多阶段项目风险权衡模型

本文通过对风险概念的进一步分析,说明了风险权衡在项目风险分析中的重要作用。并且阐述了多阶段项目风险权衡的两个基本目的,即评估各阶段风险权衡策略的综合效果,以及根据预期风险控制要求,产生各阶段的风险权衡策略。同时,通过给出一些基本假设,引出了一个多阶段项目的风险权衡模型,并且给出了几种简单实用的求解方法：搜索法和启发式法等。最后,就本文所讨论的方法进行了简单的分析。     

机动天基平台惯性/天文组合导航的研究

为了实现机动天基平台的长时间、高精度和低成本自主导航,采用了低精度惯性导航系统和天文导航系统进行组合。以扩展卡尔曼滤波算法为基础,通过建立系统状态方程和量测方程,并进行量测方程的线性化,将捷联惯导和星敏感器分别测得的姿态信息进行数据融合,估计出组合导航系统的误差状态量,从而修正捷联惯导系统的导航参数。仿真结果表明,在1000s内,平台姿态角误差稳定收敛在20?,定位误差优于纯惯导解算,证实了该方案的实用性。     

Operational Patterns of Industrial Symbiosis Network in Industrial Cluster District Based on Circular Economy Theory

Industrial symbiosis network （ISN） is an efficient organizational form for improving resource recycling and efficiency in industrial cluster district. Because of the variety of industrial cluster district formation model, the industrial symbiosis network is different with each other. Based on the circular economy theory, combing with international tendency of cluster district, the paper puts forward the relying-on-oriented industrial symbiosis network. Meanwhile, it also analyzes its organizational mechanism, operating pattern and environmental performance. Through the above efforts, we hope it could be helpful for industry cluster district sustainable development in China.     

序贯观察与选择问题截止阀策略的一个改进

截止阀策略是解决序贯观察与选择问题的有效方法.在多次应用的问题情境下,通过减少截止阀值来降低失败的概率,进而实现平均收益的最大化,代价是减少了观察选项的数量,增加了决策的不确定性.本研究围绕降低失败的概率进行,从降低标竿而非减少截止阀值入手,采用均值标杆改进了最大值标竿的截止阀策略.基于仿真实验的结果显示,改进后的策略具有更好的平均收益和更低的失败概率,同时,还证明了20%就是均值标竿的近似最优解.     

Missile robust gain scheduling autopilot design using full block multipliers

Reduction of conservatism is one of the key and difficult problems in missile robust gain scheduling autopilot design based on multipliers. This article presents a scheme of adopting linear parameter-varying (LPV) control approach with full block multipliers to design a missile robust gain scheduling autopilot in order to eliminate conservatism. A model matching design structure with a high demand on matching precision is constructed based on the missile linear fractional transformation (LFT) model. By applying full block S-procedure and elimination lemma, a convex feasibility problem with an infinite number of constraints is formulated to satisfy robust quadratic performance specifications. Then a grid method is adopted to transform the infinite-dimensional convex feasibility problem into a solvable finite-dimensional convex feasibility problem, based on which a gain scheduling controller with linear fractional dependence on the flight Mach number and altitude is derived. Static and dynamic simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed scheme.     

Convergence rates of Markov chain approximation methods for controlled diffusions with stopping

<正> This work is concerned with rates of convergence of numerical methods using Markov chainapproximation for controlled diffusions with stopping (the first exit time from a bounded region).In lieuof considering the associated finite difference schemes for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations,a purely probabilistic approach is used.There is an added difficulty due to the boundary condition,which requires the continuity of the first exit time with respect to the discrete parameter.To prove theconvergence of the algorithm by Markov chain approximation method,a tangency problem might arise.A common approach uses certain conditions to avoid the tangency problem.Here,by modifying thevalue function,it is demonstrated that the tangency problem will not arise in the sense of convergencein probability and in L~1.In addition,controlled diffusions with a discount factor is also treated.     

基于BDI智能体的无人作战飞机自主任务管理系统

无人作战飞机自主任务管理是减小平台对操作员依赖的关键之一.提出了基于BDI智能体的无人作战飞机自主任务管理系统体系结构.针对传统BDI解释器的缺陷,结合无人作战飞机应用的需求,设计,实现了一种并行的解释器实现结构,并给出了基本元动作定义.在此基础上讨论了无人作战飞机自主任务管理系统的功能设计与实现问题.初步仿真结果表明,平台能够对环境变化及用户指令做出正确反应.     

一种基于角色的协同仿真系统访问控制模型

针对当前协同仿真系统中的应用需求,提出并实现了一种基于角色的协同仿真系统访问控制模型.在这个模型中,通过建立用户.角色_权限三者之间的映射关系,并进行统一管理和维护,提高了协同操作中的灵活性和有序性.同时充分利用已有仿真系统的属性扩展特点,验证了该模型的可行性.     

Interaction model of artificial fish in virtual environment

Conventional artificial fish has some shortages on the interaction with environment, other fish, and the animator. This article proposes a multi-tier interaction control model of artificial fish, realizes the interaction model through integration of virtual reality technology and Markov sequence, and provides a virtual marine world to describe the interaction between artificial fish and the virtual environment and the interaction between the artificial fish and the animator. Simulation results show that the interaction model owns not only the basic characteristics of virtual biology, but also has high trueness interaction function.     

基于理性期望的利率期限结构预期理论与期限溢酬

推导了两种检验期限结构预期理论的方法.指出基于这些回归方程来检验预期理论,实际上是对理性期望、期限结构预期理论和期限溢酬不变的联合检验,实证研究中对预期理论的拒绝可能是由于未考虑到期限溢酬的时变性.在此基础上,基于Kalman滤波的期限溢酬估计模型.提出了一个利用即期利率数据.利用上海证券交易所国债交易数据对该模型进行实证研究,分析了该市场期限溢酬的行为特征.