Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

A multiple intelligent agent system for credit risk prediction via an optimization of localized generalization error with diversity

Company bankruptcies cost billions of dollars in losses to banks each year. Thus credit risk prediction is a critical part of a bank＇s loan approval decision process. Traditional financial models for credit risk prediction are no longer adequate for describing today＇s complex relationship between the financial health and potential bankruptcy of a company. In this work, a multiple classifier system （embedded in a multiple intelligent agent system） is proposed to predict the financial health of a company. In our model, each individual agent （classifier） makes a prediction on the likelihood of credit risk based on only partial information of the company. Each of the agents is an expert, but has limited knowledge （represented by features） about the company. The decisions of all agents are combined together to form a final credit risk prediction. Experiments show that our model out-performs other existing methods using the benchmarking Compustat American Corporations dataset.     

Integrative taxonomy at the nexus of population divergence and speciation in insular speckled rattlesnakes

ABSTRACT

We describe two diminutive species of rattlesnakes (genus Crotalus) from small nearshore islands off the coast of Baja California in the western Gulf of California, Mexico. In order to test the hypothesis that some island populations represent cohesive species entities, we applied linear discriminant analysis and uniform validation procedures to multiple classes of intrinsic trait data. By using previously recognised species to establish a threshold for species recognition, we found that assignment of specimens to either new species was as probable as with other established rattlesnake species within the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. We also found that assignment of specimens from other island populations was not as probable as for the established species, and these populations are referable to C. pyrrhus. The species endemic to Piojo Island is most closely related to other island and mainland populations of C. pyrrhus whereas the species endemic to Cabeza de Caballo Island is apparently most closely related to C. angelensis, a nearby island endemic of large body size. However, patterns from both mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies, and phenotypic variation, indicate that evolutionary trajectories of both of these species have been influenced by introgression from C. angelensis. We speculate that collective evidence based on contrasting patterns of nuclear and mitochondrial evolution supports a hybrid origin of the species from Cabeza de Caballo Island followed by exceptionally rapid mitochondrial evolution. Consistent with small body size, both species show a reduction in various scale counts relative to other species of the C. mitchellii species complex, suggesting that dwarfism is not simply a plastic response to insular conditions.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn.lsid:zoobank.org:pub:FBC8A11B-04A3-4231-85CA-3972DF5A42FF     

Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Neural Networks Considering Cointegration

This paper discusses techniques that might be helpful in predicting interest rates and tries to evaluate a new hybrid forecasting approach. Results of examining government bond yields in Germany and France reported in this study indicate that a hybrid forecasting approach which combines techniques of cointegration analysis with neural network (NN) forecasting models can produce superior results to the use of NN forecasting models alone. The findings documented in this paper could be a consequence of the fact that examining differenced data under certain conditions will lead to a loss of information and that the inclusion of the error correction term from the cointegration model can help to cope with this problem. The paper also discusses some possibly interesting directions for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predation on eggs of Schneider’s dwarf caiman,Paleosuchus trigonatus (Schneider, 1807), by armadillos and other predators

Nests of Schneider’s dwarf caiman, Paleosuchus trigonatus, were located in the forests around three streams that drain into the Xingu River, Brazilian Amazonia, in October 2014. Camera traps were installed at the edge of four nests to document predators and female parental care. At two nests, females unsuccessfully defended their nests against one or more giant armadillos, Priodontes maximus, and nine-banded armadillos, Dasypus novemcinctus. Both armadillo species responded to the attack by fleeing and returning on the opposite side of the nest by going around the tree under which the nest was located. Giant armadillos have never before been recorded consuming caiman eggs and their diet has been described as consisting mostly of ants and termites. Another species of armadillo, Cabassous unicinctus, was also registered digging into a nest and probably consuming eggs, though it is generally considered to be primarily insectivorous. A tayra (Eira barbara), lizard (Tupinambis teguixin) and coati (Nasua nasua) were also registered taking eggs from nests during the day, but we obtained no registers of nest defence by caimans during the day. The three nests were attacked after 60 days of incubation, when the eggs were well developed.     

Common loss-of-function variants of the epidermal barrier protein filaggrin are a major predisposing factor for atopic dermatitis

Atopic disease, including atopic dermatitis (eczema), allergy and asthma, has increased in frequency in recent decades and now affects approximately 20% of the population in the developed world. Twin and family studies have shown that predisposition to atopic disease is highly heritable. Although most genetic studies have focused on immunological mechanisms, a primary epithelial barrier defect has been anticipated. Filaggrin is a key protein that facilitates terminal differentiation of the epidermis and formation of the skin barrier. Here we show that two independent loss-of-function genetic variants (R510X and 2282del4) in the gene encoding filaggrin (FLG) are very strong predisposing factors for atopic dermatitis. These variants are carried by approximately 9% of people of European origin. These variants also show highly significant association with asthma occurring in the context of atopic dermatitis. This work establishes a key role for impaired skin barrier function in the development of atopic disease.     

Heritable germline epimutation of MSH2 in a family with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer

Epimutations in the germline, such as methylation of the MLH1 gene, may contribute to hereditary cancer syndrome in human, but their transmission to offspring has never been documented. Here we report a family with inheritance, in three successive generations, of germline allele-specific and mosaic hypermethylation of the MSH2 gene, without evidence of DNA mismatch repair gene mutation. Three siblings carrying the germline methylation developed early-onset colorectal or endometrial cancers, all with microsatellite instability and MSH2 protein loss. Clonal bisulfite sequencing and pyrosequencing showed different methylation levels in different somatic tissues, with the highest level recorded in rectal mucosa and colon cancer tissue, and the lowest in blood leukocytes. This mosaic state of germline methylation with different tissue distribution could act as the first hit and provide a mechanism for genetic disease inheritance that may deviate from the mendelian pattern and be overlooked in conventional leukocyte-based genetic diagnosis strategy.