at 3,000-4,010 m water depth, we find that maxima in Milankovitch forcing are associated with greater mid-depth overturning in the obliquity band but less overturning in the precession band. This suggests that Atlantic overturning is strongly sensitive to factors beyond ice volume and summer insolation at high northern latitudes. A better understanding of these processes could lead to improvements in model estimates of overturning rates, which range from a 40 per cent increase to a 40 per cent decrease at the Last Glacial Maximum and a 10-50 per cent decrease over the next 140 yr in response to projected increases in atmospheric CO(2) (ref. 4).     

Amplitude spectroscopy of a solid-state artificial atom

The energy-level structure of a quantum system, which has a fundamental role in its behaviour, can be observed as discrete lines and features in absorption and emission spectra. Conventionally, spectra are measured using frequency spectroscopy, whereby the frequency of a harmonic electromagnetic driving field is tuned into resonance with a particular separation between energy levels. Although this technique has been successfully employed in a variety of physical systems, including natural and artificial atoms and molecules, its application is not universally straightforward and becomes extremely challenging for frequencies in the range of tens to hundreds of gigahertz. Here we introduce a complementary approach, amplitude spectroscopy, whereby a harmonic driving field sweeps an artificial atom through the avoided crossings between energy levels at a fixed frequency. Spectroscopic information is obtained from the amplitude dependence of the system's response, thereby overcoming many of the limitations of a broadband-frequency-based approach. The resulting 'spectroscopy diamonds', the regions in parameter space where transitions between specific pairs of levels can occur, exhibit interference patterns and population inversion that serve to distinguish the atom's spectrum. Amplitude spectroscopy provides a means of manipulating and characterizing systems over an extremely broad bandwidth, using only a single driving frequency that may be orders of magnitude smaller than the energy scales being probed.     

The genome of the choanoflagellate Monosiga brevicollis and the origin of metazoans

Choanoflagellates are the closest known relatives of metazoans. To discover potential molecular mechanisms underlying the evolution of metazoan multicellularity, we sequenced and analysed the genome of the unicellular choanoflagellate Monosiga brevicollis. The genome contains approximately 9,200 intron-rich genes, including a number that encode cell adhesion and signalling protein domains that are otherwise restricted to metazoans. Here we show that the physical linkages among protein domains often differ between M. brevicollis and metazoans, suggesting that abundant domain shuffling followed the separation of the choanoflagellate and metazoan lineages. The completion of the M. brevicollis genome allows us to reconstruct with increasing resolution the genomic changes that accompanied the origin of metazoans.