MYH9 is a major-effect risk gene for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis

The increased burden of chronic kidney and end-stage kidney diseases (ESKD) in populations of African ancestry has been largely unexplained. To identify genetic variants predisposing to idiopathic and HIV-1-associated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), we carried out an admixture-mapping linkage-disequilibrium genome scan on 190 African American individuals with FSGS and 222 controls. We identified a chromosome 22 region with a genome-wide logarithm of the odds (lod) score of 9.2 and a peak lod of 12.4 centered on MYH9, a functional candidate gene expressed in kidney podocytes. Multiple MYH9 SNPs and haplotypes were recessively associated with FSGS, most strongly a haplotype spanning exons 14 through 23 (OR = 5.0, 95% CI = 3.5-7.1; P = 4 x 10(-23), n = 852). This association extended to hypertensive ESKD (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.5-3.4; n = 433), but not type 2 diabetic ESKD (n = 476). Genetic variation at the MYH9 locus substantially explains the increased burden of FSGS and hypertensive ESKD among African Americans.     

An asymmetric solar wind termination shock

Voyager 2 crossed the solar wind termination shock at 83.7 au in the southern hemisphere, approximately 10 au closer to the Sun than found by Voyager 1 in the north. This asymmetry could indicate an asymmetric pressure from an interstellar magnetic field, from transient-induced shock motion, or from the solar wind dynamic pressure. Here we report that the intensity of 4-5 MeV protons accelerated by the shock near Voyager 2 was three times that observed concurrently by Voyager 1, indicating differences in the shock at the two locations. (Companion papers report on the plasma, magnetic field, plasma-wave and lower energy particle observations at the shock.) Voyager 2 did not find the source of anomalous cosmic rays at the shock, suggesting that the source is elsewhere on the shock or in the heliosheath. The small intensity gradient of Galactic cosmic ray helium indicates that either the gradient is further out in the heliosheath or the local interstellar Galactic cosmic ray intensity is lower than expected.     

Surface plasmon subwavelength optics

Surface plasmons are waves that propagate along the surface of a conductor. By altering the structure of a metal's surface, the properties of surface plasmons--in particular their interaction with light--can be tailored, which offers the potential for developing new types of photonic device. This could lead to miniaturized photonic circuits with length scales that are much smaller than those currently achieved. Surface plasmons are being explored for their potential in subwavelength optics, data storage, light generation, microscopy and bio-photonics.     

An outlier robust hierarchical Bayes model for forecasting: the case of Hong Kong

This paper introduces a Bayesian forecasting model that accommodates innovative outliers. The hierarchical specification of prior distributions allows an identification of observations contaminated by these outliers and endogenously determines the hyperparameters of the Minnesota prior. Estimation and prediction are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The model forecasts the Hong Kong economy more accurately than the standard V AR and performs in line with other complicated BV AR models. It is also shown that the model is capable of finding most of the outliers in various simulation experiments. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From the editors

Political forecasting provides the contextuality needed for decision-making and for forecasting ‘non-political’ trends. To gear political forecasting to these needs, rather than mimicking approaches in other areas, requires recognition of the distinctive nature of political trends, and realism regarding forecast uses, which generally do not benefit from ‘precise’ probabilities, predictions of only major events, or ‘sophisticated’ methodology that sacrifices comprehensiveness for explicitness. Approaches borrowed from other forecasting disciplines have been counterproductive, although contextual approaches, including cross-impact analyses and developmental constructs that integrate political and non-political trends, are promising. Explorations of the consistency of scenario dynamics, taking into account policy responses and non-formalizable complexity, are also useful. Thus the separation of political forecasting from political analysis should be minimized, calling for a redirection of effort away from developing methodology uniquely geared to forecasting, and towards organizing more comprehensive and systematic analytical efforts.     

Atlantic overturning responses to Late Pleistocene climate forcings

The factors driving glacial changes in ocean overturning circulation are not well understood. On the basis of a comparison of 20 climate variables over the past four glacial cycles, the SPECMAP project proposed that summer insolation at high northern latitudes (that is, Milankovitch forcing) drives the same sequence of ocean circulation and other climate responses over 100-kyr eccentricity cycles, 41-kyr obliquity cycles and 23-kyr precession cycles. SPECMAP analysed the circulation response at only a few sites in the Atlantic Ocean, however, and the phase of circulation response has been shown to vary by site and orbital band. Here we test the SPECMAP hypothesis by measuring the phase of orbital responses in benthic delta(13)C (a proxy indicator of ocean nutrient content) at 24 sites throughout the Atlantic over the past 425 kyr. On the basis of delta(13)C responses at 3,000-4,010 m water depth, we find that maxima in Milankovitch forcing are associated with greater mid-depth overturning in the obliquity band but less overturning in the precession band. This suggests that Atlantic overturning is strongly sensitive to factors beyond ice volume and summer insolation at high northern latitudes. A better understanding of these processes could lead to improvements in model estimates of overturning rates, which range from a 40 per cent increase to a 40 per cent decrease at the Last Glacial Maximum and a 10-50 per cent decrease over the next 140 yr in response to projected increases in atmospheric CO(2) (ref. 4).     

Amplitude spectroscopy of a solid-state artificial atom

The energy-level structure of a quantum system, which has a fundamental role in its behaviour, can be observed as discrete lines and features in absorption and emission spectra. Conventionally, spectra are measured using frequency spectroscopy, whereby the frequency of a harmonic electromagnetic driving field is tuned into resonance with a particular separation between energy levels. Although this technique has been successfully employed in a variety of physical systems, including natural and artificial atoms and molecules, its application is not universally straightforward and becomes extremely challenging for frequencies in the range of tens to hundreds of gigahertz. Here we introduce a complementary approach, amplitude spectroscopy, whereby a harmonic driving field sweeps an artificial atom through the avoided crossings between energy levels at a fixed frequency. Spectroscopic information is obtained from the amplitude dependence of the system's response, thereby overcoming many of the limitations of a broadband-frequency-based approach. The resulting 'spectroscopy diamonds', the regions in parameter space where transitions between specific pairs of levels can occur, exhibit interference patterns and population inversion that serve to distinguish the atom's spectrum. Amplitude spectroscopy provides a means of manipulating and characterizing systems over an extremely broad bandwidth, using only a single driving frequency that may be orders of magnitude smaller than the energy scales being probed.