A comparison of adaptive structural forecasting methods for electricity sales

This paper presents the results of a study to determine whether new forecasting technologies might be of use to electric utilities for sales forecasting up to 3 years into the future. The methods considered included ordinary least squares on dynamic structural models, autocorrelated error models, adaptive variance and adaptive parameter models. Overall, the more adaptive models performed best, but most of the methods proved vastly superior to simple least squares models which do not take dynamics into account.     

Linkage of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol concentrations to a locus on chromosome 9p in Mexican Americans.

High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are anti-atherogenic lipoproteins that have a major role in transporting cholesterol from peripheral tissues to the liver, where it is removed. Epidemiologic studies have shown that low levels of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) are associated with an increased incidence of coronary heart disease and an increased mortality rate, indicating a protective role of high concentrations of HDL-C against atherogenesis and the development of coronary heart disease. HDL-C level is influenced by several genetic and nongenetic factors. Nongenetic factors include smoking, which has been shown to decrease the HDL-C level. Exercise and alcohol have been shown to increase HDL-C levels. Decreased HDL-C is often associated with other coronary heart disease risk factors such as obesity, hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia and hypertension. Although several genes have been identified for rare forms of dyslipidemia, the genes accounting for major variation in HDL-C levels have yet to be identified. Using a multipoint variance components linkage approach, we found strong evidence of linkage (lod score=3.4; P=0.00004) of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) for HDL-C level to a genetic location between markers D9S925 and D9S741 on chromosome 9p in Mexican Americans. A replication study in an independent set of Mexican American families confirmed the existence of a QTL on chromosome 9p.     

Differentiation of the asteroid Ceres as revealed by its shape

The accretion of bodies in the asteroid belt was halted nearly 4.6 billion years ago by the gravitational influence of the newly formed giant planet Jupiter. The asteroid belt therefore preserves a record of both this earliest epoch of Solar System formation and variation of conditions within the solar nebula. Spectral features in reflected sunlight indicate that some asteroids have experienced sufficient thermal evolution to differentiate into layered structures. The second most massive asteroid--4 Vesta--has differentiated to a crust, mantle and core. 1 Ceres, the largest and most massive asteroid, has in contrast been presumed to be homogeneous, in part because of its low density, low albedo and relatively featureless visible reflectance spectrum, similar to carbonaceous meteorites that have suffered minimal thermal processing. Here we show that Ceres has a shape and smoothness indicative of a gravitationally relaxed object. Its shape is significantly less flattened than that expected for a homogeneous object, but is consistent with a central mass concentration indicative of differentiation. Possible interior configurations include water-ice-rich mantles over a rocky core.     

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands

The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.     

Discovery of an aurora on Mars

In the high-latitude regions of Earth, aurorae are the often-spectacular visual manifestation of the interaction between electrically charged particles (electrons, protons or ions) with the neutral upper atmosphere, as they precipitate along magnetic field lines. More generally, auroral emissions in planetary atmospheres "are those that result from the impact of particles other than photoelectrons" (ref. 1). Auroral activity has been found on all four giant planets possessing a magnetic field (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune), as well as on Venus, which has no magnetic field. On the nightside of Venus, atomic O emissions at 130.4 nm and 135.6 nm appear in bright patches of varying sizes and intensities, which are believed to be produced by electrons with energy <300 eV (ref. 7). Here we report the discovery of an aurora in the martian atmosphere, using the ultraviolet spectrometer SPICAM on board Mars Express. It corresponds to a distinct type of aurora not seen before in the Solar System: it is unlike aurorae at Earth and the giant planets, which lie at the foot of the intrinsic magnetic field lines near the magnetic poles, and unlike venusian auroras, which are diffuse, sometimes spreading over the entire disk. Instead, the martian aurora is a highly concentrated and localized emission controlled by magnetic field anomalies in the martian crust.     

板块构造启动的时间和机制:理论和经验探索

板块构造是指位于对流地幔圈层之上的岩石圈的水平运动,主要由岩石圈在俯冲带的下沉作用所致.板块构造是一个典型的、非平衡复杂体系的自组系统(selforganizing,far from equilibrium complex system,SOFFECS),其驱动力主要来自热边界层(岩石圈)的反向浮力,同时又受控于变形岩石圈与下覆粘性软流圈地幔的耗散作用.在太阳系内侧5个硅酸质行星中,板块构造仅发育于地球,这表明板块构造是硅酸质行星不太常见的一种热散逸方式.目前还不清楚这种构造活动和热散逸方式在地球上是从何时开始的.所有的硅酸质行星在形成初期可能都经历过一次短暂的岩浆海阶段.行星固结后,静止盖层模式是行星冷却的共同途径,即行星表面形成了一个不易活动的固化盖层,此时内部的热量只能通过拆沉作用、热点火山作用和岩浆浅部侵位等方式进行逃逸.由于地球早期温度较高,通过减压熔融形成的岩石圈结构不同于现代岩石圈,即地球早期岩石圈由厚的洋壳和薄的岩石圈地幔构成.这种岩石圈要产生反向浮力需要非常长的时间,因此地球早期即便有板块构造存在,其规模也比较零星.只有当地球冷却到一定程度,扩张中脊下部减压熔融形成薄的洋壳且大洋岩石圈只需几十个百万年就可以产生反向浮力时,才能形成与现今风格相似的、可持续性的板块构造.板块构造启动时间的认识最终取决于人们对相关地质记录(事件)的研究成果.板块构造的判别依据包括蛇绿岩、蓝片岩、超高压变质带、榴辉岩、被动大陆边缘、转换断层、指示克拉通陆块移动轨迹的古地磁研究以及岩浆岩地球化学和同位素构造判别等等.对地质记录的解释必须综合各方面的信息.本人认为现存的地质事件记录了地球构造随时间演化的过程,即太古代时期构造和岩浆活动剧烈,大约在1.9 Ga时开始出现近似的板块构造,在新元古代才开始出现与现代相似的、可持续的、具有深俯冲和板片拖曳特性的板块构造.