效用值为区间数的风险型决策问题分析

从敏感性分析的角度讨论后果效用值用区间数表示的风险型决策问题．基于区间数大小比较的可能度概念，定义了描述行动优劣的行动优性指标，并给出了该指标的若干性质；利用行动优性指标，提出了一种求解效用值用区间数表示的风险型决策问题的方法．针对这个简单直观的决策方法，重点分析了决策评价结果对主观概率变化的敏感性．具体针对当自然状态的主观概率发生变化时，分析了某个行动成为最优行动的可能性，并给出了保证该行动成为最优行动（如果可能的话）的主观概率的变化范围．最后，给出了一个实例进一步阐述了分析结果．     

三峡库区农村中学体育现状的调查

通过对三峡库区11所农村中学体育教师的现状(年龄结构、学历水平)、体育开课情况、课间操、课外体育活动等几个方面的调查,分析了三峡库区农村中学体育存在的问题并提出一些对策与建议,旨在为推动三峡库区农村学校体育的发展提供参考.     

基于径向基函数神经网络的滚动轴承故障模式的识别

The impacts of different groove shapes, numbers, and angle of friction dish on transmitting torque, speed, push pressure in wet speeding clutch are discussed in this paper. Since the wet speeed governing clutch works within hydrodynamic lubrication mixture lubrication. boundary, lubrication and contact situation, the oils combining with a-hydrocarbon or polyester are getting widely used as lubricant.The power-law fluid model with Patir-Cheng average flow model, GT asperity contact model and oil film inertia are applied for average Reynolds equation setting, In order to investigate the relationship between average push pressure within hydrodynamic lubrication and mixture lubrication, average transmitting torque and output speed, the numeral calculation and analysis are presented. According to calculation, it is found that the groove shape, groove angle and groove numbers affect the average transfer torque and push pressure with the speed rate.     

黑龙江省一次能源消费总量和消费结构预测研究

以黑龙江省一次能源为研究对象,选取其1995~2014年一次能源消费的历史数据,构建了改进的BP神经网络模型来预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费总量;重构马尔科夫模型,预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费结构。结果表明：构建的模型模拟预测结果误差小,预测准确度良好。2015~2020年黑龙江省一次能源消费总量基本稳定在9200万吨标准煤;能源消费结构中煤炭、石油和天然气的份额均有所降低,清洁能源占比呈增长趋势;到2020年,一次能源消费结构中煤炭占比仍高达65.39%,清洁能源占比仍处于弱势。建议：降低一次能源的消费总量,尤其是煤炭和石油在一次能源消费中的占比;合理调整一次能源的消费结构,降低煤炭在能源消费结构中的占比;政府出台相关政策,引导消费理念,优先使用清洁能源。     

基于改进的卷积神经网络的钢号识别

为获取样本的多样性特征,提出了一种改进的卷积神经网络结构。该网络中引入多层递归神经网络,利用卷积神经网络提取输入图像的浅层特征,同时利用卷积神经网络和递归神经网络并行提取高层特征,最后将两种网络学习到的特征进行融合输入到分类器中分类。利用迁移学习理论解决小样本集数据训练不足的问题,并将这种卷积神经网络结构应用于石油物资管线钢号识别中。实验探究了递归神经网络个数与卷积核个数对网络性能的影响,实验结果表明,改进的网络结构与其它网络进行对比,错误率降低了 3% 。     

基于萃取和超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法的贝类抗生素快速测定方法

建立一种简单、快速的超声波萃取–固相萃取净化–超高效液相色谱串联质谱分析方法, 可以同时测定淡水贝类软组织中磺胺类、喹诺酮类、大环内酯类、β-内酰胺类和氨基糖苷类中15种抗生素。采取超声波萃取法, 对贝类体内的抗生素进行萃取, 用固相萃取方法净化提取液, 最后用超高效液相色谱–三重四级杆质谱对目标物进行分析检测。主要比较两种固相萃取柱Oasis HLB和Oasis PRiME HLB对污染物的净化效率, 后者展现出较好的结果。15种抗生素加标回收率实验结果表明: 当加标浓度为50 ng/g时, 回收率为64%~121%, 相对标准偏差为0.5%~19% (n=3); 添加高浓度(100 ng/g)样品时, 回收率为67%~117%, 相对标准偏差为1%~9%(n=3)。方法检测限(LOD)为0.004~0.5 ng/g (干重), 定量限(LOQ)为0.013~1.67 ng/g (干重)。该方法具有回收率高、检测限低的特点。使用该方法对鄱阳湖3个采样点三角帆蚌中的抗生素进行分析, 结果显示, 在15种抗生素中, 有9种均不同程度地检出, 检出频率和浓度最高的是甲氧苄胺嘧啶, 最高浓度达到78.8 ng/g, 其次是奇霉素(41.2 ng/g)和环丙沙星(39.8 ng/g)。     

An M/M/1 Queueing-Inventory System with Geometric Batch Demands and Lost Sales

This paper studies an M/M/1 queueing-inventory system with batch demands. Customers arrive in the system according to a compound Poisson process, where the size of the batch demands for each arrival is a random variable that follows a geometric distribution. The inventory is replenished according to the standard (s,S) policy. The replenishment time follows an exponential distribution. Two models are considered. In the first model, if the on-hand inventory is less than the size of the batch demands of an arrived customer, the customer takes away all the items in the inventory, and a part of the customer’s batch demands is lost. In the second model, if the on-hand inventory is less than the size of the batch demands of an arrived customer, the customer leaves without taking any item from the inventory, and all of the customer’s batch demands are lost. For these two models, the authors derive the stationary conditions of the system. Then, the authors derive the stationary distributions of the product-form of the joint queue length and the on-hand inventory process. Besides this, the authors obtain some important performance measures and the average cost functions by using these stationary distributions. The results are illustrated by numerical examples.     

人工水下沙坝对中海滩浴场水动力影响

基于Delft3D软件建立了北戴河中海滩浴场海域的二维及三维潮流和波浪耦合数学模型,并用实测潮流和波浪资料进行模型验证.利用验证后的模型模拟人工水下沙坝引起的水动力环境变化.结果表明:由于工程海域附近的潮流作用较弱,因此潮流影响仅体现在沙坝周围;4座人工水下沙坝具有一定的消浪作用,并且消浪作用随入射波高的增加而增强;总体上看,人工水下沙坝的建造使浴场附近的水动力作用减弱,水动力环境朝着有助于海滩保护的方向发展.     

等效约束下风激励汽车前侧窗玻璃声辐射分析

为研究风激励下汽车侧窗玻璃表面湍流压力脉动激起玻璃振动而向车内辐射噪声的问题,以某试验车左前侧窗玻璃系统为研究对象,首先基于等效原理,将车窗密封条等效成系列弹簧约束,进行离散化建模,并搭建Matlab-Abaqus联合仿真优化平台,得到最佳等效弹簧刚度,建立侧窗系统约束边界等效模型.接着利用Corcos模型计算得到侧窗表面湍流压力脉动的功率谱密度,作为侧窗等效模型的激励,应用有限元方法计算车内驾驶员人耳处的声辐射.最后应用激光测振仪,获得侧窗表面振动速度分布试验数据,利用边界元方法(半仿真)计算车内声辐射.比较两种方法的计算结果,发现200Hz以上声辐射频谱特性吻合良好,证明了利用玻璃边界等效简化模型与Corcos模型作为激励源计算侧窗玻璃振动引起的声辐射有一定程度的适用性.     

Leaching behavior of V,Pb, Cd,Cr, and As from stone coal waste rock with different particle sizes

This paper investigates the leaching behavior of heavy metals (V, Pb, Cd, Cr, and As) from stone coal waste rocks with various particle sizes using dynamic leaching experiments. The results show that the dissolved concentrations of V and As initially increased and then slightly decreased as time progressed and that the dissolved concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Cr were high in the early stage before decreasing. The particle size of the stone coal waste rocks strongly influenced the heavy metal concentration in the leaching solutions. The effects of the particle size of the stone coal waste rocks on the dissolved concentrations of V, Pb, and As decreased in the order fine fraction > medium fraction > coarse fraction, and the effects of particle size on the dissolved concentrations of Cr and Cd decreased in the order medium fraction > coarse fraction > fine fraction and coarse fraction > medium fraction > fine fraction, respectively. The quantities of heavy metals dissolved from the stone coal waste rock with fine particle sizes were observed to decrease in the order V (17104.36 μg/kg) > As (609.41 μg/kg) > Pb (469.24 μg/kg) > Cr (56.35 μg/kg) > Cd (27.52 μg/kg), and the dissolution rates decreased in the order As (2.96%) > Pb (0.93%) > V (0.35%) > Cd (0.25%) > Cr (0.01%). The specific surface area, pore size of the stone coal waste rocks, and chemical forms of heavy metals also influenced the release of heavy metals from the stone coal waste rocks. Kinetic analysis showed that the dissolution of heavy metals fundamentally agreed with the rate equation controlled by the shrinking core model. The results of this study are expected to serve as a reference for the evaluation of heavy metals contamination from stone coal waste rocks.