Dissecting the architecture of a quantitative trait locus in yeast

Most phenotypic diversity in natural populations is characterized by differences in degree rather than in kind. Identification of the actual genes underlying these quantitative traits has proved difficult. As a result, little is known about their genetic architecture. The failures are thought to be due to the different contributions of many underlying genes to the phenotype and the ability of different combinations of genes and environmental factors to produce similar phenotypes. This study combined genome-wide mapping and a new genetic technique named reciprocal-hemizygosity analysis to achieve the complete dissection of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. A QTL architecture was uncovered that was more complex than expected. Functional linkages both in cis and in trans were found between three tightly linked quantitative trait genes that are neither necessary nor sufficient in isolation. This arrangement of alleles explains heterosis (hybrid vigour), the increased fitness of the heterozygote compared with homozygotes. It also demonstrates a deficiency in current approaches to QTL dissection with implications extending to traits in other organisms, including human genetic diseases.     

A fractal forecasting model for financial time series

Financial market time series exhibit high degrees of non‐linear variability, and frequently have fractal properties. When the fractal dimension of a time series is non‐integer, this is associated with two features: (1) inhomogeneity—extreme fluctuations at irregular intervals, and (2) scaling symmetries—proportionality relationships between fluctuations over different separation distances. In multivariate systems such as financial markets, fractality is stochastic rather than deterministic, and generally originates as a result of multiplicative interactions. Volatility diffusion models with multiple stochastic factors can generate fractal structures. In some cases, such as exchange rates, the underlying structural equation also gives rise to fractality. Fractal principles can be used to develop forecasting algorithms. The forecasting method that yields the best results here is the state transition‐fitted residual scale ratio (ST‐FRSR) model. A state transition model is used to predict the conditional probability of extreme events. Ratios of rates of change at proximate separation distances are used to parameterize the scaling symmetries. Forecasting experiments are run using intraday exchange rate futures contracts measured at 15‐minute intervals. The overall forecast error is reduced on average by up to 7% and in one instance by nearly a quarter. However, the forecast error during the outlying events is reduced by 39% to 57%. The ST‐FRSR reduces the predictive error primarily by capturing extreme fluctuations more accurately. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.