What is Sustainable Theory? A Luhmannian Perspective on the Science of Conceptual Systems

Sustainability is an important topic for understanding and developing our society (including business, government, and NGOs). For scholars who want their academic contributions to have an impact, sustainability is important for our conceptual systems (including theories, models, and policies). Because our conceptual systems share similarities with our social systems, we may investigate their characteristics to gain insight into how both may be achieved or at least understood. Theories of the humanities as well as the social/behavioral sciences are changing very rapidly. They are fragile and few seem to have any longevity. At the same time, the theoretical base does not seem to be “advancing.” They are not supporting highly effective results in the real world, so we continue to have seemingly insolvable problems such as crime, war, and poverty. This may be because academia has become inward-focused or, in Luhmann’s terminology, autonomous from the outside world. In seeking to understand how to develop more sustainable theories we found that the concept of sustainability is contested. And, in the process of comparing the sustainability of social systems to the sustainability of theories, we came to realize that neither perspective is viable. Drawing on Luhmann’s insights on the interdependence of theories and society, we came to realize that the two exist in a coevolutionary relationship. Importantly, we present an approach for measuring that evolution and suggest directions for accelerating the coevolutionary advance of society and science.     

Sex determination in mammals — Before and after the evolution of SRY

Therian mammals (marsupials and placentals) have an XX female: XY male sex chromosome system, which is homologous to autosomes in other vertebrates. The testis-determining gene, SRY, is conserved on the Y throughout therians, but is absent in other vertebrates, suggesting that the mammal system evolved about 310 million years ago (MYA). However, recent work on the basal monotreme mammals has completely changed our conception of how and when this change occurred. Platypus and echidna lack SRY, and the therian X and Y are represented by autosomes, implying that SRY evolved in therians after their divergence from monotremes only 166 MYA. Clues to the ancestral mechanism usurped by SRY in therians are provided by the monotremes, whose sex chromosomes are homologous to the ZW of birds. This suggests that the therian X and Y, and the SRY gene, evolved from an ancient bird-like sex chromosome system which predates the divergence of mammals and reptiles 310 MYA. Received 4 March 2008; received after revision 22 April 2008; accepted 3 June 2008     

A Limit to Our Thinking and Some Unanticipated Moral Consequences: A Science of Conceptual Systems Perspective with Some Potential Solutions

One paradox of modern society is the widespread use of highly complex mechanisms of economic and social self-regulation which produce a large number of unintended and often undesirable side-effects. Human conceptual systems (theories, policies, and mental models which support our thinking) are good enough to keep the self-regulatory mechanisms in operation; yet they are not good enough to prevent and control the undesirable contingencies. Systems thinking, and complexity science are growing in their usefulness for understanding our social systems as well as our conceptual systems. The present paper examines and explains this paradox by combining the ideas from the burgeoning science of conceptual systems and Niklas Luhmann’s social systems theory. Drawing on Luhmann’s argument that social systems build up their internal complexity by disregarding the complexity of the environment, we propose to differentiate between those conceptual systems that reflect the intra-systemic complexity of simpler systems and those that reflect the intra-systemic complexity of sub-systems in combination with systems of systems to include the environmental complexity. Thus it comes about that the former conceptual systems, exemplified by physics, are much more effective and successful than the latter ones, often corresponding to social sciences. The chasm between the qualities of these systems can be overcome by using the tools of Integrative Propositional Analysis.     

有限数学初学者向导：面向商业、管理及社会科学

有限数学涵盖了数学当中的许多离散情形，较之专门的离散数学其范围还要广一些，包括概率论及线性规划方面的部分内容。有限数学的内容基本上是商业、管理及一些社会科学中常用的数学知识，在这些领域有着广泛的应用。本书作为有限数学的入门教材，尽可能通俗易懂，避免复杂的公式和推导。如果要追求数学上的严谨性并深入了解其中的一些内容，     

Sources of error in forecasts and expectations: U.K. economic models, 1984–8

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the sources of error in forecasts for the UK economy published over a recent four-year period by four independent groups. This analysis rests on the archiving at the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau of the original forecasts together with all their accompanying assumptions and adjustments. A method of decomposing observed forecast errors so as to distinguish the contributions of forecaster and model is set out; the impact of future expectations treated in a ‘model-consistent’ or ‘rational’ manner is specifically considered. The results show that the forecaster's adjustments make a substantial contribution to forecast performance, a good part of which comes from adjustments that bring the model on track at the start of the forecast period. The published ex-ante forecasts are usually superior to pure model-based ex-post forecasts, whose performance indicates some misspecification of the underlying models.     

A physical map of the human genome

The human genome is by far the largest genome to be sequenced, and its size and complexity present many challenges for sequence assembly. The International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium constructed a map of the whole genome to enable the selection of clones for sequencing and for the accurate assembly of the genome sequence. Here we report the construction of the whole-genome bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) map and its integration with previous landmark maps and information from mapping efforts focused on specific chromosomal regions. We also describe the integration of sequence data with the map.