Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

氧化物半导瓷中晶界势垒的起源

提出了一个关于氧化物半导瓷晶界势垒起源的新观点，认为晶界势垒起源于烧结过程中外界氧在晶界中的扩散，与材料的结构、化学缺陷、掺杂、外界气氛、烧结工艺、组成状态等有密切关系，并用此理论解释了许多实验现象。     

交织扩展Golay码编译码器实现方案的研究

论述了交织编码的工作原理，给出了一种交织扩展Ｇｏｌａｙ码的改进型软件设计方案，用ＴＭＳ３２０Ｃ２５实现了其编译码器并给出了模拟实验结果。实验结果表明，它能准确地纠正不大于７２比特位的差错；处理１２８×１２８×８比特位的一幅图像数据的运行时间为０．４１２ｓ．     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

激光开槽、埋槽电极硅太阳电池

报道一种新颖的激光开槽、埋槽电极硅太阳电池的结构、工艺流程及其研制结果。在ＡＭ１．５，２５℃，１００ｍＷ／ｃｍ２的条件下，以面积为４５ｃｍ３的３６片硅片研制的硅太阳电池的输出参数的平均值为ＪＳＣ＝３６．１ｍＡ／ｃｍ２，Ｖ∞＝６３３ｍＶ，Ｆ．Ｆ．＝０．７９８，η＝１８．２３％，最后分析了种高性能硅太阳电池的设计特点。     

在UBBE框架下考虑不肯定的上界的估计方法

对目前的ＵＢＢＥ模型进行了适当的推广，使在解决估计问题时可以考虑那些可能是误差上界的数值，并在此基础上提出了一种方法，能够通过对估计精度和可靠性进行合理的权衡确定所需估计值，实际案例研究结果表明所提方法能够较好地解决估计精度和可靠性之间的矛盾。