Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

复合支护结构核爆冲击波等效静载的不确定性分析

根据中值点处展开的一次二阶矩法讨论了土中压缩波的升压时间及其不确定性，然后研究了按单自由度体系进行复合支护地下结构抗核爆设计时的动力系数（荷载系数）和等效静载的变异系数．数值结果表明，土中压缩波升压时间的不确定性，不仅与结构埋深和土参数的变异性有关，而且与土参数的均值有关，等效静载的不确定性，依赖于作用于结构上的动载变异性和结构自振频率变异性，而动载不确定性对等效静载变异性影响最大     

红色旅游发展模式探讨

美国、法国、德国等发达国家将历史传统教育置于亲身参与背景下,收到了很好的效果,积累了丰富的经验,提供了很好的借鉴。以革命纪念地、纪念物为载体的“红色旅游”是爱国主义教育、历史教育的重要组成部分,注重参与、体验的构建,“寓教于乐”,很可能是目前红色旅游的一个具有很大潜力的发展模式。     

计算学科中的实验体系

本文讨论了计算学科中的实验体系,阐述了建立实验体系的框架,进入实验规划和实施方案和内容,讨论了实验改革和创新的思路,以及建立软件实验、虚拟实验的探索和建立移动实验室的构想。     

Ruin Probability with Variable Premium Rate and Disturbed by Diffusion in a Markovian Environment

We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method.     

语言判断矩阵的一致性及相关问题研究

研究了语言判断矩阵的一致性及基于语言判断矩阵的方案排序问题.在给出语言判断矩阵有关概念的基础上,通过对有序语言短语集中的有序语言短语进行"量化",给出了语言间相互作用的运算定义,探讨了语言短语及语言判断矩阵的基本性质,进一步从理论上提出了语言判断矩阵完全一致性和满意一致性的概念;为了方便检验语言判断矩阵的一致性,通过引入导出矩阵的概念将语言判断矩阵转化为数量矩阵,并提出了语言判断矩阵完全一致性、满意一致性的简便的判定方法;针对基于语言判断矩阵的方案排序问题,根据导出矩阵的性质通过求解最大特征根,给出了一种简便的方案排序方法;最后通过两个算例说明了本文给出的一致性判定方法和方案排序方法.     

化学问题解决的“信息加工”策略

本文借鉴现代认知心理学的某些观点，结合例证阐述了复杂化学问题解决的“信息加工”策略：信息简约、信息类比、信息引伸、信息转换、信息评价等等．     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。