On the verge of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Umdeutung</Emphasis> in Minnesota: Van Vleck and the correspondence principle. Part one

In October 1924, The Physical Review, a relatively minor journal at the time, published a remarkable two-part paper by John H. Van Vleck, working in virtual isolation at the University of Minnesota. Using Bohr’s correspondence principle and Einstein’s quantum theory of radiation along with advanced techniques from classical mechanics, Van Vleck showed that quantum formulae for emission, absorption, and dispersion of radiation merge with their classical counterparts in the limit of high quantum numbers. For modern readers Van Vleck’s paper is much easier to follow than the famous paper by Kramers and Heisenberg on dispersion theory, which covers similar terrain and is widely credited to have led directly to Heisenberg’s Umdeutung paper. This makes Van Vleck’s paper extremely valuable for the reconstruction of the genesis of matrix mechanics. It also makes it tempting to ask why Van Vleck did not take the next step and develop matrix mechanics himself. This paper was written as part of a joint project in the history of quantum physics of the Max Planck Institut für Wissenschaftsgeschichte and the Fritz-Haber-Institut in Berlin.     

Der Einfluß der Nebenniere auf die Kreislaufwirkung des Adrenalins

Summary Traces of nor-adrenaline restore the vascular action of adrenaline altered in epinephrectomized dogs to the reaction of the normal animal. Therefore it is claimed that the adrenals discharge one or several substances into the blood stream, which are necessary for the usual peripheral vascular action of adrenaline. Further investigations are in progress.     

Notizie preliminari sull'azione fitodinamica dell'acido difenililacetico sulla pianta del tabacco

Summary The application of diphenylilacetic acid has shown favorable effects on the growth of tobacco plants. Solutions containing 10 p.p.m. and 20 p.p.m. produce, in weight, an almost double growth in treated plants in comparison with the controls. Diphenylilacetic acid can be considered as a growth-promoting substance. The data are not definite.     

Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.